Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:



AH AH


Oops.
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look be low where i under line in the bold


Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are:


Niño 4 -0.6ºC

Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC

Niño 3 -1.1ºC

Niño1+2 -2.0ºC
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3179. Patrap


K NOAA Photo Index Map..thumbails to LARGE.


Pass da tabasco,,these beans need it.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


You are quite the wordsmith there, Ike.


LOL! Ain't the prettiest picture I've ever seen! Thank goodness I'm still too young for one of those things.
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My prediction from May, remains in tact right now for the rest of the season...

Photobucket

15-18 Storms, 9-10 Hurricanes, and 5 Majors

A very REASONABLE prediction if you ask me concerning the water temps and favorable conditions for the next few months.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
it looks pretty bleak for most of august with dust and shear ruling the tropics..i look for some action in the gom around the middle of august...i can't see nothing forming off the coast of africa until late august when the dust will start to calm down...im looking for maybe 3 storms to form in the month of august and 2 will reach hurricane force...2 will form in the gom...guys and storm w you in in for a nice vacation...im still sticking to my original 13 storms for the year and thats being generous....


You should create your own blog with da facts that back up your prediction.. I mean that's what the other mets (soon to be mets) do... Its easy to sit and point out things with out facts... You could be right but what do you have behind it?? I mean even my kids still say "because I said so" with nothing behind it.... Instead of just sheering everyone elses off... Put yours out there for sheering... So to speak of coarse

Best of all it is free and available right here on WUNDERGROUND.com
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?

We have some thick skulls here. Why can't we all read StormW synopsis?


Amen to that.
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Need to start watching gulf once that system crosses over Yucatan
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?

We have some thick skulls here. Why can't we all read StormW synopsis?


Agreed....very informative AND easy to understand, therefore...even the hard headed trolls should be able to understand it. :)

Good tidbit by the way!
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3171. Patrap
Yeah,,K missed us completely .Video taken by Guerra

Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.




Video of the 17th street canal floodwall collapsing. taken by New Orleans firefighters during Katrina.



Some of us had floodwaters water on folks Graves in NOLA and Waveland.


But do go on....

tell us what you saw ,,beside CNN.




Or maybe do a entry on it.

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Don't know how to spell caster
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Downcast....


j/k



AH AH
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only going to have five names storms this year.




downcaster
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only going to have five names storms this year.


More and more trolls? Geez...........
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only going to have five names storms this year.
Why?

We have some thick skulls here. Why can't we all read StormWs' synopsis'?
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Quoting fallinstorms:


upcaster!


Downcaster....


j/k
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Quoting fallinstorms:


upcaster!



downcaster
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here comes AUG all YAY
Then comes Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec and then all over again, O.K.
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3160. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


By George Levi, thanks for the sat pic. They did something squirrely like that earlier. I believe it was with Alex...accept they kept mentioning a tropical wave, and it was clear that the wave had moved WNW, and the energy that developed Alex was still over the Caribbean. Appreciate the second look.


Indeed. No problem :)
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this is where will see are 1st cat 5
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AUG will be vary busy
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here comes AUG all YAY
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am forcasting 20 name storms this year and i am being nic
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3151. Max1023
3145 - June and December are not far apart in TC frequency, we saw a Hurricane form in June.
La Nina combined with the warmer than normal SST's will lower shear over enough warm water to allow a storm to form in December. The 26 degree line will be far enough north to allow development north of the islands as well as in the carribean if pockets of low shear persist.
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3148. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:
Hey, Ike:

About Colin. Fast forward to 3:51. :-)

Link


LOL...I've had one. Worst part is drinking the junk they give you the day before. You're asleep when they do the dirty work.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3147. Max1023
Quoting fallinstorms:
1 Storms in August
1 Storms in September
0Storms in October
0 Storms in November
0 Storm in either Late July or December

3--6 Storms in 2010

1 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes

my prediction


Yours is as good as mine, as long as you are serious. I would like to see a September with only one named storm though. That time of year a TC can form over a floating bathtub with a fan blowing upwards.
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Long time lurker with a comment/question. It seems to me that some storms just over achieve while some underachieve. Take Katrina for example: She was a small storm approcahing Broward/Palm Beach and then it wallopped South Dade. It went on to Hit New Orleans and we all know how that went. Then we see Bonnie who never quite got going and then died in the gulf. Is there any data to show that some storms have good bones or seem to grow despite poor conditions while other storms never grow despite favorable conditions. Just wondering while we are in a "slow period". I appreciate all the good info I read on here and ignore the other stuff.
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1 Storm in either Late July or December

15 - 20 Storms in 2010

7-10 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

My personal Prediction.

PS: I am not a Met

one storm in December? wow?
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2005 really spoiled a lot of people on here. Expect a wild August folks!
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3141. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N25W TO 11N27W MOVING W 10-15
KT. UPON ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IT IS DETERMINED THERE IS A NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR 17N27W AND A WEAKER SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 8N31W.
THEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED AT 26/1800 UTC TO REFLECT
THE THAT POSITION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SURGE
AND UPON ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS WEAK AND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED AT 26/1800
UTC TO REFLECT THE THAT POSITION.


They never admitted that it was separate from Bonnie back when it was hanging onto Bonnie's skirts in the eastern Caribbean. This image is from July 21st:

It was a weak wave that followed behind Bonnie and became unmistakably a separate entity that has traveled westward across the Caribbean and is now moving over the Yucatan. They label these things surface troughs when they suddenly analyze them out of the blue without admitting that they were trackable long before this.


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Hey, Ike:

About Colin. Fast forward to 3:51. :-)

Link
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3136. Max1023
3-4 Storms in August
5-7 Storms in September
3-4 Storms in October
1-2 Storms in November
1 Storm in either Late July or December

15 - 20 Storms in 2010

7-10 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

My personal Prediction.

PS: I am not a Met
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Quoting sflawavedude:
im still likeing my forecast 10-4-2 dust and upperlow shear still prevails and it looks to stay the same for awhile.wave by yucatan is good but guess what? Upperlow is bad for it!


More trolls - POOF
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3133. IKE
From the 2:05 pm EDST discussion.....

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN.A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NE
OF THE AZORES AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N70W WITH
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN ALONG 31N54W TO 27N60W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good afternooon.....the dust currently in the Mid Atlantic is known as the SAL?

Does that stand for South American Low? And is it due to the winds flowing clockwise over Africa kicking up dust?

Also, don't storms rely on some dust to form? So if the too much dust relaxes, which is showing signs of it doing so in mid August, the storms over Africa should hold steady then?
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3131. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


Watched the Tidbit today, getting better with each one.


Thanks :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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