Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Funny they have yet to deactivate TD2 (al022010).
Lol, they never renumbered Bonnie. Now they just deactivated it.

invest_DEACTIVATE_al032010.ren
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Quoting Walshy:
The storm that is about to hit NYC was showing rotation on radar with winds up to 80mph. Now, its down to 50ish. Long track thunderstorm here, will pack a punch none the less.

You never no if those winds will reach the surface though. Good shear across the region.



there is tornado warning for Manhattan/NYC
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I for one was very excited to experience my first tropical storm ever, or depresion whatever... really we just got rain all day but Spring Hill is close enough I was able to call family in Washington State and say we were in our first storm. Very glad it wasnt too exciting and glad no major damage or deaths etc. I really enjoyed my Bonnie experience. Thank you all for making the blog watching so much fun!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982010.ren


There it goes...
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting Hurricanes101:
694. eye 12:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2010

not with the percentage symbol behind it

guess you are a troll too, I am done debating this lol


Ya he is, quite the veteran actually lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982010.ren


Funny they have yet to deactivate TD2 (al022010).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TropicalDepression Bonnie was^heading for a PortArthur,Texas landfall in ~55hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 25.4N80.3W, 25.8N81.1W, 26.2N81.9W-26.4N82.5W, 26.4N82.5W-29.7N94.1W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD.Bonnie had a heading of 290.4degrees (2.1degrees west of WestNorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 40miles(~64kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~13mph(~21km/h),
and was 744miles(~852kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
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Quoting Levi32:


That would be an apt description of it.

One of the best examples was Hurricane Wilma at near-peak intensity, when the eyewall replacement cycle was just beginning. The inner eye ran circles within the developing outer eyewall, and those motions along a mean path are called trochoidal oscillations. Basically, a curve caused by a circle rolling in a straight line.



Great post, very interesting...Thanks!
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Quoting stormy72:
I'm watching that wave over Puerto Rico too, it seems to be a lot healthier looking than Bonnie was!

I hope someone's paying attention to that one. I wouldn't be surprised if were a depression tomorrow by the way it's looking now!


Ahem!
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The storm that is about to hit NYC was showing rotation on radar with winds up to 80mph. Now, its down to 50ish. Long track thunderstorm here, will pack a punch none the less.

You never no if those winds will reach the surface though. Good shear across the region.


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Quoting homelesswanderer:


It looks to me like the ULL is pulling some convection from 98l. Wonder if that will revitalize Bonnie?


Not really. Convection in the southern gulf is slowly trying to extend eastward away from 98L because the upper low to the north is enhancing divergence in that area as it backs west, and will tend to support convection to its southeast over the central and SW gulf. The whole thing has little to do with Bonnie, and the convection will never build east into Bonnie's territory.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
694. eye 12:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2010

not with the percentage symbol behind it

guess you are a troll too, I am done debating this lol
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Does this bear watching or are conditions unfavorable?



Hey Tex. It's upper level now. But it still needs to be watched.
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Quoting eye:
.05 is 5% .50 is 50%.....
No, .50 is to the right of the decimal.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Im sure the HH are analyzing the towering monster....but what's happening to the west....say about 87 west? Anybody know what that means?


It looks to me like the ULL is pulling some convection from 98l. Wonder if that will revitalize Bonnie?
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invest_DEACTIVATE_al982010.ren
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694. eye
.05 is 5% .50 is 50%.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm watching that wave over Puerto Rico too, it seems to be a lot healthier looking than Bonnie was!

I hope someone's paying attention to that one. I wouldn't be surprised if were a depression tomorrow by the way it's looking now!
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Does this bear watching or are conditions unfavorable?

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
687. eye 12:27 AM GMT on July 24, 2010

that says .5% or if you need it written out POINT FIVE PERCENT
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690. xcool


nice circulation spin
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Fortunately it appears that Bonnie will be one of those many forgetable storms that comes and goes with no effect of any sort
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That vortex is the profile of a pretty sick tropical cyclone isn't it Levi.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
687. eye
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'll give my odds for Bonnie before next landfall:

Degenerates to a wave--35%
Remains a tropical depreession--35%
Becomes a tropical storm again 29.5%
Becomes a hurricane-------0.5 %


Holy cow, 50% chance of being a hurricane????? What sort of casting would you call that?
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According to the Vortex message, Bonnie should stay as a tropical depression with winds of 35mph and a pressure of 1010mb. The circulation remains closed.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Im sure the HH are analyzing the towering monster....but what's happening to the west....say about 87 west? Anybody know what that means?


This guy's an idiot.....how about now?



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Quoting Owen1027:
From an unbiased, longtime observer, it is unfortunate that so many are so quick to judge and ridicule others opinions. Yes, some bloggers, including hurrikat, are not as diplomatic and as polished as others. Some, including hurrikat, are very passionate about their opinion and perspective. While we sometimes view others opinion, including hurrikat's, as outlandish and far-fetched...it is refresshing to see someone that has the courage to express an opinion that may not be the "popular" one. HK has been wrong as much as he has been right, but speaking for the silent majority, there are many who look forward to his perspective. At this point, he, like many others on this blog, has been right enough times to warrant a little respect. I would encourage anyone who is not interested in what he, or anyone else for that matter, has to say to simply put them on ignore. Additionally, I would remind everyone that this is a blog, nothing more, nothing less.


What you say is true, however, you obviously don't know who the main trolls are on this blog. He's a troll, and his opinion is always the opposite of the consensus, on purpose, in order to rouse us into contention with him.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

First time I've ever seen a tornado in NYC.

It has happened a few years back as well:

Link
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie has come back from near death.



Where?
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Quoting Levi32:
000
URNT12 KNHC 240020
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 24/00:02:40Z
B. 26 deg 14 min N
082 deg 39 min W
C. 925 mb 779 m
D. 31 kt
E. 297 deg 21 nm
F. 065 deg 37 kt
G. 313 deg 126 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 23 C / 763 m
J. 24 C / 755 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0603A BONNIE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 37 KT NW QUAD 23:22:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


still a depression for now
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Quoting Walshy:
Tornado Warning for New York City


Oh no!
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Quoting Walshy:
Tornado Warning for New York City


Oh boy.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Jason what's this obsession with Africa do you vacation there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
URNT12 KNHC 240020
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 24/00:02:40Z
B. 26 deg 14 min N
082 deg 39 min W
C. 925 mb 779 m
D. 31 kt
E. 297 deg 21 nm
F. 065 deg 37 kt
G. 313 deg 126 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 23 C / 763 m
J. 24 C / 755 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0603A BONNIE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 37 KT NW QUAD 23:22:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
From an unbiased, longtime observer, it is unfortunate that so many are so quick to judge and ridicule others opinions. Yes, some bloggers, including hurrikat, are not as diplomatic and as polished as others. Some, including hurrikat, are very passionate about their opinion and perspective. While we sometimes view others opinion, including hurrikat's, as outlandish and far-fetched...it is refresshing to see someone that has the courage to express an opinion that may not be the "popular" one. HK has been wrong as much as he has been right, but speaking for the silent majority, there are many who look forward to his perspective. At this point, he, like many others on this blog, has been right enough times to warrant a little respect. I would encourage anyone who is not interested in what he, or anyone else for that matter, has to say to simply put them on ignore. Additionally, I would remind everyone that this is a blog, nothing more, nothing less.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


That would be an apt description of it.

One of the best examples was Hurricane Wilma at near-peak intensity, when the eyewall replacement cycle was just beginning. The inner eye ran circles around the developing outer eyewall, and those motions along a mean path are called trochoidal oscillations.

Oh, very interesting. Thanks.
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Quoting MechEngMet:
"New York City??!! Get a rope..."

(Cue western accent)


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If there actually is a tornado on the ground, this could get bad.

TORNADO WARNING
NJC003-013-017-031-NYC005-047-061-081-240045-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0006.100724T0012Z-100724T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

* AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PATERSON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PARAMUS...BLOOMFIELD...PASSAIC...ORADELL...HACKENSACK...
RUTHERFORD...BERGENFIELD...TETERBORO...LYNDHURST...ENGLEWOOD...
SECAUCUS...RIDGEFIELD...FORT LEE...RIVERDALE...UNION CITY...
MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS...HOBOKEN...UPPER WEST SIDE...HARLEM...CENTRAL
PARK...MIDTOWN MANHATTAN...MOTT HAVEN...SOHO...EAST VILLAGE...EAST
TREMONT...BATTERY PARK...LOWER EAST SIDE...LONG ISLAND CITY...
BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...WHITESTONE...TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE...RFK BRIDGE...
THROGS NECK BRIDGE...LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...JACKSON HEIGHTS...
FLUSHING...CROWN HEIGHTS...CO-OP CITY AND ASTORIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7430 4090 7428 4092 7429 4094 7428
4097 7429 4107 7420 4087 7378 4086 7380
4084 7380 4082 7378 4080 7378 4065 7393
4090 7433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 306DEG 25KT 4092 7417

$$

DSW

First time I've ever seen a tornado in NYC.
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Im sure the HH are analyzing the towering monster....but what's happening to the west....say about 87 west? Anybody know what that means?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
OK for CHARGING batteries on laptops, cell phones etc but not recommended to attempt to operate electronics. I've got one and when I am on a run I will turn off my computer or phone and charge them up but when I turn them on I make sure they are disconnected.
I've actually got a 2500 watt inverter. Run a freezer, power tools, small window unit AC, whatever...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Seems to be a fancy phrase for wobbles along the path.


That would be an apt description of it.

One of the best examples was Hurricane Wilma at near-peak intensity, when the eyewall replacement cycle was just beginning. The inner eye ran circles within the developing outer eyewall, and those motions along a mean path are called trochoidal oscillations. Basically, a curve caused by a circle rolling in a straight line.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
666. xcool


nice .update
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
"New York City??!! Get a rope..."

(Cue western accent)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Seems to be a fancy phrase for wobbles along the path.

Check this out!

Link
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Oh well see you'll later later Gator's and yes I care about PR wave. Lastly closing out to night I some day hope when I grow up to be able to post in capitals but my mommy won't let me yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there actually is a tornado on the ground, this could get bad.

TORNADO WARNING
NJC003-013-017-031-NYC005-047-061-081-240045-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0006.100724T0012Z-100724T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

* AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PATERSON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PARAMUS...BLOOMFIELD...PASSAIC...ORADELL...HACKENSACK...
RUTHERFORD...BERGENFIELD...TETERBORO...LYNDHURST...ENGLEWOOD...
SECAUCUS...RIDGEFIELD...FORT LEE...RIVERDALE...UNION CITY...
MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS...HOBOKEN...UPPER WEST SIDE...HARLEM...CENTRAL
PARK...MIDTOWN MANHATTAN...MOTT HAVEN...SOHO...EAST VILLAGE...EAST
TREMONT...BATTERY PARK...LOWER EAST SIDE...LONG ISLAND CITY...
BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...WHITESTONE...TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE...RFK BRIDGE...
THROGS NECK BRIDGE...LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...JACKSON HEIGHTS...
FLUSHING...CROWN HEIGHTS...CO-OP CITY AND ASTORIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7430 4090 7428 4092 7429 4094 7428
4097 7429 4107 7420 4087 7378 4086 7380
4084 7380 4082 7378 4080 7378 4065 7393
4090 7433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 306DEG 25KT 4092 7417

$$

DSW
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.