Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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1347. jeebsa
Nice downpour here in Palm City from Bonnie. I can almost taste the salt water.
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1346. wxhatt
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
WATCH THIS WAVE TO.


I know...

could it be another invest coming?
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1345. russh46
Here in South Lakeland with all of the sunshine cooking up all this moisture we could have a good round of boomers later today.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Virginia key below (I was there a couple days ago, lol).

Updates every minute I believe.
BR


Clouds and rain.... that is the worst your going to see. Is that the sun peaking out towards the east? You may be able to do a beach picnic lunch by noon.
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"The worst" of Bonnie at this time is like "the worst" of an afternoon squall. We're not saying it won't blow up *cough* in the gulf *cough* and be everything *cough* you hope for.

Exactly. We get squall lines from cold fronts that are much more fierce than this, and they don't even warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
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Quoting Kristina40:
I fail to see how people "don't get" Chiklits point. A TS sitting in very warm water and about to run straight through the largest oil slick in US history on her way to NOLA is NOT THE SAME as a MidWest thunderstorm. Is that clear enough?

You Go Girlfriends!!!
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1341. divdog
Quoting oracle28:
"Apparently her point is....you just don't get it!!"

That's the point of asking her point, we don't get it.

I just hope it will churn up enough cooler water to weaknen storms later in the season, but it's probably too small and too fast to do so.
im with ya
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Quoting Kristina40:
I fail to see how people "don't get" Chiklits point. A TS sitting in very warm water and about to run straight through the largest oil slick in US history on her way to NOLA is NOT THE SAME as a MidWest thunderstorm. Is that clear enough?
Thank you for hitting the nail on the head. But it doesn't matter...some still won't get it. Have a great day!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
SirBud warning just issued on the blog!


That is BudSir!
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I beg to differ on the center being down by the keys.


Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I guess Hurrikat (stormtop) was right all along.. She don't owe me a big apology as I wanted last night, I owe her one.. wow, Bonnie did not strengthen at all and now shear has really increased as the ULL has slowed down to the west. I'm shocked..
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1335. wxhatt
Quoting DestinJeff:


Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

Is that thing on reel-to-reel???


LOL
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WSVN skyforce; live imagery.

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Thanks Miamihurricanes.
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that "stuff" that is trailing Bonnie look like it could get interesting???????? Come on Colin!!!!
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Quoting txag91met:
I think the worst is in the western quad.
Recon found the worse of the system in the NE quadrant.
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I fail to see how people "don't get" Chiklits point. A TS sitting in very warm water and about to run straight through the largest oil slick in US history on her way to NOLA is NOT THE SAME as a MidWest thunderstorm. Is that clear enough?
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Quoting txag91met:
I think the worst is in the western quad.

then i'm behind...last i heard it was ne quad.
anyway, have a great day everyone.
and i did see the guy in his tighty whities and a shower curtain in that webcam. thought that may be oz's relaxed-wear for ts's.
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Quoting wxhatt:


I know, I'm concerned that Bonnie is clearing the way for Clyde!


I wish they would have named the C storm Clyde after using Bonnie. They need to lighten up and do that some year. Could also use names of infamous people like Manson, Lohan, Obama, etc.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Recon found a closed (barely) CoC with a couple of weak westerly flags. Another HH is on the way.


Thanks, I didn't see that. It shouldn't be hard to find west winds in the keys right now but they aren't there. She is hanging on by a thread. I guess its possible traversing the glades could help her tighten up a bit.
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1322. divdog
Quoting Chicklit:

That was my point about Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe a little worse than people think.
kinda of a stretch. sound like a miami thunderstorm to me
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1321. leo305
Quoting txag91met:
I think the worst is in the western quad.


no, the western side is weaker, but has the most rainfall
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Our first squall is heading here in Boca Raton and this is looking south into Broward county.
http://lakebocacam.com/
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For any of you hurricane junkies on here that have an iphone. I just got a great app for hurricanes. It shows the TWO, radar, cone of doom, track and has archives for years past. I have nothing to do with this app just thought I would share. Just do a search for hurricane at the apple app store it was 3.99. Another tool for us to use when the power/internet is out during a storm.

Oh and it works with ios4 and I've had no problem with it on my iphone 4
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Good morning all. Had a nice little rain shower in north Port St. Lucie about 30 minutes ago. Sun came out, now clouding back up again. Hope we get some more rain...yard could use it. Of course, then it just grows faster and needs to be mowed more often!!! Oh, well. How's everybody else doing in South FL?
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Does anybody know of any webcams with close-ups of palm trees. This seems to be the best way to get an idea of how windy it is.
Virginia key below (I was there a couple days ago, lol).

Updates every minute I believe.

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Quoting GetReal:


Take my wife, Bonnie, PLEASE!!!


This is funny and wack!
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"Apparently her point is....you just don't get it!!"

That's the point of asking her point, we don't get it.

I just hope it will churn up enough cooler water to weaknen storms later in the season, but it's probably too small and too fast to do so.
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1314. angiest
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
WHAT IS THIS GUYS.


Dunno, maybe it is what CMC (and to a lesser extent ECMWF) have been showing trailing Bonnie by a couple of days in the GOM.
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1313. divdog
Quoting txag91met:
Looks like recon found 1004.8 mb pressure and 40 mph surface winds...is that what everyone else got?
that would quite a drop in pressure if correct. where did u get the pressure reading
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Quoting wxhatt:


I know, I'm concerned that Bonnie is clearing the way for Clyde!
Colin
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Quoting wxhatt:


I know, I'm concerned that Bonnie is clearing the way for Clyde!

oh man...the caribbean in hot, hot, hot!
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Quoting Chicklit:

That was my point about Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe a little worse than people think.
I think the worst is in the western quad.
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Quoting StormHype:


Maybe it will agitate the dispersants and make the worlds largest bubble bath in the N GOM.
i was just thinking the same thing... 90 million gallons of dispersant-laden oil is floating around directly under her path
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1307. leo305
Quoting Chicklit:

That was my point about Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe a little worse than people think.


considering the center cnotinues to move North east.. anyone north of it should expect some tropical storm force winds.
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1306. A4Guy
STORM: earlier you said the coc was over Key Largo...but it looks like it is coming ashore just south of Miami/Key Biscayne area. agree?
did I mis-interpret your post?

here in north/central broward - heaviest rains have moved in...not too much wind tho.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just got some gusts exceeding 35 knots. Right now just have some twigs and a bunch of leaves on the ground, nothing in terms of "damage". However the worst of Bonnie still awaits in the NE quadrant.

That was my point about Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe a little worse than people think.
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1304. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:
Shear currently is about nonexistant in the Caribbean and spawn of Bonnie appears to be headed in that direction.
Have had all the blob drama I can take this morning. Have a great day everyone.
Signing off.
shearmap


I know, I'm concerned that Bonnie is clearing the way for Clyde!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

F5

Clouds and rain.

Is that thing on reel-to-reel???
LOL, every web cam is live. However there isn't much in the way of change. LOL.
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Looks like recon found 1004.8 mb pressure and 40 mph surface winds...is that what everyone else got?
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1299. leo305
the strongest winds are still off shore... the strongest winds are on the north and north east side..
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
So far, Bonnie reminds me of Ernesto in 2006.


Great comparison in terms of development. Both developed in the face of shear and dry air. Ernesto was a lot more costly than Bonnie will be but both really surprised with their ability to fight through the hostile conditions. In fact I believe Ernesto formed in the Caribbean dead zone.
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Does anybody know of any webcams with close-ups of palm trees. This seems to be the best way to get an idea of how windy it is.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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