Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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I see a possible 99L comming looks like south of DR nice
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1396. leo305
Quoting Seflhurricane:
center appears to be just east of key largo,fl preparing to make landfall near extreme south MIami- Dade County


center is north east of key largo
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1395. Patrap
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Remember folks this time last year all we had was 1 TD. This season was have two name storms and a TD. There may not be 20 storms this season but there is still a good shot of storm totals in the lower to middle teens come seasons end.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
"we rarely get a severe storm with winds as high as 40mph.."

Because they're not "severe" until 58 mph.
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Heavy rain in western Broward right now. I'm basically at the intersection of I595 and the Sawgrass Expressway/I75.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
this is nothing !!!! our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than what bonnie has to offer i have yet to see winds above 20MPH , and where are the tropical storm force winds ???


We know, we know....how many have to post this same post re: afternoon thunderstorms have been stronger than what we are experiencing in SFL right now?
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1389. Patrap
A Florida Shoo-Shoo?

LOL
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Quoting Chicklit:
Where's recon? They will tell us where the center is...anyway, really gotta go. I do have a job and it ain't the weather (obviously!)...
center appears to be just east of key largo,fl preparing to make landfall near extreme south MIami- Dade County
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somethings tellls me at 2pm we'll see the worst and by worst i mean 20 to 30mph gust to abotu40 and moderate rain oh an yes up to this piont fay was worse
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1058
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Does anybody know of any webcams with close-ups of palm trees. This seems to be the best way to get an idea of how windy it is.


This one has lots of palm trees in it. I'm more interested in the tables, though. Let me know if you see one blow over.

Link
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Where's recon? They will tell us where the center is...anyway, really gotta go. I do have a job and it ain't the weather (obviously!)...
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Quoting IKE:
This is headed for a downgrade real soon...



It does appear to be downgradeable, but what's the story with what's happening NW of PR? It seems bigger than Bonnie.
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this is nothing !!!! our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than what bonnie has to offer i have yet to see winds above 20MPH , and where are the tropical storm force winds ???
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never mind... I looked at closer...
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1375. divdog
Quoting IKE:
This is headed for a downgrade real soon...

try to convince the doomsayers of that. I agree with you IKE this thing looks like crap
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That next wave could be 99L... It is cetainly in better conditions that Bonnie was at that geographic point.. Maybe 99L by tomorrow???
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
NEW WAVE TO WATCH
Umm...No. You do still understand that Bonnie is going into the Gulf of Mexico. That wave is just an upper low.
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1370. IKE
This is headed for a downgrade real soon...

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1369. Patrap
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1368. A4Guy
rain has basically ended in north/central broward....doesn't look to be much behind what just came through. we had almost no wind....Fay was much worse - in terms of some wind, but mostly rain. she was slow moving, and we had squalls for days with copius amounts of rain.
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1367. Patrap
Quoting Chicklit:
Bastardi is sounding like a whiney blogger on WU.


Hes a big Lurker.
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1365. shfr173
Dr Storm could you explain MJO?
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1364. 7544
boonie on the move almost done

watching the next wave behind her
could this become 99l ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
Quoting reedzone:
I guess Hurrikat (stormtop) was right all along.. She don't owe me a big apology as I wanted last night, I owe her one.. wow, Bonnie did not strengthen at all and now shear has really increased as the ULL has slowed down to the west. I'm shocked..


Yup. I think a lot of hypsters put him on ignore but he ended up being dead nuts right. Maybe someone who knows what they are talking about.
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Bastardi is sounding like a whiney blogger on WU.
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1359. divdog
Quoting Chicklit:

You Go Girlfriends!!!
i thought you had left oh well
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Quoting Kristina40:
I'm off to work, it'll be interesting to see where Bonnie is when I get home this evening. Have a great day all.

Yeah, me too before I get in too much trouble.
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1356. leo305
Quoting oracle28:
"The worst" of Bonnie at this time is like "the worst" of an afternoon squall. We're not saying it won't blow up *cough* in the gulf *cough* and be everything *cough* you hope for.

Exactly. We get squall lines from cold fronts that are much more fierce than this, and they don't even warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.


we rarely get a severe storm with winds as high as 40mph..
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Here's JB this morn.


FRIDAY 8 A.M.
WHY LIE?

Okay, here is the recon position.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010

A. 23/11:09:10Z

B. 24 deg 49 min N 079 deg 20 min W


That is 24.8 north, and 79.2 west.

Why locate it at 24.7 and 79.8 then 51 minutes later? Why lie to the public? What else can it be except you trying to keep adjusting the track to what you are trying to forecast?

What's more, you can see it on the radar.

This is nonsense. Locating this 40 miles south of west of where it is?

And you want me to march like a sheep in lockstep with you. Why when you can't even report the correct initial position?

So why are you saying it is 40 miles west of where it is?

So your error from yesterday, which took it over Key West is less?

You want to know why I am such a skeptic on NOAA, from adjusted temps to this, you can see right here.

Ciao for now.
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1351. divdog
Quoting oracle28:
"The worst" of Bonnie at this time is like "the worst" of an afternoon squall. We're not saying it won't blow up *cough* in the gulf *cough* and be everything *cough* you hope for.

Exactly. We get squall lines from cold fronts that are much more fierce than this, and they don't even warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
they cant help overreacting
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I'm off to work, it'll be interesting to see where Bonnie is when I get home this evening. Have a great day all.
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1347. jeebsa
Nice downpour here in Palm City from Bonnie. I can almost taste the salt water.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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