Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Mudslide in Shuanghe,Sichuan,China
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3729. beell
.
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Quoting unf97:


Yeah, looking at satellite imagery, very impressive convective tops across South Carolina. Yeah, lots of severe weather today across that state.


It was pretty bad in the low country too... at one point, all the storm cells merged into one and it looked like an upside down letter "T" along 526 and up 26 toward Summerville. Visibility dropped to around 100 feet standing still due to the rain. Constant lightning and about a 30 minute period where the thunder never stopped, it just subsided to a low rumble and then would crack again.
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Quoting StormW:


If we get an "established" upper level anticyclone over it and it maintains, and this gets out over the water, yes.


ok, have any models suggested something develop around there?
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3725. xcool
new blog
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NEW BLOG...about a book. LOL.
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3723. xcool
Orcasystems
lmao
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NEW BLOG
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Quoting xcool:
Humidity: 78%
Wind Speed: ESE 21 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb


GASP... your a AOI :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3718. xcool
Humidity: 78%
Wind Speed: ESE 21 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
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my town, brusly, LA got 4 inches.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Wouldnt that be a incredibly strong low pressure system?
Nope. If 850mb were at the surface 900mb would be a very strong high pressure area. Just like the surface being at 1013mb and having a high pressure area of 1063mb.
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Quoting StormW:


If we get an "established" upper level anticyclone over it and it maintains, and this gets out over the water, yes.


StormW, really enjoyed the synopsis today. Very insightful -got a ton of insight out of it for this season.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
Yucatan and wave near 35 W need to be watched.
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3711. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


My thoughts exactly. Hence my sarcasm.


Aw, c'mon, KoritheMan, give it a little cred!
: - )
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3710. xcool


WOW
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Evening Senior Chief Caster!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3708. bakers
wow... not even one cyclone occuring anywhere in the entire world. agw alarmists might be a little down at the moment.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
1013.25 mb is standard
if 850 was very near the surface .. well a 900mb hurricane would be an incredibly strong high pressure system ...


Wouldnt that be a incredibly strong low pressure system?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting KoritheMan:


Somehow I doubt Bonnie produced anywhere near 7 inches of rain. 3 if we're lucky. More likely 1 to 2, and only in isolated areas.



Kori, i was too tired last night to post anymore, but below is an excerpt from the local news station. One entire neighborhood flooded. it was really weird because only a 1/4 mile area got the 7 inches. my neighborhood is two or 3 redlights from the area that flooded and we are fine. could be drainage issues too. but it really was 7 inches. the sugarcane looks like it took a good beating too, but only some of the crops.


PORT ALLEN, LA (WAFB) - The storm once named Bonnie quickly weakened as it made its way through south Louisiana, but it did leave a mark in West Baton Rouge Parish by flooding homes and roadways.

The Lynndale Subdivision off LA 1 in Port Allen received up to 7 inches of rain, leaving homeowners to clean up Bonnie's mess.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1013.25 mb is standard
if 850 was very near the surface .. well a 900mb hurricane would be an incredibly strong high pressure system ...
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Quoting StormW:


Oh...really?


Hi Storm,

what are your thoughts on this area by the Yucatan? Should this be watched?
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Oh - ha - missed the sarcasm aspect. ;)

I see Miami has an update - guessing that will answer my question. Thx -
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
3699. xcool


1009MB NOW

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Quoting xcool:
earthlydragonfly YES 850 mb 5,000 feet


Wow that is still pretty high.. I thought 850 was even closer to the surface.. So the surface would be at 1000mb?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
I thought so but reading quickly so maybe AOI is too strong of term --> referring to post 3647 :)


My thoughts exactly. Hence my sarcasm.
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3695. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... actually the wife has corn in her garden... been in a while.

But it's true that I are no farm guy.


I really don't need to know what you and the wife are doing in the garden...

Now what the weather is up to is another story...
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3694. xcool
NEXT 90L
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3692. xcool
YES
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I thought so but reading quickly so maybe AOI is too strong of term --> referring to post 3647 :)
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
3690. Patrap

When is the GOES-13 Sat Eclipse Over Buck..?




Top her off with the LOX and lets roll
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Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Anyone have the coords on the AOI? :)


There's an AOI?
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Anyone have the coords on the AOI? :)
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
By Golly, it feels flat out suspicious out there! Ok, I'm gonna go read what ya'll have been saying now. lol
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Um .... where, exactly .. does it say to plant corn at the start of August 0.o
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening!

Good Evening.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
Quoting FLdewey:


It says it's time to plant corn. ;-)

Obviously you're no farmer.
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3682. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:


It says it's time to plant corn. ;-)


LOL...

Although not much help.
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3681. xcool
July 2010
24th-27th. Scattered showers, then clearing. Showery Texas east.
28th-31st. Hot. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.


August 2010
1st-3rd. Gusty winds, showery New Mexico, Texas, parts of Oklahoma.
4th-7th. Mostly fair, hot.
8th-11th. Rain Texas. Gusty winds Southern Plains.
12th-15th. Fair, turning unsettled.
16th-19th. Pleasant.
20th-23rd. Fair, then showers Southern Rockies east.
24th-27th. Fair weather gives way to unsettled conditions over Southern Rockies. Hurricane threat along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Thunderstorms move through Texas east.


September 2010
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Mixed bag for holiday: Windy through New Mexico. Scattered showers from Texas east, then fair.
8th-11th. Severe thunderstorms extend from Southern Rockies through Southern Plains, tornadoes possible.
12th-15th. Clearing, pleasant.
16th-19th. Turning unsettled, showers over Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, then fair.
20th-23rd. Fair weather, then scattered showers, thunderstorms Southern Rockies.


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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.