Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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BONNIE.35kts-1008mb-23.8N-77.8W
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1096. russh46
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

5%



Thanks
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Quoting Huracaneer:
StormW, getting down to the very specific here, I was going to go to a kayak picnic tomorrow in mid-Pinellas County (Veterans Park to be more specific), think Bonnie will impact us (i.e. keep the kayaks in or out). Thanks. By the way nice job on the Barometer-Bob show yesterday.


passing showeres wind 15mph, 50/50 rain chance. Kyak in the open?? I wouldnt but Im a weak fat guy
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Quoting Patrap:



Those look like some pretty heavy squalls, maybe Bonnie will find a way to "earn her name" LOL
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1091. Tazbeat
Very light rain in Ft Myers. With highs staying in the mid-80s today with the cloud cover, it will give my A/C a break.
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1090. ssmate
Quoting tkeith:
kinda reminds me of Darren Sharper playin free saftey...
Quoting tkeith:
kinda reminds me of Darren Sharper playin free saftey...
I don't think that ULL is vastly overated and old and frail.
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Quoting russh46:
You would think there would be a tornado watch posted for inland counties by now south of the lake.

5%

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Have a good day everybody. Will see ya'll this afternoon. Pat, good luck with the garage sale.
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Looked around and haven't been able to find west winds. Has anyone else found them? I think the coc is open.
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1085. wxhatt
Quoting leelee75k:
Why does it seem that if it's not gloom and doom most of you are not happy with just watching a tropical cyclogenesis?

Bonnie is my idea of a well behaved storm, small, weak and fast moving. I wish all cyclones behave like her.


I agree.
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1084. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
What is this above the DR?

Water...lol j/k ...really ...jk
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1083. Patrap
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1080. russh46
You would think there would be a tornado watch posted for inland counties by now south of the lake.
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1078. Patrap


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Quoting StormW:


What time?
9:00 AM to about 2:00 PM
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Quoting Huracaneer:
StormW, getting down to the very specific here, I was going to go to a kayak picnic tomorrow in mid-Pinellas County (Veterans Park to be more specific), think Bonnie will impact us (i.e. keep the kayaks in or out). Thanks. By the way nice job on the Barometer-Bob show yesterday.


I'd bring the kayaks but keep an eye on the weather... the winds will be around any thunderstorms primarily...
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
BTW is CycloneOZ in South Beach for an intercept? :)

and a mohito
he should be headed for the gulf coast if he's interested in the storm. bonnie has picked up speed after spending three days near pr/hisp.
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1073. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:
kinda reminds me of Darren Sharper playin free saftey...


O yeah..

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Quoting SavannahStorm:
BTW is CycloneOZ in South Beach for an intercept? :)


He's probably in his hurricane suit.
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1070. Grothar
Quoting gator23:

i read it, my apolgies everyone that is fascinating reading.


Glad you liked. And I'm glad Bonnie is not a Katrina. We are just getting some rain, but the gusts are increasing a little in some squalls here in Ft. Lauderdale. I don't expect too much from this one. Lights could go out, but that happens in a thunderstorm as well..
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now the blog will go back to being quiet again
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KAMX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20100723 &endTime=-1&duration=4
(Using Chrome, can't post links properly)
Above is a link to current 4 hour radar loop of the Miami area.. COC is apparent, and it is still moving WNW. Developing several nice banding features as it crosses the GS. I have a feeling they might bump the track a bit more northward at 11am, but nothing major. Forecast for SFL looks about the same, heavy rain, windy, especially as the COC nears land (You won't see much wind ahead of Bonnie, for all those seemingly expecting it to be blowing gale force outside right now). As the NHC stated, most of Bonnie's wind is displaced North and East of the center, therefore linear logic dictates that you won't feel Bonnie's wind until Bonnie is South and West of you.
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1067. gator23
Keeper, check your mail. thx
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1066. tkeith
Quoting Patrap:
A Dominating Mid Gulf ULL.


.Sheeesh..
kinda reminds me of Darren Sharper playin free saftey...
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1065. 7544
strom do u believe the cmc did a great job with the track of bonnie hit it dead on right
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
1064. RJT185
Quoting leelee75k:
Why does it seem that if it's not gloom and doom most of you are not happy with just watching a tropical cyclogenesis?

Bonnie is my idea of a well behaved storm, small, weak and fast moving. I wish all cyclones behave like her.


Immaturity for the most part, others just haven't witnessed first hand the destruction and power of one of these beasts.


Typical "not in my backyard" behavior. Quite. sad.
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BTW is CycloneOZ in South Beach for an intercept? :)
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How come the wave south east of Bonnie doesn't have a number yet?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I wish to apologize on Bonnie's behalf to all those who feel cheated that she isn't the savage, destructive hell-beast they were hoping for--or, worse, feel they were somehow "promised". Refunds will be made available to all those who purchased tickets for the spectacle.

Oh, wait... ;-)

Guys, every storm is unique, including Bonnie. Watching them, studying them, and dissecting them post-mortem can teach meteorologists a whole lot. So while some will continue to be upset that she's not Katrina II, most right-thinking types will agree that following her progress has been--and will continue to be--a satisfying and rewarding experience.


Let's just say it's a heads up for what the future might be capable of bringing. It's not a huge powerful storm, but it is a factor of nature that should be respected.
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1060. wxhatt
Quoting StormW:


No, I sent you an email back. You didn't receive it?


Got it, Thank You :)
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I wish to apologize on Bonnie's behalf to all those who feel cheated that she isn't the savage, destructive hell-beast they were hoping for--or, worse, feel they were somehow "promised". Refunds will be made available to all those who purchased tickets for the spectacle.

Oh, wait... ;-)

Guys, every storm is unique, including Bonnie. Watching them, studying them, and dissecting them post-mortem can teach meteorologists a whole lot. So while some will continue to be upset that she's not Katrina II, most right-thinking types will agree that following her progress has been--and will continue to be--a satisfying and rewarding experience.
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1058. palmpt
Quoting SavannahStorm:


cyclonebuster's tunnels?

STORMTOP!!!!!
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1057. Patrap
A Dominating Mid Gulf ULL.


.Sheeesh..
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1056. gator23
Quoting Grothar:


Gator, here is the link the the NHC synopsis. Katrinia did in fact, strengthen over Broward and Dade County. Read it carefully.

By the time it reached Monroe County, which is to the South of Dade and Broward it did weaken.

I think you will find the article interesting.

Link

i read it, my apolgies everyone that is fascinating reading.
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Why does it seem that if it's not gloom and doom most of you are not happy with just watching a tropical cyclogenesis?

Bonnie is my idea of a well behaved storm, small, weak and fast moving. I wish all cyclones behave like her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW, getting down to the very specific here, I was going to go to a kayak picnic tomorrow in mid-Pinellas County (Veterans Park to be more specific), think Bonnie will impact us (i.e. keep the kayaks in or out). Thanks. By the way nice job on the Barometer-Bob show yesterday.
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1053. Patrap
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Quoting StormW:


What in the world are you talking about?


The system NW of PR, 30 knot shear.

Get's a bit better in 72 hours.

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Quoting breald:


I can never open any of Pat's links. I have a hard time with some of Ike's links as well. :(


I bet you are using IE8 - try using Firefox, you can download it for free. Either that or your security setting are set very high, so the link fails due to the amount of time it is taking to load.
Hope that helps.
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Quoting StormW:


Thank you!


Morning Chief,

Possibly a Positive NAO for early August.




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1048. wxhatt
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Morn'n everyone...coffee?


good morning,

sounds good!
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The NHC does normally do a great job, yes their track my be a little too south this time, but who gets it right perfectly every time? Stop bashing the experts, cause I highly doubt any of you who bash them a have enough education in meteorology to challenge them. Plus even if if you did, you wouldn't last a week doing their job lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.