Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Quoting Jeff9641:
By the way what was up with all the Patrap jokes last night. That guy bothers nobody. Must have been kids...


booze?
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1145. divdog
Hey Jeff

Nice call on this being a high ts or hurricane before it hit land. noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooootttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting StormHype:
Little rain squall coming in. Does Cantore have his goggles on with a guy out of frame holding a leaf blower towards his face?


Not yet, but meanwhile we're watching Stephanie Abrams play with her Ipad on live TV...
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lol no onee would golf in this
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1178
Quoting StonedCrab:


I thought you were golfing?

He was complaining that there wasn't enough wind earlier, perhaps he likes St. Andrew type conditions?
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ok i gota big boy question if something were to develope in the far out atlantic would it go strait west or curve to north atlantic
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1178
Little rain squall coming in. Does Cantore have his goggles on with a guy out of frame holding a leaf blower towards his face?
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Quoting chrisdscane:
hello pl live from kendal nnw around 9 mph ligth rain miderate at times heavy squal line movin in thx next update in half hour


I thought you were golfing?
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Quoting Grothar:


Glad you liked. And I'm glad Bonnie is not a Katrina. We are just getting some rain, but the gusts are increasing a little in some squalls here in Ft. Lauderdale. I don't expect too much from this one. Lights could go out, but that happens in a thunderstorm as well..


Grothar, for some reason I was thinking you were around the middle West coast of Florida. I did not know you were in Ft Lauderdale area also....we have a lot of bloggers here from Broward county, more than I realized.
Hi ya neighbor.
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1137. 7544
worst weather still off shore of dade and broward co. the next hour uts a coming in could see winds gusting from 45 to 50 mph not for long tho so if you not seeing anything yet you will be soon as per the local news
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
1136. tkeith
anyone think they'll downgrade it at next TWO?
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1135. myway
Like a summer afternoon rain shower now in Sunny Isles Beach.
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Can somebody post the ECMWF seasonal forecast for ASO.
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I guess we see what happens when the outflow goes away, the system can't strengthen. Where's that Reed??..LOL..J/K
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Bonnie taking a jog to the NW, looks to come ashore in Miami Bay.

1KM RADAR
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after that line passes broward/dade, its pretty dry on radar.. is that true, or is that just the radar?
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Prob be 40mph at 11 as well. I doubt this would have happened in 09. Could be a harbinger of things to come this season.
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hello pl live from kendal nnw around 9 mph ligth rain miderate at times heavy squal line movin in thx next update in half hour
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1178
1128. tkeith
Quoting ssmate:
Tk, unfortunately I can't.
our motto for 43 years..."there's always next year" :)
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Quoting fldude99:
Now that we know that Bonnie won't amount to much..I hope it's not a wake up call for the next month or so


Many thought there wouldn't be anything for the rest of July. This may or may not be a harbinger of things to come but it certainly makes for interesting blogging!
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1124. wxhatt
Quoting seflagamma:


yes Irene was a hurricane but it was not expected to become a hurricane...by the time the hurricane warnings were issued the storm was on top of us. We had already lost power once the warnings were issued.


Yea, I hate those sneaky storms! We had one do that and took a bunch of people by surprise.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
1123. ssmate
Tk, unfortunately I can't.
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Now that we know that Bonnie won't amount to much..I hope it's not a wake up call for the next month or so
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What happened to the blog yesterday?
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:
I would like to point out that the 8am NHC coordinates were 24.7N, 79.8W....while Recon's latest fix was 24.8N, 79.3W... North and East of the NHC's last center fix...

Interesting.
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Quoting cutlerbay32:
The commute from Cutler Bay (just north of Homestead) to Brickell (near downtown Miami) was fine. Light rain, medium-to-dark clouds but barely any wind with local forecasters promising worse weather to come. Hope Bonnie cooperates and clears out by the end of the work day. We have more impressive weekly thunderstorms! Just got lucky this time. I have been lurking for months- thank you to all the "weather smarties" for all of the valuable information.


The first real rainbands from Bonnie are just coming ashore in Dade County right now. I've a felling that commute won't be so nice in another 15 minutes or so...
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Quoting tkeith:
ouch...can you say Lombardi?


I can say Dave O'Brien here in Miami :)
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Quoting StormW:


Think most of it should be past here by then.

Just figure, if she's moving 18 mph, times 24 hours? 432 miles.
Thanks StormW! The kayak fleet will sail! Now to turn the eyes east again, is there something North of Puerto Rico as some had said or is it just a ULL? It seems to have some vorticity at all levels and divergence and convergence?
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Quoting IKE:


I haven't either. I've looked at buoys near the COC...none either.


Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 40 sec ago

Light Rain
81 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2000 ft
Overcast 15000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


Just a bunch of NNW winds in the keys.
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1113. IKE
Hollywood, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 6 sec ago
Rain
81 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 1700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3100 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
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Port St. Lucie is getting shower activity from some of these outlier bands.
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Quoting gator23:

i read it, my apolgies everyone that is fascinating reading.


Its alright. I was just shocked when all of a sudden I heard silence after some pretty high winds about 60-65 mph. And I was like "Nooo it isn't landfalling here is it?". When the second half came around with winds at Hurricane force, barely but still some.
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Quoting IKE:


I haven't either. I've looked at buoys near the COC...none either.


Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 40 sec ago

Light Rain
81 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2000 ft
Overcast 15000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


8mph? lol, must have been a squall line.
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1108. tkeith
Quoting ssmate:
I don't think that ULL is vastly overated and old and frail.
ouch...can you say Lombardi?
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I would like to point out that the 8am NHC coordinates were 24.7N, 79.8W....while Recon's latest fix was 24.8N, 79.3W... North and East of the NHC's last center fix...
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Quoting Patrap:


pretty heavy line moving in
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1104. IKE
Quoting vortextrance:
Looked around and haven't been able to find west winds. Has anyone else found them? I think the coc is open.


I haven't either. I've looked at buoys near the COC...none either.


Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 40 sec ago

Light Rain
81 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2000 ft
Overcast 15000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting russh46:
You would think there would be a tornado watch posted for inland counties by now south of the lake.

Nothing but flood watches/warning. But, I'm pretty sure they're keeping a lookout for anything that might be threatening.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
The commute from Cutler Bay (just north of Homestead) to Brickell (near downtown Miami) was fine. Light rain, medium-to-dark clouds but barely any wind with local forecasters promising worse weather to come. Hope Bonnie cooperates and clears out by the end of the work day. We have more impressive weekly thunderstorms! Just got lucky this time. I have been lurking for months- thank you to all the "weather smarties" for all of the valuable information.
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grrr nota good golf day
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1178
I wouldn't count Bonnie out yet. With the ULL forecast to weaken once she is in the Gulf, she could strengthen a bit.
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Quoting ssmate:
I don't think that ULL is vastly overated and old and frail.


Ouch
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BONNIE.35kts-1008mb-23.8N-77.8W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.