Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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alright it was nice chatting :) I may be around may not ... I poke my nose in when the trolls and know it alls are away. ( rare now days =( )

good night :) as far as the TC center fix goes .. we'll call it a draw... as in you need to draw your estimates closer to mine in the future ;) haha
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1910. TxKeef
wow, She zoomed right along, she's already near the coast!
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Quoting canehater1:
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

NHC covers all their bases...


To my uneducated (tropically) eyes, it seemed Bonnie might be getting fired up a bit earlier. Now it seems she's getting sheared???
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Best $433.00 I ever spent. Bought ours after Rita and my husband questioned it but after Ike was glad I did it!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Wow, good for you! Seriously!

I am still thankful that the neighbors let us "share" their generator after about 4 days of no power.

Its on my list!

It's a lifesaver for sure. Loud though ... couldnt afford the whisper ones but when the power is out and Im watching tv in the AC popping pocorn and having a light on ... I dont even notice
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Had my giggles .. deleted to avoid confusion lol
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Im a weather weenie .. I saved up and bought a 5500 watt 7000 peak generator as a junior in highschool ... lol didnt buy a car til I graduated ... but by God that sucker came in handy ... parents called me crazy ... theyve needed to borrow it since ;)


Wow, good for you! Seriously!

I am still thankful that the neighbors let us "share" their generator after about 4 days of no power.

Its on my list!
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Quoting atmosweather:


Exactly my problem too LOL! I was looking at SSD lat/long images that were an hour old and forgot to adjust.

I was looking at SSD for certain locks due to it being better at seeing low clouds in my experience , then using NASA to compare the Convective comples and use the movement to determine location in a fresher image (little bit of trigonometric calculus) of course the darn HH didnt get there til nearly an hour later -.- ....
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THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

NHC covers all their bases...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:
Im a weather weenie .. I saved up and bought a 5500 watt 7000 peak generator as a junior in highschool ... lol didnt buy a car til I graduated ... but by God that sucker came in handy ... parents called me crazy ... theyve needed to borrow it since ;)


Good idea...a generator would have come in handy during the 18 days without power after Charley.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep was going to buy one 2 weeks ago had house and car ac's go out. UGH!


Isn't that lovely and typical? lol.

Yep, we had planned on getting one this season but I am starting my third semester of nursing school, then one of the vehicles went down. So, yeah always something.

I was mainly concerned with no power here with my daughter and then my fiance working in Pascagoula. He said no one at his job or at the plant was even discussing the storm!
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Im a weather weenie .. I saved up and bought a 5500 watt 7000 peak generator as a junior in highschool ... lol didnt buy a car til I graduated ... but by God that sucker came in handy ... parents called me crazy ... theyve needed to borrow it since ;)
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Quoting atmosweather:


Well now the NWS have started issuing inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings county-by-county so that should make a lot of difference.


That's good! I'm glad they're doing it. My county is technically not on the coast so we wouldn't get the same warnings as our neighbors did. Ike flooded my county over I-10.
Glad to hear things changing. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting SouthALWX:
lol I think I was closer 30 minutes ago ... ;) she moved west on me! lol


Exactly my problem too LOL! I was looking at SSD lat/long images that were an hour old and forgot to adjust.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
lol I think I was closer 30 minutes ago ... ;) she moved west on me! lol
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Quoting SouthALWX:

all you need is a herd of hamsters, a bunch of spinny wheels, wire, magnets, and a capacitor and you can power anything! ( in a pinch, children in large drums will do the trick)


Haha!
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Not everyone can always afford a generator :) Seems like when you can't afford anything, them a storm hits (or other things).


Yep was going to buy one 2 weeks ago had house and car ac's go out. UGH!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Rita as well. She killed one man with a tree through his house. That was in Angelina County. Over a hundred miles inland. Obviously you can't evacuate everyone. But I'd like to see some public information given to these inland Counties. They can be beasts far from the shore!


Well now the NWS have started issuing inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings county-by-county so that should make a lot of difference.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Not everyone can always afford a generator :) Seems like when you can't afford anything, them a storm hits (or other things).

all you need is a herd of hamsters, a bunch of spinny wheels, wire, magnets, and a capacitor and you can power anything! ( in a pinch, children in large drums will do the trick)
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Quoting SouthALWX:

They dont get waves either ^_^


Right. :P
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Quoting atmosweather:


That's the biggest issue that the general public overlooks concerning hurricanes. A storm can still take lives and property over a hundred miles inland...personal example was Charley...Orlando was 130 miles inland from Charley's landfall location, ended up with 85 mph sustained winds and 100+ mph wind gusts for 2 crazy hours.


Rita as well. She killed one man with a tree through his house. That was in Angelina County. Over a hundred miles inland. Obviously you can't evacuate everyone. But I'd like to see some public information given to these inland Counties. They can be beasts far from the shore!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting SouthALWX:

Four words Gen Er Ray Tur


Yeah. My family is talking about getting one.
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vortex message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 240901
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 24/08:45:20Z
B. 26 deg 54 min N
085 deg 24 min W

C. 925 mb 796 m
D. 21 kt
E. 327 deg 69 nm
F. 085 deg 26 kt
G. 337 deg 34 nm
H. EXTRAP 1012 mb
I. 22 C / 761 m
J. 23 C / 763 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0703A BONNIE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 26 KT NW QUAD 08:34:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

We were both a little off SouthALWX but you were probably closer =P
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting SouthALWX:

Four words Gen Er Ray Tur


Not everyone can always afford a generator :) Seems like when you can't afford anything, them a storm hits (or other things).
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1886. xcool



DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I was surprised by the noticeable lack of media coverage in the aftermath, as well.

I too love to track these storms, and even love to experience them. In fact, were it not for the guarantee of prolonged power outages, I wouldn't mind experiencing another Category 2 or 3 in the next five years. Call me crazy, but this stuff is what I live for. :P

I just hate losing power. Hate it. >_<

I'm actually strongly considering chasing hurricanes whenever I finally get a car.


I think the main thing is the power loss, not to mention major damage, otherwise I love a nice wind storm. Nice when it cools things down too. Didn't seem like Gustav cooled anything down!

Couldn't really see the media coverage without power but I had heard through family and friends and checking on it once power/cable was restored. Makes you wonder?!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct. Tornadoes, flooding, high winds. You name it. The only thing inland areas don't get is storm surge.

They dont get waves either ^_^
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The convection is really dying out as expected without any upper level support.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting homelesswanderer:


A lot were surprised. And another perfect example of you don't need to be on the coast to be in danger. The danger may be different but it's still real.


Correct. Tornadoes, flooding, high winds. You name it. The only thing inland areas don't get is storm surge.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I was surprised by the noticeable lack of media coverage in the aftermath, as well.

I too love to track these storms, and even love to experience them. In fact, were it not for the guarantee of prolonged power outages, I wouldn't mind experiencing another Category 2 or 3 in the next five years. Call me crazy, but this stuff is what I live for. :P

I just hate losing power. Hate it. >_<

I'm actually strongly considering chasing hurricanes whenever I finally get a car.

Four words Gen Er Ray Tur
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


So true and its amazing how folks "wishcast" a storm to themselves. Have they gone through an aftermath?

I remember leaving Baytown for Rita (everyone was afraid after Katrina and my family's stories here). Seems like we got more while in Baton Rouge than Baytown got while I was gone. Thankfully I had left earlier than the famous evacuation!

My best friend went through Camille as a young child. Can you imagine?

Didn't you go through Rita?


Well she sent a tree through my house but I was in that evac. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1879. xcool
[
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmosweather:


That's the biggest issue that the general public overlooks concerning hurricanes. A storm can still take lives and property over a hundred miles inland...personal example was Charley...Orlando was 130 miles inland from Charley's landfall location, ended up with 85 mph sustained winds and 100+ mph wind gusts for 2 crazy hours.


People just don't get it, I guess, until they experience it. I had planned on driving to Texas on Sunday or Monday, but had to cancel. I wasn't about to, not knowing what would happen with Bonnie.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I love to watch storms and how they form, etc and learn lots on here. I do NOT want another big one though.

Funny how Gustav did so much damage and I had heard there was hardly any media coverage because the levees did not flood in NOLA. Sensationalism. Just a shame so many suffered here and it was like no one knew.

When I worked on the recovery, it was amazing how much damage there was, mainly trees, branches, etc,. even up to St. Francisville. Just too many old oaks here, I guess!


Yeah, I was surprised by the noticeable lack of media coverage in the aftermath, as well.

I too love to track these storms, and even love to experience them. In fact, were it not for the guarantee of prolonged power outages, I wouldn't mind experiencing another Category 2 or 3 in the next five years. Call me crazy, but this stuff is what I live for. :P

I just hate losing power. Hate it. >_<

I'm actually strongly considering chasing hurricanes whenever I finally get a car.
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Appears like a very very broad and ill-defined center with a large area of pressures between 1013mb and 1012.5mb.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting homelesswanderer:


A lot were surprised. And another perfect example of you don't need to be on the coast to be in danger. The danger may be different but it's still real.


That's the biggest issue that the general public overlooks concerning hurricanes. A storm can still take lives and property over a hundred miles inland...personal example was Charley...Orlando was 130 miles inland from Charley's landfall location, ended up with 85 mph sustained winds and 100+ mph wind gusts for 2 crazy hours.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting homelesswanderer:


A lot were surprised. And another perfect example of you don't need to be on the coast to be in danger. The danger may be different but it's still real.


So true and its amazing how folks "wishcast" a storm to themselves. Have they gone through an aftermath?

I remember leaving Baytown for Rita (everyone was afraid after Katrina and my family's stories here). Seems like we got more while in Baton Rouge than Baytown got while I was gone. Thankfully I had left earlier than the famous evacuation!

My best friend went through Camille as a young child. Can you imagine?

Didn't you go through Rita?
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Quoting atmosweather:
Location: 27.0°N 85.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

That's a pretty good call if RECON confirms that center SouthALWX :)


The top part is on 27N the bottom on 26N. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is precisely why I'm glad (well, besides the oil spill, of course, but that should go without saying) that we aren't going to receive anything significant from Bonnie, even if it happens to move directly over us. I'm not at all enthusiastic in losing power, especially this time around. It's hotter now than it was prior to and subsequent to Gustav. Gustav was hard enough to bear without electricity -- I imagine if Bonnie were to knock it out, it would be 2 to 3x worse. Not fun.

Also, Gustav should serve as a reminder that a hurricane doesn't need to be a major one in order to cause significant damage. Baton Rouge saw its most significant natural disaster since 1965's Hurricane Betsy. And no one there expected that, myself included.


A lot were surprised. And another perfect example of you don't need to be on the coast to be in danger. The danger may be different but it's still real.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting atmosweather:
Location: 27.0°N 85.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

That's a pretty good call if RECON confirms that center SouthALWX :)

we shall see :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


This is precisely why I'm glad (well, besides the oil spill, of course, but that should go without saying) that we aren't going to receive anything significant from Bonnie, even if it happens to move directly over us. I'm not at all enthusiastic in losing power, especially this time around. It's hotter now than it was prior to and subsequent to Gustav. Gustav was hard enough to bear without electricity -- I imagine if Bonnie were to knock it out, it would be 2 to 3x worse. Not fun.

Also, Gustav should serve as a reminder that a hurricane doesn't need to be a major one in order to cause significant damage. Baton Rouge saw its most significant natural disaster since 1965's Hurricane Betsy. And no one there expected that, myself included.


I love to watch storms and how they form, etc and learn lots on here. I do NOT want another big one though.

Funny how Gustav did so much damage and I had heard there was hardly any media coverage because the levees did not flood in NOLA. Sensationalism. Just a shame so many suffered here and it was like no one knew.

When I worked on the recovery, it was amazing how much damage there was, mainly trees, branches, etc,. even up to St. Francisville. Just too many old oaks here, I guess!
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Location: 27.0°N 85.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

That's a pretty good call if RECON confirms that center SouthALWX :)
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Winds and pressure remain very unimpressive...almost at the center now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Yep know where that is. Was born here but moved away as a child and always had family here.

Oh gosh, the wind was horrible. We lose power out in Central for like 10-12 days. Hot as heck!

I had just moved here to start back to college, so I took a job on the recovery.


This is precisely why I'm glad (well, besides the oil spill, of course, but that should go without saying) that we aren't going to receive anything significant from Bonnie, even if it happens to move directly over us. I'm not at all enthusiastic in losing power, especially this time around. It's hotter now than it was prior to and subsequent to Gustav. Gustav was hard enough to bear without electricity -- I imagine if Bonnie were to knock it out, it would be 2 to 3x worse. Not fun.

Also, Gustav should serve as a reminder that a hurricane doesn't need to be a major one in order to cause significant damage. Baton Rouge saw its most significant natural disaster since 1965's Hurricane Betsy. And no one there expected that, myself included.
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Recon nearing the approximate center.
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1864. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Knots to mph converter.
Thanks- I saved that
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I was in Prairieville for Gustav. You probably know where that is. If not, look it up on Wikipedia.

You talk about strong wind? Damn. I won't soon forget that day. We had sustained winds of 70-80 mph with gusts upwards of 100 to 110 mph during the height of the storm. Fortunately, I only lost power for five days, a far cry from Baton Rouge (which I was very near).


Yep know where that is. Was born here but moved away as a child and always had family here.

Oh gosh, the wind was horrible. We lose power out in Central for like 10-12 days. Hot as heck!

I had just moved here to start back to college, so I took a job on the recovery.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


When we saw another TS supposed to come ashore overnight we were a little jumpy thinking Humberto part 2. I found WU the very next day and have tracked every blob since. Yeah Gustav was awful. He surprised some too.


I've been a lurker since 2005 in Texas,

Yep, I came in from work, still in Baytown, and Humberto was there but east of me. I was like, "hey I didn't see this on WU this morning!" Scary.

I moved to Baton Rouge less than a month before Gustav and enough time to leave for Ike! Did still have family there so it was nerve-racking.
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Quoting scott39:
Excuse my ignorance in what I thought 35kts meant. I thought that meant TD, so I thought I was guessing, but now I know. Thanks


Knots to mph converter (scroll down).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.