Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Does anybody know of any webcams with close-ups of palm trees. This seems to be the best way to get an idea of how windy it is.
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Bonnie looks more like some Floridian afternoon thunderstorms this morning.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Nice rain probably 2 inches gust up-to 30mph and that about all she wrote for North Miami. I don't think this is even a depression but close.


Sorry...it's a tropical storm.
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I just got some gusts exceeding 35 knots. Right now just have some twigs and a bunch of leaves on the ground, nothing in terms of "damage". However the worst of Bonnie still awaits in the NE quadrant.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
We should be happy, Bonnie is small and not very strong. Should not have a big impact on the Oil spill, it is Friday, things are good. By Sunday morning Bonnie should make landfall for the last time as a TD or TS.


Maybe it will agitate the dispersants and make the worlds largest bubble bath in the N GOM.
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very happy bonnie is a nice small storm...


and it is very civil for this blog... guess most of the teens were up all night and now sleeping in! LOL
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1287. divdog
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Apparently her point is....you just don't get it!!
dont get what
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OMG - Hollywood, South Broward Count, FL area - raining with less than TS force winds, maybe 35 at best. I bet if I went outside I would be wet. According to radar not much coming after this band of rain passes through. Maybe some little showers. I heard thunder once or twice this morning. I am glad it turned out this way.
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Shear currently is about nonexistant in the Caribbean and spawn of Bonnie appears to be headed in that direction.
Have had all the blob drama I can take this morning. Have a great day everyone.
Signing off.
shearmap
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Quoting divdog:
and your point is
Apparently her point is....you just don't get it!!
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1283. IKE
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 11 sec ago
Heavy Rain
81 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 30 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 2.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 800 ft
Overcast 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


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Quoting FLdewey:


Full face motorcycle helmet?

Little league knee pads?

LOL... still laughing about the home made bomb suit.
LMAO!
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We should be happy, Bonnie is small and not very strong. Should not have a big impact on the Oil spill, it is Friday, things are good. By Sunday morning Bonnie should make landfall for the last time as a TD or TS.
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Bob, thanks for the link. glad to see you on here.

Hi aqua and all of you that are just now posting...

hubby just called he is in central Plantation on Broward Blvd and they are getting heavy rain.... rain in most locations in Broward now.
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Quoting vortextrance:
Looked around and haven't been able to find west winds. Has anyone else found them? I think the coc is open.


Recon found a closed (barely) CoC with a couple of weak westerly flags. Another HH is on the way.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Definitely! I would say drink one for me but obviously that won't be happening. Maybe a virgin daquiri or a Shirley Temple???


shirley temple for sure and maybe some of those wings :)
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1276. divdog
Quoting Chicklit:


Excuse me, but it's a Cape Verde wave in 29-30 degree waters 80 miles outside of Miami headed toward the oil spill.
and your point is
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Quoting yonzabam:
I've been looking at a Miami webcam positioned at a restaurant with dozens of tables and chairs outside on the sidewalk. How strong does the wind have to be to blow a chair over?


I could blow a chair over.
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Downtown Miami web cam; it should update every second.



South Beach webcam; also should update every second.



NWS MIAMI WFO web cam; as well updates every second.



*keep in mind you have to referesh the page to see the updates.
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Quoting oracle28:
Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph.

A lot of hype for what would be an average thunderstorm in the Southern Plains.


Excuse me, but it's a Cape Verde wave in 29-30 degree waters with a center of circulation somewhere off the coast of south Florida. We have a lot of bad memories of these scenarios and are very glad that Bonnie is still just a tropical storm.
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1272. wxhatt
Well Stephanie Abrams just did a live shot from Key West, and the sun was out! Looks like the storm is going further north than originally expected.
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Quoting StormW:


Upper level winds are forecast to be marginal at best, at the moment. Lack of an upper level anticyclone for one.


What is your forecast percentage Bonnie might reach hurricane strength in the GOM?
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1270. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:
This has got to be the eatenest weatherblog on the planet!.

food-caster!!
Good morning Aquak, A little present for you from 1984...Link.
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Quoting hydrus:
Gave birth..lol

lol
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Nice rain probably 2 inches gust up-to 30mph and that about all she wrote for North Miami. I don't think this is even a depression but close.
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1267. divdog
Quoting DestinJeff:
TS Bonnie gets no respect. None, I tell ya.
and rightly so
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I've been looking at a Miami webcam positioned at a restaurant with dozens of tables and chairs outside on the sidewalk. How strong does the wind have to be to blow a chair over?
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Quoting bocahurricane:


My daughter and I are having a lazy day in the house. TS Bonnie is a good excuse for a 8 1/2 month pregnant stay at home mom to have a much needed lazy day :)


Definitely! I would say drink one for me but obviously that won't be happening. Maybe a virgin daquiri or a Shirley Temple???
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Could be our next invest.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTING IN 5-15 KT WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 85W-90W.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF E CUBA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph.

A lot of hype for what would be an average thunderstorm in the Southern Plains.
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Quoting weatherguy03:
The actually center, although very ill-defined at the moment, is east of Key Largo. You can see the ill-defined swirl South of the heavy convection. The center is not near Miami.


Hi Bob, good to se you here this morning. thanks for the link.
we
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
It would appear that the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie will make landfall in Southern Miami Dade County within the next hour or two. Tropical storm force winds and weather coming ashore now into Broward and Miami Dade counties.


CCHS......Ok.. I guess it is still a crapshoot as to whar this little storm could do, change track east or west once it gets into the GOM? Or are they fairly certain now of another landfall about NOLA.. which is a more eastern shift than last night?? Your opinion?
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Quoting hydrus:
LOL! Will you guys stop talking about food? This has got to be the eatenest weatherblog on the planet!...Now I want grilled wings and onion rings. P.S. And it is only 8;30 here..Sheesh.


Sorry! I know, I found after posting and reading it again I was making myself hungry. Go figure...
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Quoting FLdewey:


Full face motorcycle helmet?

Little league knee pads?

LOL... still laughing about the home made bomb suit.


I laughed so hard I cried watching that.
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1256. angiest
Quoting tropicfreak:
Should land affect the strength of Bonnie?


Yes, it could cause it to weaken or strengthen (think Fay)... :)
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Looks like hurakat was on the money with Bonnie.. IT nailed the forecast. Congrats to you hurakat if your out there.


It was ranting yesterday that Bonnie would never become a TS, so i am not sure what "nailed it" means in this instance???
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is that the most power shoewer sefl will see from bonnie?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
1253. hydrus
Quoting jeebsa:
Looks like Bonnie gave birth over P.R.
Any chance of development there?
Possible copy cat.
Gave birth..lol
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Quoting StormW:


Upper level winds are forecast to be marginal at best, at the moment. Lack of an upper level anticyclone for one.


At the moment...I keep watching in anticipation about what happens if it crosses land quickly, enters the gulf, and then begins to find more favorable upper level winds.

Of course, it could just drink a gallon of Red Bull??

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So far, Bonnie reminds me of Ernesto in 2006.
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1249. ph34683
Quoting StormW:


It's still fairly strong, just looks to be positioning differently:

WV LOOP


Hi Storm! Thanks for all your great information!!
Can you help me out? Looking at the wv loop you posted, it looks like Bonnie is headed right for us (Pinellas County). Is something going to turn it more west? Or are we in for a drenching too?
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1248. aquak9
This has got to be the eatenest weatherblog on the planet!.

food-caster!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


You should have watched the Barometer Bob show last night. While yes it does appear a downward MJO will take hold of most of the Atlantic we must note a few things

1) most of the heat is still bundled in the Atlantic thanks to those warm Sea Surface Temperatures. The GFS has been predicting a downward motion for two months and it never materialized because the upward MJO went back around to our basin. While we will go into a downward motion it won't be as strong as the GFS is indicating.

2) MJO will still be upward over Africa, which means enhanced moisture over Africa that will cause less dust thanks to wetter sand and more powerful tropical waves emerging off Africa.

3) MJO isn't a decided in formation of a tropical cyclone. It helps a lot, but isn't the key ingredient to have.


Nice post! Thanks for the detailed explanation...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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