Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3231. Levi32
Quoting sailingallover:

Although the origin of what is over the Yucatan is from the energy that was left behind from the wave that became Bonnie..
There was no wave that ran into the back of Bonnie. It was an induced trough from the convection that sat over us for a 3 days as the trades brought more warm air in behind over the outflow. Back when that was all happening and few people saw the trough and convection and were talking about it developing I posted the ASCATs and Surface analysis for it etc.
The last post of the series was "lets see how it does on it's own" and the other stuff is in front of that..day after is got an AOI with less that 1% chance


Um no, there was a weak tropical wave behind Bonnie that was trackable behind her across the Atlantic. It was not a fracture they were always separate. I've been tracking it forever now.

July 20th....





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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?


I was checking that out this morning. Just depends on what the upper level winds will do?
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Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?
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Quoting reedzone:
In fact, if you wanna dig up info on me, I only said that Bonnie had a 50/50 chance of being a Hurricane, and it didn't happen. I never hyped this storm up, I was being conservative because with the ULL to it's west, there was no telling what could happen. I never pointed at a "Katrina" like storm, I did say that it could ramp up quickly if the ULL kept moving away, but then it stalled. I'm sorry if I somehow "annoyed" you with my prediction which is an opinion, not a statement.
Reed, this is from a typical lurker. You seem to be a bright young fellow...please stop using "I" so many times in your sentencing. It make you sound either whinney or arrogant. You used it 8 times in the above quote.
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StormW,

Have you ever seen so much dry air over the Atlantic off the African coast for this time of year and for this long?

Also, do you see changes in the upper level winds over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa?

Everything that comes off the coast is getting sheared to an oblivion.
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3224. xcool
next ECMWF
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3222. xcool
get ready kaboom
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3220. MTWX
Quoting reedzone:


Ok, just wondering cause I didn't get any replies like most people do

dont worry... I rarely get replies too
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3218. xcool
cv storms cmc ngp gfs
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3217. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. I have a clip for that one too.

Link


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I must say the pacific is looking a little nippy.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Not me.


Ok, just wondering cause I didn't get any replies like most people do
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Quoting KimberlyB:


Not that I'm someone your worried about ignoring you, but I didn't ignore you. I'll never ignore just because a storm proved someone wrong. I only ignore when someone is being caustic for no reason, attacking others for no reason or making ridiculous claims that tie up blog space or endanger lives if folks believe them. This does not apply to you.


Thanks, I only attack those who make bold downcasting or even wishcasting statements.
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3212. xcool
Convection in Yucatan?
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Quoting Levi32:


They never admitted that it was separate from Bonnie back when it was hanging onto Bonnie's skirts in the eastern Caribbean. This image is from July 21st:

It was a weak wave that followed behind Bonnie and became unmistakably a separate entity that has traveled westward across the Caribbean and is now moving over the Yucatan. They label these things surface troughs when they suddenly analyze them out of the blue without admitting that they were trackable long before this.



Although the origin of what is over the Yucatan is from the energy that was left behind from the wave that became Bonnie..
There was no wave that ran into the back of Bonnie. It was an induced trough from the convection that sat over us for a 3 days as the trades brought more warm air in behind over the outflow. Back when that was all happening and few people saw the trough and convection and were talking about it developing I posted the ASCATs and Surface analysis for it etc.
The last post of the series was "lets see how it does on it's own" and the other stuff is in front of that..day after is got an AOI with less that 1% chance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In fact, if you wanna dig up info on me, I only said that Bonnie had a 50/50 chance of being a Hurricane, and it didn't happen. I never hyped this storm up, I was being conservative because with the ULL to it's west, there was no telling what could happen. I never pointed at a "Katrina" like storm, I did say that it could ramp up quickly if the ULL kept moving away, but then it stalled. I'm sorry if I somehow "annoyed" you with my prediction which is an opinion, not a statement.
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Quoting reedzone:
:O wow, you all did put me on ignore.. All I did was make a prediction, I never said Bonnie was going to be a Hurricane..


Not that I'm someone your worried about ignoring you, but I didn't ignore you. I'll never ignore just because a storm proved someone wrong. I only ignore when someone is being caustic for no reason, attacking others for no reason or making ridiculous claims that tie up blog space or endanger lives if folks believe them. This does not apply to you.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Not me.


Me neither
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3205. xcool


eat your heart out lolol



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Quoting reedzone:
:O wow, you all did put me on ignore.. All I did was make a prediction, I never said Bonnie was going to be a Hurricane..


Not me.
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Quoting btwntx08:



WOW where going too flood
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:O wow, you all did put me on ignore.. All I did was make a prediction, I never said Bonnie was going to be a Hurricane..
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Quoting WellingtonR:
Long time lurker with a comment/question. It seems to me that some storms just over achieve while some underachieve. Take Katrina for example: She was a small storm approcahing Broward/Palm Beach and then it wallopped South Dade. It went on to Hit New Orleans and we all know how that went. Then we see Bonnie who never quite got going and then died in the gulf. Is there any data to show that some storms have good bones or seem to grow despite poor conditions while other storms never grow despite favorable conditions. Just wondering while we are in a "slow period". I appreciate all the good info I read on here and ignore the other stuff.


I think something important to mention that may seem like common sense but we often time forget, weather is a science. There is a direct cause and effect relationship that occurs governed by the laws of physics. While we give storms names and we personify them like they can actually make choices, they can not. What I'm trying to say is, certain storms don't decide to fight harder than others, or more stubborn than others. Global effects and changes, most of which we don't understand or have any idea of, control what systems do. If another wave is exactly the same (even if it is actually a different wave) in identical conditions, it will do exactly the samething as the last one.

We are but small children on this planet we live on, even though we like to act like adults that know it all.
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who me
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Quoting IKE:


They'll check that prostate at age 40+ and you're awake for that event.


LOL. I have a clip for that one too.

Link
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8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN
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3195. MTWX
Quoting hcubed:
Keesler.

Currently a civilain instructor of Electronics.

Former AF, Ret.

EP?? I'm stationed at Columbus AFB... Airfield Systems Technician ( prior METNAV)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?

We have some thick skulls here. Why can't we all read StormWs' synopsis'?


These thick skulls are too lazy to do any reading..... Thus the idiotic posts you see on here.....
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3192. OneDrop
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only going to have five names storms this year.

Do you not get enough attention in your life? Seriously, just look at you screen name and you can see why you're wrong.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
mississippi i did maybe you didnt see it ...i said the dust will hamper the cape verdes season and shear will rule the caribbean ...the only chance in august is a stalled front in the gom...i said we would have 3 storms in august ...dr gray will come down on his prediction now you are caught up to date...


Wow, can I use your crystal ball for a while?
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Quoting tkeith:
Fallinstorms, could you tell me when we're gonna get that September storm. My wife wants to go to Negril for a vactaion in Sept. and if I knew when the Sept. storm was comin through, I could book it now and save a pocket full of cash...

TIA



if you dont want the pocket full of cash. this give it too me i find some ues for it
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3187. tkeith
Fallinstorms, could you tell me when we're gonna get that September storm. My wife wants to go to Negril for a vactaion in Sept. and if I knew when the Sept. storm was comin through, I could book it now and save a pocket full of cash...

TIA
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any one lool

Quoting Tazmanian:
look be low where i under line in the bold


Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are:


Niño 4 -0.6ºC

Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC

Niño 3 -1.1ºC

Niño1+2 -2.0ºC
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3185. Patrap
Stop Global Whining
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3184. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL! Ain't the prettiest picture I've ever seen! Thank goodness I'm still too young for one of those things.


They'll check that prostate at age 40+ and you're awake for that event.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Colin...as in Colonoscopy.


Lord, you have such a winning way with words!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



AH AH


Oops.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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