Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh no Mr Bill, say it ain't so...


AOI


Relocation or is Bonnie falling apart?
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Iowa, Pennsylvania, New York. hold on to your hats, its gonna be a restless night. Gracious thats a big MCC in MINN, SD...
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Quoting SLU:
Giving the problems with 92L i'm not surprised that this naming/non-naming issue has resurfaced. It also happened with 95L. In another year our total storm count might have already been 4 named storms.

92L
Alex
95L
Bonnie


If NHC went with the TS winds found in TD2 right before landfall we'd be looking at 5 named storms right now.
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1208. Levi32
Well here we go with the due west movement of the wave as it weakens and surrenders to the low-level flow again. The mid-level energy will continue towards the north gulf coast but the surface center will likely become undefinable and non-trackable with time. The wave itself may pass a good deal left of the forecast track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1207. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
What's interesting is that the ECMWF has been hinting at development off the east coast thanks to the remains of Bonnie and a trough.
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TropicalDepression Bonnie was^heading for a Matamoros,Mexico landfall in ~45hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 25.8N81.1W, 26.2N81.9W, 26.4N82.5W-26.4N83.4W, 26.4N83.4W-25.8N97.2W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD.Bonnie had a heading of 270.2degrees (0.2degrees north of dueWest) while traveling
a distance of 56miles(~90kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~19mph(~30km/h),
and was 858miles(~1,381kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
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Ouch.
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1203. centex
We are debating this comment - THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

So remant low forecast does follow NHC, sorry.
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1202. SLU
Giving the problems with 92L i'm not surprised that this naming/non-naming issue has resurfaced. It also happened with 95L. In another year our total storm count might have already been 4 named storms.

92L
Alex
95L
Bonnie
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Quoting pottery:

I think you may have misunderstood the idea of "beating a dead horse".
Using a hammer RESULTS in a dead horse.
Not the same thing at all....

heheheheheh
maybe thats all the little fella had...how do you know the equine was not deceased BEFORE he picked up the hammer
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Well now I'm off. Good night everybody!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1199. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



FLASH FLOOD WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 1018 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 1110 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1104 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 958 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 956 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 954 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 943 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 940 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 1034 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING EL PASO TX - KEPZ 833 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 932 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 919 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 1017 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 914 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 912 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 1006 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 904 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 1001 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 900 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 856 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 853 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 952 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING ABERDEEN SD - KABR 843 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BUFFALO NY - KBUF 943 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 942 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 839 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 937 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
NHC is not in a contest with anyone or anything. They're job is to save lives and protect property among other things.

Not that they're beyond criticism but please don't criticize them for winning or losing some unmentioned contest of classifying or declassifying. The contests are for those of this blog with each other IMHO.
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GFS "toy"
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Oh no Mr Bill, say it ain't so...


AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1195. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ghost of bonnie


ooooh,,dey sumthing Spinning out dere KOTG
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
The low is weaker and NO west winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 240315
AF305 0603A BONNIE HDOB 35 20100724
030530 2614N 08345W 9246 00788 0113 +223 //// 024006 007 022 000 05
030600 2613N 08343W 9247 00788 0113 +220 //// 005008 011 020 000 05
030630 2612N 08342W 9247 00788 0114 +222 //// 354010 011 018 000 05
030700 2613N 08340W 9249 00787 0114 +220 //// 009004 006 020 000 01
030730 2613N 08338W 9254 00780 0113 +220 //// 025002 003 017 001 05
030800 2612N 08337W 9215 00818 0112 +223 +222 159001 002 019 001 00
030830 2611N 08336W 9200 00835 0115 +221 //// 200005 006 020 000 01
030900 2610N 08334W 9265 00774 0115 +224 +224 212004 005 018 000 00
030930 2608N 08333W 9245 00792 0117 +219 //// 207004 005 019 000 01
031000 2607N 08332W 9249 00790 0118 +217 //// 183007 007 018 000 01
031030 2606N 08331W 9253 00786 0119 +217 //// 192008 009 017 000 01
031100 2605N 08330W 9249 00790 0118 +221 +221 191008 008 017 000 00
031130 2604N 08328W 9248 00792 0120 +218 //// 196008 009 017 000 01
031200 2603N 08327W 9252 00788 0120 +219 +218 187008 008 016 000 00
031230 2602N 08326W 9250 00791 0120 +220 +213 188008 008 017 000 00
031300 2601N 08325W 9252 00790 0120 +222 +212 193008 009 016 000 00
031330 2600N 08324W 9252 00790 0121 +221 +212 191009 010 016 000 00
031400 2558N 08322W 9252 00790 0122 +220 +213 176010 010 016 000 00
031430 2557N 08321W 9252 00792 0123 +220 +214 172011 012 015 000 00
031500 2556N 08320W 9248 00794 0123 +220 +215 174010 011 015 000 00
$$
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1188. Orcasystems 3:17 AM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ghost of bonnie


I see as per normal.. your in the dark :)
Action: Quote | Ignore User



at least my head ain't in the clouds
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1192. Ossqss
Quoting Levi32:


Not impossible, although it is the WRF. The wave near Hispaniola is a sneaky little devil. It should be watched as it comes westward.


Understood, this item has some interesting moves with the yellow dot on Thursday off of Africa(click to extend the run). It is about that time. Just a little further North.





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1190. Levi32
I really honestly wasn't aware that it was wrong to see something differently than the almighty NHC sees it? Goodness gracious. I have given them credit when credit is due and defended them when necessary. I'd rather not be labeled an anti-NHC nut-case by people who don't even read my blogs and see when I give them credit. Back it up or back off. Please.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting wfyweather:


Yeah... In the event of 92L... I think it deserved to be Alex... but in the end... it doesn't really matter... it opened up and was destroyed before significantly impacting land.


it was destroyed in like 12 hours, nothing long enough to classify it.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ghost of bonnie


I see as per normal.. your in the dark :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1187. SLU
INVEST 92L



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Quoting RobertM320:


To Levi and MH09, I'm mostly a lurker here and I've been impressed with the meterological knowledge the two of you have, especially for your age. But what those of us older have that you don't is the knowledge that, in the "real world", everything isn't always "by the book". Sometimes the correct answer is "because I (the NHC) said so."

Not everything is as concrete as you want it to be. You think because it doesn't have X and Y, it can't be Z, but in the real world sometimes it just is.

Again, not a knock on either of you personally, because your weather knowledge is much greater than mine, just accept that you can't always go by the book.

Best to both of you,

back to lurking
I agree with what your saying. I'm saying what I'm saying because it doesn't go by the book (which is what holds back the NHC from classifying disorganized systems). But in the "real world" you totally and completely correct.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1185. pottery
Quoting MZV:

Im partial to this one... I like the flies

I think you may have misunderstood the idea of "beating a dead horse".
Using a hammer RESULTS in a dead horse.
Not the same thing at all....

heheheheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

ghost of bonnie
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1183. Patrap
Quoting Chicklit:
Dr. Masters agreed about not classifying it.
It had to be sustained.
They're on the Bastardi bandwagon, critizing everything the NHC does.


Folks Pay Money to hear him pray tell.

Ciao-O-Doom


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting pottery:

That Hoss looks ded to me, Orc.


I would say they have flogged it Ded.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1181. Levi32
Quoting wfyweather:


Yeah... In the event of 92L... I think it deserved to be Alex... but in the end... it doesn't really matter... it opened up and was destroyed before significantly impacting land.


Well, if we get 17 named storms it will matter to me because of my forecast for 18 lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:








Yeah... In the event of 92L... I think it deserved to be Alex... but in the end... it doesn't really matter... it opened up and was destroyed before significantly impacting land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters agreed about not classifying it.
It had to be sustained.
They're on the Bastardi bandwagon, critizing everything the NHC does.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
Quoting Levi32:






Yep, the bottom one. The time stamp on my image was 12:00 UTC and the pass came 23 minutes later. 92L should have been classified.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1176. Levi32
Quoting centex:
anti NHC, need I say more. Same thing I always have about you.


Oh pardon me for disagreeing with a government agency....

Did you even pay attention when I praised the NHC for their long-range track forecast for Alex?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:


Solid easterly winds for a stretch of 100 miles south of the center....it's open. It opened between the two passes as it was barely closed on the first one with 5-knot westerlies 5-10 miles south of the center. It was on the edge and went over on the 2nd pass. It's open.


To Levi and MH09, I'm mostly a lurker here and I've been impressed with the meterological knowledge the two of you have, especially for your age. But what those of us older have that you don't is the knowledge that, in the "real world", everything isn't always "by the book". Sometimes the correct answer is "because I (the NHC) said so."

Not everything is as concrete as you want it to be. You think because it doesn't have X and Y, it can't be Z, but in the real world sometimes it just is.

Again, not a knock on either of you personally, because your weather knowledge is much greater than mine, just accept that you can't always go by the book.

Best to both of you,

back to lurking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1174. Patrap
Try the Lemon Squares,,real powdered suga too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1173. MZV
Quoting Orcasystems:




You guys have made your point... let them make another pass already ok.

I'm partial to this one... I like the animated flies for "effect."
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1171. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree 100%. I saved this image of 92L, a couple hours later ASCAT found a closed surface circulation (Levi remembers the ASCAT pass, I think he saved it). And yet, the NHC did not classify the system.









Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1170. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:




You guys have made your point... let them make another pass already ok.

That Hoss looks ded to me, Orc.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1169. centex
Quoting Levi32:


Lol. What now....care to tell me what I'm wrong about this time?
anti NHC, need I say more. Same thing I always have about you.
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Quoting Orcasystems:




You guys have made your point... let them make another pass already ok.


Amen! Obviously they think its still closed or the nhc would call this off! Besides... what if this thing does make a comeback with dmax and they stopped advs... there going to do the right thing- the safe thing- and continue advisories overnight
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1166. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Still no W-erlies...oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.


I follow this line of thinking.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting Orcasystems:




You guys have made your point... let them make another pass already ok.
Lol, yes, we shall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1162. Levi32
Quoting centex:
You should stop, only makes you look like crap. This crap is why some like me call you out.


Lol. What now....care to tell me what I'm wrong about this time?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Still no west winds and just a couple miles from the COC.

000
URNT15 KNHC 240305
AF305 0603A BONNIE HDOB 34 20100724
025530 2638N 08408W 9255 00788 0125 +218 +217 055023 024 028 000 00
025600 2636N 08407W 9246 00798 0124 +220 +216 054023 023 028 000 00
025630 2635N 08406W 9247 00797 0124 +216 //// 050023 024 028 000 01
025700 2633N 08405W 9246 00797 0123 +220 +214 050022 022 027 002 03
025730 2632N 08404W 9249 00794 0123 +218 +216 049021 021 026 000 00
025800 2631N 08403W 9248 00794 0123 +215 //// 049021 022 025 000 01
025830 2630N 08402W 9250 00791 0122 +216 //// 047020 021 025 000 01
025900 2628N 08401W 9249 00791 0120 +220 +218 050019 020 026 000 00
025930 2627N 08400W 9249 00790 0117 +220 +218 050018 019 025 000 00
030000 2626N 08358W 9249 00790 0118 +220 +219 051017 017 025 000 00
030030 2625N 08357W 9251 00788 0117 +221 +220 051015 015 024 000 00
030100 2624N 08356W 9249 00790 0118 +222 +220 045016 017 026 000 00
030130 2622N 08355W 9250 00788 0117 +225 +219 041016 016 026 000 00
030200 2621N 08354W 9250 00788 0116 +226 +218 038013 013 026 000 00
030230 2620N 08352W 9250 00788 0115 +225 +219 032012 012 024 000 03
030300 2619N 08351W 9248 00790 0114 +225 +218 030011 011 026 000 00
030330 2618N 08350W 9249 00787 0113 +225 +218 024009 010 025 000 00
030400 2617N 08348W 9251 00785 0112 +225 +218 047007 008 025 000 00
030430 2617N 08347W 9252 00784 0111 +227 +217 070005 005 023 001 03
030500 2615N 08346W 9246 00790 0113 +225 +222 056005 005 023 001 00
$$
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.