Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3031 - 2981

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

I'm hoping that hurrkat gets banned personally.. why are the mod's ignoring him? All he does is downcast the season and call the mets wrong when he said no storms until August and two days later we had Bonnie, and remember when he said when Bonnie was in the Gulf that Bonnie would blow up? He's never right, he just comes on here to troll the blog and it works. Report, ignore, repeat.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
3028. Fluid
Like BP, NOAA requires scientists to sign contracts preventing release of their findings

http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/like-bp-noaa-requires-scientists-to-sign-contracts-preventing-rel ease-of-their-findings
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
another typical sunny afternoon in sarasota,notice the seabreeze building!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3025. hcubed
Quoting hurrkat05:
im not downcasting the season im still predicting 13 storms and thats not downcasting the season..


I'm personally hoping for 14 storms.

Just because...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, I am totally hip with "thingy" so "thingamabob" really shouldn't be so hard for me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS para shows a 1010 mb low, its something. ECMWF shows a disturbance off Africa. Its something Ike, the models don't have to show a Category 300+ roaring across the Atlantic for something to happen like a lot believe, remember NO model developed Bonnie except the CMC.
Exactly right!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3020. MahFL
The CMC is on crack !....but we love it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3012. Sounds more like a drill. Anyways, later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3017. MahFL
We are watching people downcast the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3015. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE...AND ACROSS THE W PORTION TUE
NIGHT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST WED. A HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH FRI AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE
PORTION.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS TUESDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS WAVE
SHOULD APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE FRI.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3014. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


No....it's 2-1-0 right now.

Latest CMC spins up a couple.


It always does.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


No....it's 2-1-0 right now.

Latest CMC spins up a couple.


GFS para shows a 1010 mb low, its something. ECMWF shows a disturbance off Africa. Its something Ike, the models don't have to show a Category 300+ roaring across the Atlantic for something to happen like a lot believe, remember NO model developed Bonnie except the CMC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
3011. fire635
Quoting StormW:


More toward the 3rd week of August.


Can we make it the 2nd week of September please? I have a honeymoon in Jamaica 8/29-9/5. Thanks in advance. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3010. cg2916
Quoting hurrkat05:
it looks pretty bleak for most of august with dust and shear ruling the tropics..i look for some action in the gom around the middle of august...i can't see nothing forming off the coast of africa until late august when the dust will start to calm down...im looking for maybe 3 storms to form in the month of august and 2 will reach hurricane force...2 will form in the gom...guys and storm w you in in for a nice vacation...im still sticking to my original 13 storms for the year and thats being generous....


Dust will go away, so will shear, the high is due to the La Nina, it moves in August. Listen to Storm, he's got a lot of experience, and he still thinks, along with most of us, that we will still have an active season. I'm thinking somewhere near 2004, or 2007, maybe a bit higher.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Best post of the blog there, folks.

(good job, Flood!)


: )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3007. IKE
Quoting ElConando:


At least we don't have to see you post 0-0-0 anymore :)


No....it's 2-1-0 right now.

Latest CMC spins up a couple.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KimberlyB:




My Fibromyalgia is the same way. My family refers to me as "The Walking Barometer"!

I'm surprised there are not more folks on here yelling about how the season is a bust and nothing is ever going to form, ever, ever, EVER! I'm glad, but surprised.


WUMail, dear!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting KimberlyB:


Sorry about that. I didn't see the sarcasm flag until it was too late. lol

LOL. It's ok. You are very sweet for helping. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3003. cg2916
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"I love being bored"


If it's in the tropics, then yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS operational....yawn.
12Z GFS parallel.......yawn.


At least we don't have to see you post 0-0-0 anymore :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"I love being bored"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2999. cg2916
Quoting ElConando:


A Wave that is now over the Yucatan. Has a very low chance of developing over the BOC due to hostile upper level conditions.


Looks, I repeat, looks like a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
Anything at all that we're watching?


A Wave that is now over the Yucatan. Has a very low chance of developing over the BOC due to hostile upper level conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2996. IKE
12Z GFS operational....yawn.
12Z GFS parallel.......yawn.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormGoddess:

Yes, Storm's list of terms is really nice. Actually it is the "thingamabob" and the "doodad" that have me discombobulated.


Sorry about that. I didn't see the sarcasm flag until it was too late. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2994. alcomat
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Whs, it's their job to make sure everyone stays safe. In your eyes, Bonnie wasn't what you expected. It was mainly disorganized, weak, and many people thought it would be another Katrina. That wasn't the case and I think it's time for you to move on from Bonnie.
most of them were wishcasting a katrina!..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a pinhole eye!

oh wait, that's a dot on my monitor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
OMG

..it is 5 minutes to first Lunch.


Oh! Better hurry! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KimberlyB:


If you check out StormW's blog, he starts them with a list of "technical" terms. It's been a big help to me.

While there, make sure you read his blogs. Very informative, well written and easily accessible to folks who are learning.

Yes, Storm's list of terms is really nice. Actually it is the "thingamabob" and the "doodad" that have me discombobulated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2990. cg2916
Anything at all that we're watching?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


PLease use the correct terminology; the tripole is a thingie as opposed to say the MJO, which is, as all of us know, a doodad

LOL

Best post of the blog there, folks.

(good job, Flood!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:
Hey there everybody. Wow, ya'll are using some really big words and a lot of technical jargon in here today that I'm not at all familiar with. This is really challenging. I'm kinda overwhelmed. lol


If you check out StormW's blog, he starts them with a list of "technical" terms. It's been a big help to me.

While there, make sure you read his blogs. Very informative, well written and easily accessible to folks who are learning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2987. Patrap
OMG

..it is 5 minutes to first Lunch.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2986. beell
Quoting Floodman:


You can substitute the more archaic "thingamabob"; not as accurate but still acceptable...


Always thought that was a 1955 Ford counterbalancer idler shaft adjustment lever.

Thank you both for setting me straight.
A commitment to lunch here-enjoy the day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey there everybody. Wow, ya'll are using some really big words and a lot of technical jargon in here today that I'm not at all familiar with. This is really challenging. I'm kinda overwhelmed. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Not too bad...since my surgery my back has become something of a weather staton and by the feel of things this morning, I believe we're coming on some rain (as my grandad would have said)...

Things aren't bad, as things go...LOL


Quoting StormW:


I hear ya! My right knee is the same way.


My Fibromyalgia is the same way. My family refers to me as "The Walking Barometer"!

I'm surprised there are not more folks on here yelling about how the season is a bust and nothing is ever going to form, ever, ever, EVER! I'm glad, but surprised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2982. Snowmog
Great post Storm! clear and scientific, just like I like it, thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3031 - 2981

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.