Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1611. angiest
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Ike was a weir looking storm. It almost looks like he's wearing a war chief's head dress.



As Ike was finishing coming onshore at the north end of Trinity Bay, I was an hour north of Dallas getting a little wind and rain from him and the clouds were very obviously from a tropical cyclone (to anyone who has ever been in one).
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Convection continues to expand.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks like Bonnie is blowing up enough convection tonight to maintain its TD status. I have a feeling it won't sustain the convection, but if it can, we could possibly get back to minimal TS status.



naw bro its safe rip now its in 40kt of shear i hate to RIp storms but u know... rcon andd satelite say it all the only reason the nhc hasnt made it an open low is because they want no surprises
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1608. Levi32
Quoting chrisdscane:




SO COLDER WINTERS IN sfl???


Warm PDO supports cold winters in the SE US like you had this past winter. Cold PDO supports warm in the southeast US. The Pacific northwest, Canada, and Alaska will see the full force of the northern hemisphere winter in 2010-2011.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Edited. :) Don't want a ban for the copyright. :)
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Looks like Bonnie is blowing up enough convection tonight to maintain its TD status. I have a feeling it won't sustain the convection, but if it can, we could possibly get back to minimal TS status.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ON JUL 24 0300 UTC IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26.4N 83.4W
MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL REGION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ON BOTH EAST AND WEST SIDES OF
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOW ONLY WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N84.5W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
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1604. angiest
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Isabel was a textbook annular hurricane


I didn't remember one way or the other if she was, going off of those pictures (especially the first one) I would have had not problem saying she was annular if I didn't see the outer-most edges of the storm. The interior definitely looks annular.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. I know! We wouldn't know what to do being hit in the day light. Those 4 I know were at night. I'll have to see if any others from way back were at night too.


5 out of 6 for me have been at night...it's not too fun LOL!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting atmosweather:


It does really get strange and insane after a few hours...Ike must have been quite an experience. Here in FL Frances was the most headbanging experience...almost 24 straight hours with 60+ mph winds and 15 inches of rain.


God bless you my friend. 10 hrs was enough for me, cannot imagine 24!!!! I imagine we had sustained winds in the 70-80 mph range for the 10 hrs of Ike..I wish I could remember when Ike really started, I think it was around 1030 that night and all I remember is being outside in the morning and see this little last gust of wid blow through the tree in my front yard and it was over, I think around 8-9 am somewhere in between. And yes, Ike was quite an experience!
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Quoting Levi32:


A PDO cycle, which is 30-40 years long on average. The PDO goes through such cycles in both "warm" and "cold" phases.



Warm (left) and Cold (right) phases of the PDO:



The cold PDO is developing this year as we get ready to head into a predominantly negative cycle for the next 30 years, and is evident on SST anomaly maps as a horseshoe-shaped ring of cold water along the western coast of North America. La Ninas are also a part of the PDO decadal pattern and are more dominant than El Ninos when the PDO is cold.





SO COLDER WINTERS IN sfl???
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, what is up with that?? It's like lets hit them when they can't see us. :)


Lol. I know! We wouldn't know what to do being hit in the day light. Those 4 I know were at night. I'll have to see if any others from way back were at night too.
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Quoting angiest:


There's still some banding evident, but only on the edges. Most identified pictures of annular hurricanes I've seen you can't see the banding at all.


Isabel was a textbook annular hurricane
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
Quoting angiest:


Did Isabel become annular shortly after some of those pictures?


It was before then...the large eye and very circular cloud pattern is indicative of an annular hurricane.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1597. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think Isabel was annular, or very close, in those pics...


There's still some banding evident, but only on the edges. Most identified pictures of annular hurricanes I've seen you can't see the banding at all.
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source=http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

getting out of range soon
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1595. Levi32
Quoting angiest:


Did Isabel become annular shortly after some of those pictures?


She's annular in all of those except possibly the last one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1594. xcool



updaterrr
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting angiest:


Did Isabel become annular shortly after some of those pictures?
I think Isabel was annular, or very close, in those pics...
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Wind shear is dropping and the warm waters are increasing the strenth of Bonnie!



convection is not really the thing that you use to show strength, the latest recon has a pressure of 1013mb, which puts Bonnie as a very weak depression

so despite the convection increasing, the pressure is rising and Bonnie continues to weaken
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting angiest:


That is exactly why I have no problem evacuating for a strong storm. Why should I put my little children through that when they don't like a thunderstorm that is over in half an hour?


You know I thought the same thing but my now 10 yr old sister and 7 yr old niece went through it here and it did not phase them at all. I think it is when something tragic happens during a storm it hurts kids. I was 5 during Alicia, and it did not bother me at all but I know all kids are different! If anything, the one reason for us a lil farther inland to evacuate is because of the time it takes to restore electricity. We went 13 days without it(we did have a generator tho), and of course others went over a month. That is hard on everyone, especially with our temps here in the summertime. But the way it goes, we should not have another major hurricane until the 2030's lol.
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1589. Levi32
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What is a PDO period?


A PDO cycle, which is 30-40 years long on average. The PDO goes through such cycles in both "warm" and "cold" phases.



Warm (left) and Cold (right) phases of the PDO:



The cold PDO is developing this year as we get ready to head into a predominantly negative cycle for the next 30 years, and is evident on SST anomaly maps as a horseshoe-shaped ring of cold water along the western coast of North America. La Ninas are also a part of the PDO decadal pattern and are more dominant than El Ninos when the PDO is cold.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Well the next day it would've been sunny. Lol. We get them at night. At 2 in the morning. All of the last 4. Rita, Humberto, Edouard, and Ike.


yeah, what is up with that?? It's like lets hit them when they can't see us. :)
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1587. angiest
Quoting Levi32:


Isabel? Yup.









Did Isabel become annular shortly after some of those pictures?
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Wind shear is dropping and the warm waters are increasing the strenth of Bonnie!

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Quoting angiest:


Humberto hit High Island, correct? So west Houston could have been bone dry and sunny and hot.


Well the next day it would've been sunny. Lol. We get them at night. At 2 in the morning. All of the last 4. Rita, Humberto, Edouard, and Ike.
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1584. Levi32
Quoting chrisdscane:


u said wut hurricane got u hocked plz link a pic i would love to see it


Isabel? Yup.







Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30% now very low
New Orleans 28% now very low
Mobile, AL 37% now very low
Pensacola, FL 30% now very low
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Judging from post 1562 I'd say that we need to keep abreast of this cyclone.
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1580. xcool
getting stronger
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting PtownBryan:


Going through a hurricane is for sure an experience. I barely remember Alicia as a child, but I won't forget Ike. 10 or so hrs of the same howling winds and noises...now I love tropical weather too, and going out on my front porch watching the transformers blow and the trees take a beating and listening to the sounds...man it was awesome. But 10 or so hrs of the SAME SOUNDS drives one insane! But you need to experience once, safely tho! And it can be scary! I was with Ike a time or two and I am 15 miles inland from the ocean!


It does really get strange and insane after a few hours...Ike must have been quite an experience. Here in FL Frances was the most headbanging experience...almost 24 straight hours with 60+ mph winds and 15 inches of rain.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1578. xcool
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 05:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 5:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°27'N 84°11'W (26.45N 84.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 miles (233 km) to the W (265°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 797m (2,615ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 37kts (From the SE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.91 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 758m (2,487ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:46:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting Levi32:


Oh we're not off topic it's the weather....and it's not like there's a hurricane about to come ashore.

Coldest I've seen was -28F here in Homer, which is really quite moderate because I've grown up in a warm PDO period. Frankly, we could be about to see the worst winter here in Alaska in over 30 years this winter, with the PDO going as cold as it is right now. It's going to be dang brutal, and with my college up in Fairbanks, I'll be guaranteed to see -50F and below on several nights. The next couple decades will restore our reputation as the most dangerous place to live in North America, similar to the weather Alaska was known for from the late 1940s through the mid-1970s when the PDO was last cold.


u said wut hurricane got u hocked plz link a pic i would love to see it
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Quoting angiest:


Humberto hit High Island, correct? So west Houston could have been bone dry and sunny and hot.


I worked in west houston during Humberto...I don't even remember it raining lol. I lived in pearland then and still do and I don't even think we got a drop from it either!

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Quoting angiest:


For some bizarre reason I don't remember Humberto at all. Must not have given us any rain even.


He hit High Island and roared NE. Second eye of a hurricane to go directly across Orange County in as many years. He definitely rained. iT WAS HITTING me from all around horizontally as I was watching out the window. It was a wild night. But my dog needs therapy now. Poor baby. i IMAGINE IT WAS 10 times as loud to her.
:(



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1573. scott39
Well, If she not developing, at least shes putting one heck of show now! The little tease!
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1572. angiest
Quoting PtownBryan:


Going through a hurricane is for sure an experience. I barely remember Alicia as a child, but I won't forget Ike. 10 or so hrs of the same howling winds and noises...now I love tropical weather too, and going out on my front porch watching the transformers blow and the trees take a beating and listening to the sounds...man it was awesome. But 10 or so hrs of the SAME SOUNDS drives one insane! But you need to experience once, safely tho! And it can be scary! I was with Ike a time or two and I am 15 miles inland from the ocean!


That is exactly why I have no problem evacuating for a strong storm. Why should I put my little children through that when they don't like a thunderstorm that is over in half an hour?
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Quoting angiest:


Humberto hit High Island, correct? So west Houston could have been bone dry and sunny and hot.


A little more info...

Hurricane Humberto was a minimal hurricane that formed and intensified faster than any other tropical cyclone on record before landfall. Developing on September 12, 2007, in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone rapidly strengthened and struck High Island, Texas, with winds of about 90 mph (150 km/h) early on September 13. It steadily weakened after moving ashore, and on September 14 it began dissipating over northwestern Georgia as it interacted with an approaching cold front.

Damage was fairly light, estimated at approximately $50 million (2007 USD). Precipitation peaked at 14.13 inches (358.9 mm), while wind gusts to 85 mph (137 km/h) were reported. The heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding, which damaged or destroyed dozens of homes, and closed several highways. Trees and power lines were downed, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers. The hurricane caused one fatality in the State of Texas. Additionally, as the storm progressed inland, rainfall was reported throughout the Southeast United States.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Even more areal coverage and intensity.

Very nice..maybe its a mega supercell with a cat-7 tornado?
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Hurricane hunters fly overhead most days here in Biloxi. Very distinct sound as they rumble by.
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Quoting angiest:


I don't know if you are correct, but that is the same thought I had. And even if they flew through a storm over land they couldn't really drop probes.
Ummm, they have. They tend to release dropsondes at the same locations as the mobile research towers for a landfalling TC for validation and power law reasons. Did so for Katrina (this I know), ... and others, I am sure.
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Quoting atmosweather:


It's indescribable in both extremes. The meteorological side in you is in awe...the human side of you is literally scared to death. Although out of the 6 hurricanes I've been through...Andrew's the only one I never want a repeat of.


Going through a hurricane is for sure an experience. I barely remember Alicia as a child, but I won't forget Ike. 10 or so hrs of the same howling winds and noises...now I love tropical weather too, and going out on my front porch watching the transformers blow and the trees take a beating and listening to the sounds...man it was awesome. But 10 or so hrs of the SAME SOUNDS drives one insane! But you need to experience once, safely tho! And it can be scary! I was with Ike a time or two and I am 15 miles inland from the ocean!
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how small was marco again?
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Even more areal coverage and intensity.



I'm guessing this is all thanks to DMAX.
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Quoting cntrclckwiseSpenn:


I've heard the same reports too..and I think I remeber straw in chopped down telephone poles.

Miami was like Tampa with charley...a very close call. Could of been a lot worse than it already was...


Yeah but in Andrew Miami still got slammed with 100+ mph winds...the NHC recorded Category 4 wind gusts in the edge of the N-ern eyewall.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1563. angiest
Quoting TexasHurricane:




I must have been out of town with no access to TWC or internet.
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Even more areal coverage and intensity.

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1561. Levi32
Quoting GBguy88:


If I could, I would trade you a hurricane and 3 months of 90 heat for a breath of Alaskan air :-) You're fortunate to live in such a beautiful state. That said, there's nothing quite like being inside the eye of a hurricane, especially a strong one ;-) Definitely straying off topic now, but what's the coldest temperature you've ever felt? For me it's single digit wind chills, but never subzero. I'm fascinated by bitter cold for some reason.


Oh we're not off topic it's the weather....and it's not like there's a hurricane about to come ashore.

Coldest I've seen was -28F here in Homer, which is really quite moderate because I've grown up in a warm PDO period. Frankly, we could be about to see the worst winter here in Alaska in over 30 years this winter, with the PDO going as cold as it is right now. It's going to be dang brutal, and with my college up in Fairbanks, I'll be guaranteed to see -50F and below on several nights. The next couple decades will restore our reputation as the most dangerous place to live in North America, similar to the weather Alaska was known for from the late 1940s through the mid-1970s when the PDO was last cold.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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