Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Storm. I cannot help but wonder where 456 and Levi are....We have a T.S. affecting Miami.


Levi was on early this morning. Finally went to bed after the 0200 update.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Here is Channel 7's LIVE CAM from N Bay Village
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1193. dearmas
Ok so why does WU have Tampa under a Tropical Storm Warning but NHC does not? Help me understand !!! Thanks :)
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I don't think it's a good picnic day in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale today. Many people will be surprised at the strength of even of a tropical storm. Maybe a good wake up call.
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Quoting MiamiWarnings:
i know, strom! but why are we under a ts warnings, if the coditions are not there?

Because the potential for conditions to be there are. Its just like a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. You can be under one, but not have a severe thunderstorm or tornado overhead.
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1190. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:
The further right it stays probably the stronger it will get due to the beater to its west.


Your right, It's getting out of the ULL way.
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1189. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


If the pattern stays like that, yes.
Good morning Storm. I cannot help but wonder where 456 and Levi are....We have a T.S. affecting Miami.
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Nasty rain band moving onshore.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

FLZ072-074-172-173-231330-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
848 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...

...FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS...

...FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS...

AT 841 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A RAINBAND EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST
OF HALLANDALE TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 15 MILES EAST
OF OCEAN REEF...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

MIAMI BEACH...
BAL HARBOUR...
AVENTURA...
ALLAPATTAH...
BROWNSVILLE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2567 8015 2567 8016 2569 8019 2573 8016
2573 8023 2560 8031 2551 8032 2547 8020
2553 8018 2553 8017 2535 8024 2535 8025
2539 8026 2547 8021 2537 8030 2587 8036
2609 8024 2609 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 106DEG 15KT 2602 7999 2592 8007
2580 8011 2568 8011 2554 8010 2545 8009
2532 8005

$$
GARCIA


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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Bonnie taking a jog to the NW, looks to come ashore in Miami Bay.

1KM RADAR


She's been moving north of the forecast points for the last 24 hours it seems...
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The first real rainbands from Bonnie are just coming ashore in Dade County right now. I've a felling that commute won't be so nice in another 15 minutes or so...


You were right on. In Brickell it is verrry dark outside now but at the same time the wind and rain look quite moderate from my 5th floor view. Just glad I got an early start this morning.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Looks like hurakat was on the money with Bonnie.. IT nailed the forecast. Congrats to you hurakat if your out there.


You're right. Probably why blog is so quiet... along with the fact that so many kids stayed up all night watching hopefully for RI during Dmax that didn't happen (as expected) and now will sleep in until noon.
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In West Broward Cty...No wind at all..It is raining..like a normal afternoon...where is Cantore? I also know that Good Morning's weatheman is on South Beach..
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Quoting StormW:


Be careful what you wish for this season.

Yes, this storm is a small system...but later on we could get a much, much bigger system similar to Alex again, and all this wish casters would wish that wouldn't happen.
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Quoting rossclick:


pretty heavy line moving in


Mornin Ross. I guess food chasers in Del Ray is out of the question now...
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Quoting divdog:
Hey Jeff

Nice call on this being a high ts or hurricane before it hit land. noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooootttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!

okok gtfo and leave the doctor alone
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The further right it stays probably the stronger it will get due to the beater to its west.
WVLoop
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1178. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:

He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner...or maybe Biloxi.


LOL,

I know, He's always on it!

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Now is a good time to vote in the WUNDERPOLL!!! I bet we can all get it right!
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1176. QMiami
... A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AND METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...

... FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS...

... FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS...

AT 841 AM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A RAINBAND EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF HALLANDALE TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 15 MILES EAST OF OCEAN REEF... MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

MIAMI BEACH... BAL HARBOUR... AVENTURA... ALLAPATTAH... BROWNSVILLE...

this is my area and i'm on the bay 15th floor not so bad yet steady rain a little gusty
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Quoting StormW:


Be careful what you wish for this season.
AMEN!!
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1174. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Yes...I do.
me too...
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
As long as he stays away from us here. Last time he came here wasn't good at all...

awww...sorry. added biloxi as an afterthought. Evidently the NOLA plane found coordinates slightly more northerly.
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NE at 33 mph at buoy offshore--whoo hooo.

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Quoting MiamiWarnings:
I want my TS winds, dammit, where are they?


Offshore.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1168. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:

He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner.
good news for us Chicklit :)
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Quoting wxhatt:


LOL, he is getting it now though...


He better milk it for viewers. This might be as bad as it gets. Sun will be out by 3pm. All the lazy kiddies normally on this blog will oversleep and miss most of it.
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Quoting Chicklit:

He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner.
As long as he stays away from us here. Last time he came here wasn't good at all...
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1164. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
anyone think they'll downgrade it at next TWO?


Yes...I do.
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Looks like hurakat was on the money with Bonnie.. IT nailed the forecast. Congrats to you hurakat if your out there.
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1161. wxhatt
Quoting coffeecrusader:
This year is shaping up to be a bust. Too many ULL's and too much SAL. Waves coming off Africa are being choked by all the dry air. Guess upward MJO, record high SST's, and La Nina are not enough to get things going.


I sure hope those inhibitors continue. There is still the meat of the season to go through though, and weather patterns could change...
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it's a little chippy on here today. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot??

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Quoting wxhatt:


LOL, he is getting it now though...

He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner...or maybe Biloxi.
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1158. tkeith
Quoting chrisdscane:



SO IT WOULD GO WEST?
the caps locks button is right above the shift button...
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Each storm always got a little wrinkle to it Bonnie may go down as the storm that was moving faster than her surface winds.But is is dropping some nice rain.Perfect environment to do nothing.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting StormW:


If ya go here, you can pick the variables you want.
ECMWF


Thanks.

Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting StormW:





SO IT WOULD GO WEST?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
TS Bonnie Update w/ Video
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This year is shaping up to be a bust. Too many ULL's and too much SAL. Waves coming off Africa are being choked by all the dry air. Guess upward MJO, record high SST's, and La Nina are not enough to get things going.
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OMFG U GUYS R FUNNING THE LEAF BLOWER JOKE LOL!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
1149. wxhatt
Quoting StormHype:
Little rain squall coming in. Does Cantore have his goggles on with a guy out of frame holding a leaf blower towards his face?


LOL, he is getting it now though...
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Ft. Lauderdale Buoy
Station PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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