Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3131. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


Watched the Tidbit today, getting better with each one.


Thanks :)
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Quoting Levi32:


LOL.

Vorticity? ^.^


Hmmmmmm....
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3127. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


What wave?


What he said, the wave by the Yucatan. Observe.
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Quoting StormW:


What wave?
The one just to the east of the Yucatan.
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3124. CJC111
StormW, your synopsis has a little bite to it today. I like it.
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Quoting ElConando:


Watched the Tidbit today, getting better with each one.
I'm reading some of his older tidbits and it's amazing how much extra knowledge he has acquired since the beginning to now.
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Quoting Levi32:


LOL.

Vorticity? ^.^


Watched the Tidbit today, getting better with each one.
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im still likeing my forecast 10-4-2 dust and upperlow shear still prevails and it looks to stay the same for awhile.wave by yucatan is good but guess what? Upperlow is bad for it!
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3116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting fallinstorms:
nhc is so bored

they naming thunderstorms on land invest

they know this is a flop of a season


yep sure
whatever you say
i will remember that
when there scraping your corspe
off the ground somewhere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
Quoting btwntx08:

?????
We really have to start using the ignore function be it by pressing "ignore user" or by having the mental control to just ignore them.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
nhc is so bored

they naming thunderstorms on land invest

they know this is a flop of a season



How can you say that? The season is just getting underway.
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3113. hcubed
Keesler.

Currently a civilain instructor of Electronics.

Former AF, Ret.
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3112. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't know why more people don't use the ignore function between their ears.


Because they can't help themselves. I'm like you...why report anyone because of their opinion on the season.

I'm up for seeing a healthy storm that bothers no one in the Atlantic. I just don't see it from reliable models yet, excluding Alex.

And models can be reliable. Just ask the NHC on Bonnie...."WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Colin...as in Colonoscopy.


Yikes. That storm promises to be an ***hole!
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Quoting fallinstorms:
there is nothing
there is not going to be anything

don't waste your time

the condition are toxic this year


I see we have two of the biggest trolls with us today. Fallinstorms and hurrkat.
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Quoting IKE:


And if someone doesn't like what I or anyone says, stick em on ignore. Yeah...I know, if someone quotes them you still see it.


Don't know why more people don't use the ignore function between their ears.
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Quoting DestinJeff:




Action:
Quote
| Ignore User




LOL. Thanks, Jeff. I needed that.
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3102. IKE
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Just curious, what is the name of this year's C Storm? It would have been Charley (as in 98 an 04) but I believe Charley has been retired (and justifiably so).


Colin...as in Colonoscopy.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting btwntx08:
hurrkat is always wrong period look had 2 prediction with bonnie couldnt stick to the right plan i forecast better than he/she haha


As some wise person re-stated the other day, even blind squirrels sometimes find an acorn; hurrkat has the credibility of a fortune cookie, but lacks the accountability of one. Even were s/he not to post such grating, acerbic commentary, it's very boorish to always toot one's horn...especially when that horn is wrong 90% of the time. As I and others have said before: just ignore him/her, and eventualy s/he'll go away.

On a different note: yes, it's possible/likely that Dr. Gray will lower his numbers next week; he always raises or lowers his forecast based on the season's history. But even if he does, I'd like to go on record as noting that Dr. Gray's numbers are seldom dead on, meaning that he's as susceptible to mis-forecasting as is anybody else. (Too, he seems to be completely off base about GW, so that further lowers his credibility...at least in my eyes.)
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Just curious, what is the name of this year's C Storm? It would have been Charley (as in 98 an 04) but I believe Charley has been retired (and justifiably so).


Colin
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3098. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I don't get the requests to ban someone because you don't agree with them. As long as they don't violate Dr. Masters "rules of the road" it should not matter. Doesn't matter if you get your forecast from a pair of dice, weegie board or pull it out your......


And if someone doesn't like what I or anyone says, stick em on ignore. Yeah...I know, if someone quotes them you still see it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting btwntx08:
this blob over the yuactan has the greatest 850 mb vitocity right now
looks better than bonnie. lol:)i got higher winds from my fan than with bonnie:)
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Quoting hurrkat05:
yes i did caneswatch i was talking about august on the dust..


Well, idk about you but, once it leaves, it leaves.
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Just curious, what is the name of this year's C Storm? It would have been Charley (as in 98 an 04) but I believe Charley has been retired (and justifiably so).
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Quoting DestinJeff:


what about Viscocity?
Doesn't that mean "thick"? LOL.
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3090. IKE
Here's some 48 hour evidence from the official source...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting btwntx08:

i know cody just like saying it that way also u still miss it by a letter "vorticity"
Well please don't. You're going to end up confusing some people.
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Quoting Levi32:


LOL.

Vorticity? ^.^


lol, yeah.
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I don't get the requests to ban someone because you don't agree with them. As long as they don't violate Dr. Masters "rules of the road" it should not matter. Doesn't matter if you get your forecast from a pair of dice, weegie board or pull it out your......
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Wow clap it up for hurrkat. I don't know if you haven't seen, but most of the dust is gone from CV and the Atlantic.
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don-vito-city???
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.