Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3281. xcool


/here you go .rob /
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


"NO POOF FOR YOU!"


lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting DestinJeff:


Glad you are enjoying the avatars ... just wish that switching them was a little more efficient and user-friendly. It is my way of bringing some form of constant levity to my posts.

I am actually shocked that in 20 years The Simpsons haven't had Jim Cantore on in some capacity, since he is a nationally known figure and easily spoof-able. Maybe Springfield will get a landfalling system sometime soon and he will do the remotes for TWC?


For sure!

Bart will hit on Steph....lucky dude.
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Current state of the blog........

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3276. xcool
btwntx08 ;)
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3275. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


I've already gotten hit and I don't want any more. When Drak posted to prepare for a possible Cat 1 Bonnie at landfall I got concerned. Don't need to go through that stress again.

In other related news local news here did well not to exaggerate Bonnie.


Good to hear.....that's the thing that annoyed me was Louisiana declaring a state of emergency and everyone going nuts over the oil spill when this was nothing but a rainstorm and no big threat...that's why I stressed so much how weak she would be.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE POSITIONS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MARCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE LOW MOVING
WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT
16Z...AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OUR FORECASTS AND FROM OUR
CONTINUITY WERE NEGLIGIBLE... INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IN THOSE REGIONS.


Day 7


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11210
3273. beell
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation


Ever notice how Hurricane101 almost always posts about other bloggers?

Not saying it's wrong or anything, just an observation.
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I have seen that too guys..Every morning he makes a proclamation that there's nothing for 2 weeks on the ECMWF. It's as if the ECMWF is the GOD of weather. When there's a threat he downplays it big time IMO.

Quoting Levi32:


Well, I'm sure he doesn't want to get hit and is rooting for a slow season, which is probably why.
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3270. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Really? Who posted the 12Z CMC? Go back and take a look.

Poof!


It's post #3007.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well, I'm sure he doesn't want to get hit and is rooting for a slow season, which is probably why.


I've already gotten hit and I don't want any more. When Drak posted to prepare for a possible Cat 1 Bonnie at landfall I got concerned. Don't need to go through that stress again.

In other related news local news here did well not to exaggerate Bonnie.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
3268. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


That's drizzle in S Fla imagine driving in a rain so hard it restricts visibility to below 300 feet.


Ridiculous lol I want to experience that sometime.....wow. Heaviest rain I've been through here was 4 inches in 24 hours, 10 inches in the course of 3 days which flooded the Anchor River right over Highway 1 (the same highway that leads to Key West :)) and cut Homer off from ground travel for days.

That kind of rainfall is unimaginable in this part of Alaska. They get it more often farther east but here....that was a historic storm. We had two of them that fall exactly a month apart in 2002.

EDIT: Well actually Highway 1 may start farther north 100 miles away but we are connected to it. I forgot all of the sudden.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
3266. xcool
lmao
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Quoting Levi32:


Well, I'm sure he doesn't want to get hit and is rooting for a slow season, which is probably why.


I can understand that, I wouldn't want anyone to get hit either
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Hey Reedzone, I must say you acted in a respectable way during Bonnie. As far as hrrikat,that person acted as a brash, arrogant kid with his comments. Whether he was right or wrong on his predictions, his manners stunk up the blog IMO!

Quoting reedzone:
Oh wait.. I forgot, everyone worshiped hurrikat and ignored me when I was proved wrong on Bonnies intensity.. I should change my screename :P
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Quoting Levi32:
This is very heavy rain by our standards:

We are soaking today big time.



That's drizzle in S Fla imagine driving in a rain so hard it restricts visibility to below 300 feet.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
3262. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation


Well, I'm sure he doesn't want to get hit and is rooting for a slow season, which is probably why.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting IKE:


Really? Who posted the 12Z CMC? Go back and take a look.

Poof!


poof for one observation? lol

wow you need to relax a bit, I know you are one of the most reliable people on this blog, it was just something I noticed is all
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting SQUAWK:


It is arrogant. Just look at his avatar. Reminds me of a song I heard once

img src="" alt="" />Link


ha ha ha very funny.... That avatar is an old picture of me.
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3259. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Latest 12Z ECMWF.


Here's the eastern ATL view....Link
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Quoting outofdablue:
Reed, this is from a typical lurker. You seem to be a bright young fellow...please stop using "I" so many times in your sentencing. It make you sound either whinney or arrogant. You used it 8 times in the above quote.


He cares way to much about what others think about him.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
3257. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation


Really? Who posted the 12Z CMC? Go back and take a look.

Poof!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3256. Levi32
This is very heavy rain by our standards:

We are soaking today big time.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting StormW:


Both last year and 2006 come to mind. Based on what I've been looking at, we should see changes beginning shortly after the week of August 9th. Zonal shear forecast seems to indicate a reduction in easterly shear.




I guess with all that shear and dry air the only real action is whatever brews up from the Carribean or around the Yucatan.

Thanks Storm!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL! Ain't the prettiest picture I've ever seen! Thank goodness I'm still too young for one of those things.


Yeah, much better than the old days when they just strapped a camera on a gerbil...

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3253. RMCF
Quoting tropicfreak:
Could anything develop off the cold front that is exiting the east coast?

Watch Levi's video in the member's blog
And every one quit fighting about who called what !!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Somehow I imagine you posting that with a final, forceful click of the mouse button ... like "TAKE THAT!"


Im not much of a Simpsons fan but those icons are priceless

A Simpsons show featuring Steph and Jim Cantore would be interesting.
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3249. xcool
ECMWF run on the idea that "Cape Verde"around August 5
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation


Ever think about him doing it because he wants to show GOOD news? Ike is optimistic and there is nothing wrong with that. If a major hurricane is bearing down on someone, Ike isn't going to post false info about it being weak or anything. Until the season surpasses 13 named storms, Ike is just as correct as anyone else on this blog.
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what do you know, Zep's back......cool
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Quoting caneswatch:


Me neither


Me niether too
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Quoting Levi32:


It should be watched for possible home-grown mischief, though our best chance for that may come with the 2nd front that will drop down in the same area this weekend.


Alright then, because here in the midatlantic we are still rain-needy.
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Lots and lots of thunderstorm activity here in TN
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Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
No news , is good news
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3240. xcool
ECMWF.cmc gfs ngp cv storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan could end up being just like TD2. It has a lot of turning in the mid-levels and once it emerges over the BOC, it might work its way down to the surface, just like TD2.


I agree, unless conditions are absolutely ripe for rapid intensification.
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3238. Levi32
Quoting tropicfreak:
Could anything develop off the cold front that is exiting the east coast?


It should be watched for possible home-grown mischief, though our best chance for that may come with the 2nd front that will drop down in the same area this weekend.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting IKE:
Latest 12Z ECMWF.



looks like Pacific activity...
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The system over the Yucatan could end up being just like TD2. It has a lot of turning in the mid-levels and once it emerges over the BOC, it might work its way down to the surface, just like TD2.
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3235. unf97
Good afternoon everyone!

Looks like its time for Dr. Carver to update the blog. Bonnie dying is old news LOL..
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?


From what I've been reading, from folks far more knowledgeable and experience then I, it has a VERY hard road to travel to become anything. There is a ULL to it's north that will greatly hinder any development. It can't be ruled out entirely, but very unlikely.
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3233. IKE
Latest 12Z ECMWF.
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Could anything develop off the cold front that is exiting the east coast?
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3231. Levi32
Quoting sailingallover:

Although the origin of what is over the Yucatan is from the energy that was left behind from the wave that became Bonnie..
There was no wave that ran into the back of Bonnie. It was an induced trough from the convection that sat over us for a 3 days as the trades brought more warm air in behind over the outflow. Back when that was all happening and few people saw the trough and convection and were talking about it developing I posted the ASCATs and Surface analysis for it etc.
The last post of the series was "lets see how it does on it's own" and the other stuff is in front of that..day after is got an AOI with less that 1% chance


Um no, there was a weak tropical wave behind Bonnie that was trackable behind her across the Atlantic. It was not a fracture they were always separate. I've been tracking it forever now.

July 20th....





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.