Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Still no west winds and just a couple miles from the COC.

000
URNT15 KNHC 240305
AF305 0603A BONNIE HDOB 34 20100724
025530 2638N 08408W 9255 00788 0125 +218 +217 055023 024 028 000 00
025600 2636N 08407W 9246 00798 0124 +220 +216 054023 023 028 000 00
025630 2635N 08406W 9247 00797 0124 +216 //// 050023 024 028 000 01
025700 2633N 08405W 9246 00797 0123 +220 +214 050022 022 027 002 03
025730 2632N 08404W 9249 00794 0123 +218 +216 049021 021 026 000 00
025800 2631N 08403W 9248 00794 0123 +215 //// 049021 022 025 000 01
025830 2630N 08402W 9250 00791 0122 +216 //// 047020 021 025 000 01
025900 2628N 08401W 9249 00791 0120 +220 +218 050019 020 026 000 00
025930 2627N 08400W 9249 00790 0117 +220 +218 050018 019 025 000 00
030000 2626N 08358W 9249 00790 0118 +220 +219 051017 017 025 000 00
030030 2625N 08357W 9251 00788 0117 +221 +220 051015 015 024 000 00
030100 2624N 08356W 9249 00790 0118 +222 +220 045016 017 026 000 00
030130 2622N 08355W 9250 00788 0117 +225 +219 041016 016 026 000 00
030200 2621N 08354W 9250 00788 0116 +226 +218 038013 013 026 000 00
030230 2620N 08352W 9250 00788 0115 +225 +219 032012 012 024 000 03
030300 2619N 08351W 9248 00790 0114 +225 +218 030011 011 026 000 00
030330 2618N 08350W 9249 00787 0113 +225 +218 024009 010 025 000 00
030400 2617N 08348W 9251 00785 0112 +225 +218 047007 008 025 000 00
030430 2617N 08347W 9252 00784 0111 +227 +217 070005 005 023 001 03
030500 2615N 08346W 9246 00790 0113 +225 +222 056005 005 023 001 00
$$
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ummm...yeah 3 hours ago. In the second pass they didn't find any west winds whatsoever.




You guys have made your point... let them make another pass already ok.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1159. Levi32
Quoting wfyweather:


Yeah... but thats only one pass.... they need to do another couple first to know its opened back up..


Solid easterly winds for a stretch of 100 miles south of the center....it's open. It opened between the two passes as it was barely closed on the first one with 5-knot westerlies 5-10 miles south of the center. It was on the edge and went over on the 2nd pass. It's open.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
1158. centex
Quoting Levi32:


I think they are confused.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.



It's over....doesn't matter if there is a low pressure center that's not what defines a tropical cyclone. Disturbances can have low centers and not be named. You have to have a closed center with winds all the way around. This is an open wave. Even if you could somehow justify it still being a depression, it won't be anymore within 6 hours. They should just stop with the advisories and send the plane home so they're not wasting time and money lol. Those poor pilots.
You should stop, only makes you look like crap. This crap is why some like me call you out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

Their writing is improving.
This line has cadence. :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1156. Levi32
Quoting Ossqss:
Clickable o lengthen



Interesting model to watch :)





Not impossible, although it is the WRF. The wave near Hispaniola is a sneaky little devil. It should be watched as it comes westward.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Quoting Patrap:


Uh Oh..

"Crazy Ivan"


Yeah, we better not bury the lil darlin' til we know shes dead for sure,lol
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 984
Quoting wfyweather:


No.... winds from even the Southwest indicate this thing is SLIGHTLY closed and still a depression... they are going to continue advisories on it AS LONG AS THEY SHOULD.
Ummm...yeah 3 hours ago. In the second pass they didn't find any west winds whatsoever.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Levi32:


On the first pass yes but on the 2nd pass? No?



Yeah... but thats only one pass.... they need to do another couple first to know its opened back up..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


92L should get reclassified as a TC in the post-season analysis. That was unreal.
I agree 100%. I saved this image of 92L, a couple hours later ASCAT found a closed surface circulation (Levi remembers the ASCAT pass, I think he saved it). And yet, the NHC did not classify the system.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1151. Patrap

.."Right there,..Big Bada Spin"..

Oh,I c now...!

TYVM

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
1150. srada
Quoting Patrap:


Uh Oh..

"Crazy Ivan"


I saw someone mention this on the blog earlier today..that area is known for storms exiting out in the atlantic and curving back to hit the US again..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. Levi32
Quoting wfyweather:


No.... winds from even the Southwest indicate this thing is SLIGHTLY closed and still a depression... they are going to continue advisories on it AS LONG AS THEY SHOULD.


On the first pass yes but on the 2nd pass? No?

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
1148. Ossqss
Clickable to lengthen



Interesting model to watch :)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1147. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
NHC has been well over most of the dynamical solutions for about the last day for this time period and for the GoM part of Bonnie's track...



Odd, since it's usually the model consensus that will pull them away from a certain forecast. I don't see the reason why their forecast is still for intensification.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
1146. will45
Quoting Chicklit:
By the way, check out Cape Hatteras.

EATLoop


yes a lot of spin in thatone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bizzare....

WTNT43 KNHC 240235
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1144. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:
By the way, check out Cape Hatteras.

EATLoop
What if Bonnie's remnants got caught up in that loop?


Yea, My weather station is reading SW at about 10. There is an anticyclone overtop though. Situational development anyone?

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
nice spin 20n 70w. any thoughts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1142. xcool
poof poof she goo byeee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I think they are confused.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.



It's over....doesn't matter if there is a low pressure center that's not what defines a tropical cyclone. Disturbances can have low centers and not be named. You have to have a closed center with winds all the way around. This is an open wave. Even if you could somehow justify it still being a depression, it won't be anymore within 6 hours. They should just stop with the advisories and send the plane home so they're not wasting time and money lol. Those poor pilots.


No.... winds from even the Southwest indicate this thing is SLIGHTLY closed and still a depression... they are going to continue advisories on it AS LONG AS THEY SHOULD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exactly my point. If Bonnie is a tropical depression, 92L should have been a tropical storm.


92L should get reclassified as a TC in the post-season analysis. That was unreal.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting SLU:


Great point. I shared similar sentiments around June 15th with 92L. I suspect the NHC want's to hold on the system for the time being just in case it makes a comeback. They won't want to discontinue the warnings tonight and then for the system to stage a comeback overnight forcing them to reissue the TS warnings tomorrow for the Gulf Coast. People are going to say the NHC doesn't know what it's about.

Rewinding to 2009 .. I remember as TS ANA weakened to a TD and approached the Leewards in August last year, the system was similarly disjointed but the NHC decided to hold on to it because it was close to land and warnings had already been issued. However, when they issued the post season report, they dissipated the system much earlier.

I believe that's what going to happen with BONNIE. It's better to hypecast a tropical storm than to undercast it ... if i'm allowed to say that ....
Great point!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting atmosweather:


Too much dry air, strong SE-erlies and zero outflow...that's why it's puzzling...convection CANNOT sustain itself anywhere near the LLC (or almost anywhere for that matter) under these conditions.
Another thing attributing to the loss of convection is the diurnal minimum, especially since it lacks a well-defined circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1135. SLU
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In all seriousness, there is no reason why this should be a tropical depression. Evident open circulation, if Bonnie is still a tropical depression, 92L should have been a tropical storm. Makes ya' think that the NHC classifies a system by their threat instead of going by the book.


Great point. I shared similar sentiments around June 15th with 92L. I suspect the NHC want's to hold on the system for the time being just in case it makes a comeback. They won't want to discontinue the warnings tonight and then for the system to stage a comeback overnight forcing them to reissue the TS warnings tomorrow for the Gulf Coast. People are going to say the NHC doesn't know what it's about.

Rewinding to 2009 .. I remember as TS ANA weakened to a TD and approached the Leewards in August last year, the system was similarly disjointed but the NHC decided to hold on to it because it was close to land and warnings had already been issued. However, when they issued the post season report, they dissipated the system much earlier.

I believe that's what going to happen with BONNIE. It's better to hypecast a tropical storm than to undercast it ... if i'm allowed to say that ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
Quoting Levi32:


Freaking yeah lol.
LOL.

Still waitin' for dem' west winds:

000
URNT15 KNHC 240255
AF305 0603A BONNIE HDOB 33 20100724
024530 2702N 08427W 9248 00812 0143 +214 //// 077029 029 029 000 01
024600 2701N 08426W 9249 00808 0142 +213 //// 078029 029 029 001 01
024630 2700N 08425W 9250 00808 0142 +215 +215 079029 029 028 000 00
024700 2659N 08423W 9249 00808 0143 +215 +215 077028 029 027 000 00
024730 2658N 08422W 9249 00809 0142 +215 //// 076028 029 027 000 01
024800 2657N 08421W 9248 00809 0142 +215 //// 077028 029 027 000 01
024830 2656N 08420W 9249 00808 0141 +215 //// 078027 028 028 000 01
024900 2655N 08418W 9250 00808 0141 +215 +215 076027 028 028 000 00
024930 2654N 08417W 9249 00808 0141 +216 +215 074027 027 028 000 00
025000 2653N 08416W 9249 00808 0141 +214 //// 070027 027 027 000 01
025030 2652N 08415W 9251 00807 0141 +214 //// 067028 029 027 000 05
025100 2651N 08414W 9244 00812 0140 +213 //// 065029 030 027 000 01
025130 2649N 08413W 9249 00807 0138 +215 //// 066028 029 027 000 01
025200 2648N 08413W 9249 00807 0139 +215 //// 064028 029 027 000 01
025230 2647N 08412W 9253 00803 0138 +215 //// 061027 028 027 000 01
025300 2645N 08411W 9248 00805 0134 +216 //// 059025 026 027 000 01
025330 2644N 08410W 9254 00796 0132 +214 //// 062026 027 028 000 01
025400 2642N 08410W 9248 00799 0129 +217 +216 062024 024 028 000 00
025430 2641N 08409W 9250 00796 0127 +218 +217 058024 026 028 001 00
025500 2639N 08408W 9247 00798 0126 +215 //// 055024 025 029 000 01
$$
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Levi32:
Byebye Bonnie. Convective burst is gone as expected.



Too much dry air, strong SE-erlies and zero outflow...that's why it's puzzling...convection CANNOT sustain itself anywhere near the LLC (or almost anywhere for that matter) under these conditions.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1132. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
1131. MZV
Good grief. The remnants of Ivan that re-emerged two weeks after he was "declassified" were more convincing than this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
could this be the bonnie chaser?:)

I hope it's name isn't Clyde.LOL
Member Since: April 6, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 283
1129. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exactly my point. If Bonnie is a tropical depression, 92L should have been a tropical storm.


Freaking yeah lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
1128. Patrap


Uh Oh..

"Crazy Ivan"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
1127. wxhatt
Quoting Levi32:
Byebye Bonnie. Convective burst is gone as expected.



I think Bonnie is on life support, for which even dmax cannot revive.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
Anywho, time for a little R&R, been stretching the sleep rather thin the past week. Time to rest up for the next one. Looking at the Carib & Western Atl, may not be a long rest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
By the way, check out Cape Hatteras.

EATLoop
What if Bonnie's remnants got caught up in that loop?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Quoting Levi32:
Honestly I am both surprised they are still calling it a depression and still more surprised that they are still forecasting intensification before landfall. Although Beven mentions the likelyhood of dissipation, I see no reason to go the other way. What is going to improve over the next 24 hours that will allow this to come back? Nothing. Oh well.
NHC has been well over most of the dynamical solutions for about the last day for this time period and for the GoM part of Bonnie's track...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1123. Patrap
Thats no Moon..


Thats a Space Station..




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Hopefully lil Bonnie will continue zipping along..if she were to stall inland there is abundant moisture south that could be advected north, causing long period rainfall....
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 984
1121. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, Rita 2005 was one of the most beautiful cases of such a setup. Upper-level low backing away over Cuba ventilated the tropical wave to the east and allowed Rita to develop east of the Bahamas.

Upper winds 0z September 18th, 2005, the time of Rita's first advisory as a tropical depression: Notice the upper low to the WSW over Cuba.



24 hours later.....wow just classic: Backing away SW ventilating Rita as upper ridging develops over the cyclone.



Another 24 hours later on the 20th the upper low south of Cuba was beginning to dissipate due to heat being released into the upper atmosphere, and Rita was nearing hurricane status.



Rita was a very classic case of the upper low being very much responsible for her formation, ventilating the tropical wave as it backs away and providing a favorable pocket to develop in. You won't wind a more classic case than this. That's why trough-splits in the tropics are favorable if the position of a disturbance relative them is right. Always watch to the east of upper lows retrograding away westward in the tropics.


Dang, Levi, I almost missed your post. Glad I read back. Awesome-thanks.
The "backing away" was timed just right. All the difference.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
Quoting Levi32:


I think they are confused.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.



It's over....doesn't matter if there is a low pressure center that's not what defines a tropical cyclone. Disturbances can have low centers and not be named. You have to have a closed center with winds all the way around. This is an open wave. Even if you could somehow justify it still being a depression, it won't be anymore within 6 hours. They should just stop with the advisories and send the plane home so they're not wasting time and money lol. Those poor pilots.
Exactly my point. If Bonnie is a tropical depression, 92L should have been a tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1118. Levi32
Byebye Bonnie. Convective burst is gone as expected.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
Good night Baha!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Good night everyone!

Nah--- I'll wait until recon investigates the COC again to see if there are any west winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1115. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:
THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.

What aircraft data? Did we miss something? The last W-erly wind found in the entire southern envelope was 3 hours ago.


I think they are confused.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.



It's over....doesn't matter if there is a low pressure center that's not what defines a tropical cyclone. Disturbances can have low centers and not be named. You have to have a closed center with winds all the way around. This is an open wave. Even if you could somehow justify it still being a depression, it won't be anymore within 6 hours. They should just stop with the advisories and send the plane home so they're not wasting time and money lol. Those poor pilots.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26459
1114. wxhatt
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just did a new blog on Bonnie.


Thanks for the update.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
Quoting Levi32:
Honestly I am both surprised they are still calling it a depression and still more surprised that they are still forecasting intensification before landfall. Although Beven mentions the likelyhood of dissipation, I see no reason to go the other way. What is going to improve over the next 24 hours that will allow this to come back? Nothing. Oh well.
Mmm... location in relation to the ULL? Better ventilation? Windup effect? It may all be CYA, but there's SOMEthing else influencing their thinking. Maybe even Bonnie's pattern of REALLY starting to look good just after dawn...

OK, I'm really gone now - shouldn't have stopped to read the advisory...

BONNIE
COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

This is why the HHrs are at it tonight.

G'nite!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting Levi32:


Tiny bit yeah.


I had a few drinks tonight just wanted to make sure my eyes were not playing tricks on me.
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
Quoting Chicklit:
Bonnie is getting blown away; however, things look more favorable for the Caribbean blob.
could this be the bonnie chaser?:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.