Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1247 - 1197

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Quoting CybrTeddy:


You should have watched the Barometer Bob show last night. While yes it does appear a downward MJO will take hold of most of the Atlantic we must note a few things

1) most of the heat is still bundled in the Atlantic thanks to those warm Sea Surface Temperatures. The GFS has been predicting a downward motion for two months and it never materialized because the upward MJO went back around to our basin. While we will go into a downward motion it won't be as strong as the GFS is indicating.

2) MJO will still be upward over Africa, which means enhanced moisture over Africa that will cause less dust thanks to wetter sand and more powerful tropical waves emerging off Africa.

3) MJO isn't a decided in formation of a tropical cyclone. It helps a lot, but isn't the key ingredient to have.


Nice post! Thanks for the detailed explanation...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeebsa:
Looks like Bonnie gave birth over P.R.
Any chance of development there?
Possible copy cat.

Spawn of Bonnie?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kristina40:


I'm hoping he puts on that shiny silver suit like Oz wears ;)


How about getting Stuck in the Sand like the great Oz did with TD#2 :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The actually center, although very ill-defined at the moment, is east of Key Largo. You can see the ill-defined swirl South of the heavy convection. The center is not near Miami.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Yay! MiamiHurricane09 is on the ground.
Do you have a webcam? Galoshes?


I'm hoping he puts on that shiny silver suit like Oz wears ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting saintsfan06:
Storm,

What will prevent Bonnie from getting stronger once in the Gulf? Don't get me wrong I am VERY happy it won't!! I did not feel like evacuating this weekend!


ULL causing shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Activity has just picked up here in Miami (zip code: 33145). As a strong rain band moves onshore heavy rainfall has begun to fall, also noted are some gusts in excess of 20 knots. So far today I have received an approximated 1. 77in. in rain. Really dark right now as well.



Yeah the shower curtain is blowing hard...Hialeah is under the gun!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It's 5 O'Clock somewhere! Drink one for me...Landsharks and pulled pork sandwiches will be in order while we sit on the porch and observe what Bonnie will bring us in hopefully copius amounts of rain! What is everyone else here doing in observance of Bonnie day in South FL?


My daughter and I are having a lazy day in the house. TS Bonnie is a good excuse for a 8 1/2 month pregnant stay at home mom to have a much needed lazy day :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:
IS THAT LIKE the :eye wall" of bonnie


More like the shower of Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yay! MiamiHurricane09 is on the ground.
Do you have a webcam? Galoshes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1234. jeebsa
Looks like Bonnie gave birth over P.R.
Any chance of development there?
Possible copy cat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. hydrus
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It's 5 O'Clock somewhere! Drink one for me...Landsharks and pulled pork sandwiches will be in order while we sit on the porch and observe what Bonnie will bring us in hopefully copius amounts of rain! What is everyone else here doing in observance of Bonnie day in South FL?
LOL! Will you guys stop talking about food? This has got to be the eatenest weatherblog on the planet!...Now I want grilled wings and onion rings. P.S. And it is only 8;30 here..Sheesh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has Bonnie made landfall?
Because half of her convection seems to be over South Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Should land affect the strength of Bonnie?


Likely. I think Doc M said it best though about predicting the storms intensity. There are so many things that could change or would have to occur for this storm to get stronger than what it is currently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm,

What will prevent Bonnie from getting stronger once in the Gulf? Don't get me wrong I am VERY happy it won't!! I did not feel like evacuating this weekend!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
The MJO is going negative for at least 2 weeks. Going to have to be a rogue system out there to look for development most likely.


You should have watched the Barometer Bob show last night. While yes it does appear a downward MJO will take hold of most of the Atlantic we must note a few things

1) most of the heat is still bundled in the Atlantic thanks to those warm Sea Surface Temperatures. The GFS has been predicting a downward motion for two months and it never materialized because the upward MJO went back around to our basin. While we will go into a downward motion it won't be as strong as the GFS is indicating.

2) MJO will still be upward over Africa, which means enhanced moisture over Africa that will cause less dust thanks to wetter sand and more powerful tropical waves emerging off Africa.

3) MJO isn't a decided in formation of a tropical cyclone. It helps a lot, but isn't the key ingredient to have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Be careful what you wish for this season.


Hey storm just curious will the Atlantic become more or less favorable for development over the next couple of weeks? Based on MJO?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
The MJO is going negative for at least 2 weeks. Going to have to be a rogue system out there to look for development most likely.


Is negative MJO that big a kiss of death for tropical systems? I can't remember...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It would appear that the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie will make landfall in Southern Miami Dade County within the next hour or two. Tropical storm force winds and weather coming ashore now into Broward and Miami Dade counties.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1221. leo305
the highest winds are just off shore..

the highest winds are north of the center and on the north east side..

TS BONNIE's center may make landfall around central dade.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Activity has just picked up here in Miami (zip code: 33145). As a strong rain band moves onshore heavy rainfall has begun to fall, also noted are some gusts in excess of 25-35 knots. So far today I have received an approximated 1. 77in. in rain. Really dark right now as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cantore has resorted to standing under gutter spigots for his live shots....

Anyone watching TWC a minute ago knows what I'm talking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rossclick:


Doesn't mean I cant get some grilled wings and afternoon brew lol


It's 5 O'Clock somewhere! Drink one for me...Landsharks and pulled pork sandwiches will be in order while we sit on the porch and observe what Bonnie will bring us in hopefully copius amounts of rain! What is everyone else here doing in observance of Bonnie day in South FL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
The MJO is going negative for at least 2 weeks. Going to have to be a rogue system out there to look for development most likely.


Not likely homes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@StormW,

Looking at 3 hr radar loop and my little monkey eyes see some N bias to the COC track from what was forecasts by NHC. Is the high not as strong as expected?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Levi is probably still asleep (Alaska), and 456 has updated his blog already.
Thank you Storm. Bonnie is interesting to watch. I wonder if it will still be a T.S. after crossing the southern tip of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Should land affect the strength of Bonnie?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
The MJO is going negative for at least 2 weeks. Going to have to be a rogue system out there to look for development most likely.


ya but were?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1128
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

We have more sea ice than the mean. Global Cooling!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IS THAT LIKE the :eye wall" of bonnie
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1128
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The MJO is going negative for at least 2 weeks. Going to have to be a rogue system out there to look for development most likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is why you are under a tropical storm warning

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1204. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:
I don't think it's a good picnic day in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale today. Many people will be surprised at the strength of even of a tropical storm. Maybe a good wake up call.


Hopefully have people to get out the Hurricane Supplies in prep for an active season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1202. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:


Levi was on early this morning. Finally went to bed after the 0200 update.
Thank you WW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Saw some gusts over 40 with that squall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txag91met:

Yes, this storm is a small system...but later on we could get a much, much bigger system similar to Alex again, and all this wish casters would wish that wouldn't happen.


I would not be surprise if a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S this August or September....
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Mornin Ross. I guess food chasers in Del Ray is out of the question now...


Doesn't mean I cant get some grilled wings and afternoon brew lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1198. myway
Quoting dolphingalrules:
In West Broward Cty...No wind at all..It is raining..like a normal afternoon...where is Cantore? I also know that Good Morning's weatheman is on South Beach..


Tootsies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1247 - 1197

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
75 °F
Light Rain