Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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don-vito-city???
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rob, its vortivity not vitocity
It's not vortivity either, it's VORTICITY. LOL!
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3078. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rob, its vortivity not vitocity


LOL.

Vorticity? ^.^
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Well you guys have a great day. You know how they say a watched kettle never boils? Ok, so I have a real hard eye on the tropics so maybe it won't boil over. lol Unfortunately though Colin is out there waiting in the wings and he is brewing up in secret at the moment feels like. Might pop up close to home. Check back later you guys. Over and out.
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Quoting btwntx08:
this blob over the yuactan has the greatest 850 mb vitocity right now


Rob, its vorticity not vitocity
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Quoting hurrkat05:
mississippi i did maybe you didnt see it ...i said the dust will hamper the cape verdes season and shear will rule the caribbean ...the only chance in august is a stalled front in the gom...i said we would have 3 storms in august ...dr gray will come down on his prediction now you are caught up to date...


Good luck with that...
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3071. alcomat
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is a shot of me during the peak of Bonnie.

ROFLAO !!! thats funny !
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Afternoon, everyone.

I see the boredom debate is here. In other words, the active-not active debate is in full swing. The problem with the "non-active" debate crew is that they consistently post no evidence to support their claims.
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Drama in the tropics.
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Quoting btwntx08:

Now if only the entire Caribbean and the GOM was filled with all that dust and shear we would be alright. But unfortunately, it's not.
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3062. IKE
Here's the parallel 12Z GFS through 384 hours(August 11th)...Link
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3060. MTWX
I was hoping for a little more rain out of Bonnie for us, but I guess every little bit counts.
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Afternoon all. Thank you Storm for your season update. Very informative as always.

What's up with the "blob" over the Yucatan? ULL?

Thanks ;)
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Quoting StormW:


Just part of the early pattern during a La Nina.


Thanks chief!
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For that sake hurrkat, I pray there is 18 fish storms.. just so you can go away. But I'm sure you'll just come back with another alt just like the last 5 years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think you may have accidently contradicted yourself.
LOL, might have sounded that way. I'm just saying that we should look at the consistencies seen on the parallel GFS with the CV systems. The operational GFS is the one which I don't consider reliable.
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3053. Levi32
Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 26th, with Video
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I love how hurrkat thinks he knows everything. I see a scary August for us ladies and gents.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think you may have accidently contradicted yourself.


First he mentioned the parallel then the operational. GFS parallel will replace the operational tomorrow at 12z IIRC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Quoting hurrkat05:
i see that storm w and you are right but come august just like last year it will be there...the shear will also rule storm..storm im not tryng to cause problems it's what i see ..i tell you what storm if 18 storms form this year i will delete my profile and never come back again...fair enough..


You seriously are immature. The point is, whether or not conditions are favorable, we will always see some type of activity, whether it be below average, average, or above average. Most experts believed that we will see an above average season. Most are in fair agreement. All you do is run on this blog and meddle around pointlessly.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought the GFS was crap? :P
LOL, when I said reliable I was thinking like the GFDL or ECMWF.
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hi dust meet mr wind shear
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Quoting IKE:


I've seen the GFS do it numerous times. It's been accused of spinning of ghost storms.

I have seen it right on with storms like Felix and Dean.

Sorry...a 1010 mb low on the GFS is as common as the sun rises in the east.


I thought the GFS was crap? :P
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
3043. MTWX
Quoting hcubed:


I'm personally hoping for 14 storms.

Just because...

Love the Avatar. Where are you stationed??
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Quoting IKE:


I've seen the GFS do it numerous times. It's been accused of spinning of ghost storms.

I have seen it right on with storms like Felix and Dean.

Sorry...a 1010 mb low on the GFS is as common as the sun rises in the east.
It is something and should be looked at for consistency. For example the GFS has been hinting at a CV system for quite some time now. And I myself wouldn't consider the operational GFS as a reliable model, the parallel in my eyes is a little bit better.
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3037. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Also, every cyclogenesis on a model is going to start off as a weak system and then as consistency continues the model will build up on strength with every run and on from there. I don't think I've ever seen a reliable model take a cyclone from a disturbance to a category 3 in the same run.


I've seen the GFS do it numerous times. It's been accused of spinning of ghost storms.

I have seen it right on with storms like Felix and Dean.

Sorry...a 1010 mb low on the GFS is as common as the sun rises in the east.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm hoping that hurrkat gets banned personally.. why are the mod's ignoring him? All he does is downcast the season and call the mets wrong when he said no storms until August and two days later we had Bonnie, and remember when he said when Bonnie was in the Gulf that Bonnie would blow up? He's never right, he just comes on here to troll the blog and it works. Report, ignore, repeat.
I don't ignore him because then I wouldn't be able to report him. (He's a good source of comedy though, but unlike many I try not to interact with him).
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Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurrkat05:
it looks pretty bleak for most of august with dust and shear ruling the tropics..i look for some action in the gom around the middle of august...i can't see nothing forming off the coast of africa until late august when the dust will start to calm down...im looking for maybe 3 storms to form in the month of august and 2 will reach hurricane force...2 will form in the gom...guys and storm w you in in for a nice vacation...im still sticking to my original 13 storms for the year and thats being generous....



Read...learn.

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 26, 2010 ISSUED 11:50 A.M.


You can't teach stormcat anything...he already knows it all!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS para shows a 1010 mb low, its something. ECMWF shows a disturbance off Africa. Its something Ike, the models don't have to show a Category 300+ roaring across the Atlantic for something to happen like a lot believe, remember NO model developed Bonnie except the CMC.
Also, every cyclogenesis on a model is going to start off as a weak system and then as consistency continues the model will build up on strength with every run and on from there. I don't think I've ever seen a reliable model take a cyclone from a disturbance to a category 3 in the same run.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.