Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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2010 has been a bust so far for the United States. Let's hope it stays that way. :)

I just don't see how we get to 20+ storms.
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Fairly quiet/calm (no rain yet) here on the coast of SW FL right now, but I'm sure that will change in the next few hours.
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1444. divdog
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Worth re-posting.
JB this morn.

FRIDAY 8 A.M.
WHY LIE?

Okay, here is the recon position.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010

A. 23/11:09:10Z

B. 24 deg 49 min N 079 deg 20 min W


That is 24.8 north, and 79.2 west.

Why locate it at 24.7 and 79.8 then 51 minutes later? Why lie to the public? What else can it be except you trying to keep adjusting the track to what you are trying to forecast?

What's more, you can see it on the radar.

This is nonsense. Locating this 40 miles south of west of where it is?

And you want me to march like a sheep in lockstep with you. Why when you can't even report the correct initial position?

So why are you saying it is 40 miles west of where it is?

So your error from yesterday, which took it over Key West is less?

You want to know why I am such a skeptic on NOAA, from adjusted temps to this, you can see right here.

Ciao for now.
more JB hot air
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That was a Tropical Storm ?????

I've driven through thunderstorms worse than this !!
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So if the strong winds (30-40 mph) are a bit offshore in the NE quadrant, that means that in an hour or two the Miami area will be having mostly cloudy/cloudy conditions with near tropical storm force winds?
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In the famous words of Danny Zuko:

"What a hunk of junk." Morning everyone.
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1439. Patrap
Floridiocy-casting ?
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Bonnie has less convection than a FL summer pop-up tstorm.

So where's our next prospect so we can start hyping it up? Is the CMC spining up a batch of doom for us?
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looks like Miami dade county will take the worst of bonnie
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1434. Patrap
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Worth re-posting.
JB this morn.

FRIDAY 8 A.M.
WHY LIE?

Okay, here is the recon position.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010

A. 23/11:09:10Z

B. 24 deg 49 min N 079 deg 20 min W


That is 24.8 north, and 79.2 west.

Why locate it at 24.7 and 79.8 then 51 minutes later? Why lie to the public? What else can it be except you trying to keep adjusting the track to what you are trying to forecast?

What's more, you can see it on the radar.

This is nonsense. Locating this 40 miles south of west of where it is?

And you want me to march like a sheep in lockstep with you. Why when you can't even report the correct initial position?

So why are you saying it is 40 miles west of where it is?

So your error from yesterday, which took it over Key West is less?

You want to know why I am such a skeptic on NOAA, from adjusted temps to this, you can see right here.

Ciao for now.
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1432. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bonnie looks like shiiiiiiiii.
what happened with your forecast from last night. may want to refrain from being so bold with predictions that make you look bad.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Hurrikat was exactly right, and should be given credit for that. Hurrikat is probably one of the better bloggers here.


I nailed the track, just not the intensity.. Things can happen in a blink of an eye, so I'm still watching TS Bonnie, I believe it will remain TS status by 11 a.m. do to recon finding winds over TS force.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting Seflhurricane:
this is nothing !!!! our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than what bonnie has to offer i have yet to see winds above 20MPH , and where are the tropical storm force winds ???




right around the center and in the bands that should form later today with the heating of the day!!!
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were on the mainland r the strongest winds?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1052
I tried telling people last night that this was a non-event. Meanwhile, there is a state of emergency in Louisiana.
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Quoting Chicklit:

That was my point about Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. Maybe a little worse than people think.

I've been in Ft. Lauderdale for 40 years.
These kind of storms just make everybody more complacent.
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1426. ssmate
Quoting reedzone:
I guess Hurrikat (stormtop) was right all along.. She don't owe me a big apology as I wanted last night, I owe her one.. wow, Bonnie did not strengthen at all and now shear has really increased as the ULL has slowed down to the west. I'm shocked..
Well if you do apologize do it in CAPS and in a real annoying way.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A MADIS station in Key Biscayne is reporting winds of 33mph and gusts of 36mph.
hey miami by the way you are so far correct looks like it will make landfall in South/central Miami-dade county
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Looks cute, Ike.
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Hurrikat was exactly right, and should be given credit for that. Hurrikat is probably one of the better bloggers here.
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1421. IKE
I'm calling it...remnant low at 11 EDST....if I'm wrong crow me....medium-rare w/A1 sauce...steak fries....big glass of ice-cold Coca-Cola.

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Radar indicates the center will soon move over Biscayne Bay and make landfall in the area of Kendall.
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GOMEX feature http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

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Quoting Patrap:
The GOM ULL looks better..than the TS


Yeah patrap, stormtop nailed this one,very shocked, thought the ULL would continue a fast pace but oh well, this is a good thing. I was right on with the first landfall though, south of Miami Beach
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1415. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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1414. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:
Remember folks this time last year all we had was 1 TD. This season was have two name storms and a TD. There may not be 20 storms this season but there is still a good shot of storm totals in the lower to middle teens come seasons end.
You are right.Mr. Conando.
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Quoting newportrinative:


We know, we know....how many have to post this same post re: afternoon thunderstorms have been stronger than what we are experiencing in SFL right now?
did not read the last post sorry !!! i am the first one who complains about people putting out the same old posts
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A MADIS station in Key Biscayne is reporting winds of 33mph and gusts of 36mph.
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Post 1356 "we rarely get a severe storm with winds as high as 40mph.."

Same here, I've lived in Florida for my entire life and have been under many (probably 150) severe thunderstorm warnings. Yet, I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen a thunderstorm with gusts of 58 mph or greater at my exact location.
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1409. IKE
Quoting divdog:
try to convince the doomsayers of that. I agree with you IKE this thing looks like crap


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Quoting divdog:
try to convince the doomsayers of that. I agree with you IKE this thing looks like crap


Yup, this even makes 2007 TS Barry look like like a real storm
Link
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1407. leo305
Quoting Seflhurricane:
after this moderate rainband its over people , weather should begin to dramatically improve i do not see anything else on long range radars :):) This is a reminder of things yet to come next month and especially in october which is south florida's bad season


that rain band does NOT contain the highest winds.. you forget there's a tight center spinning towards the NW.. this isn't a line of thunderstorms.
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1406. jscs
Quoting leo305:


we rarely get a severe storm with winds as high as 40mph..


Wow. We get them in the lower Midwest weekly. Hop inside for an hour then hop back out.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's JB this morn.


FRIDAY 8 A.M.
WHY LIE?

Okay, here is the recon position.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010

A. 23/11:09:10Z

B. 24 deg 49 min N 079 deg 20 min W


That is 24.8 north, and 79.2 west.

Why locate it at 24.7 and 79.8 then 51 minutes later? Why lie to the public? What else can it be except you trying to keep adjusting the track to what you are trying to forecast?

What's more, you can see it on the radar.

This is nonsense. Locating this 40 miles south of west of where it is?

And you want me to march like a sheep in lockstep with you. Why when you can't even report the correct initial position?

So why are you saying it is 40 miles west of where it is?

So your error from yesterday, which took it over Key West is less?

You want to know why I am such a skeptic on NOAA, from adjusted temps to this, you can see right here.

Ciao for now.


Whether you agree with it or not, it's unfortunately true. Take 90L from 2009 an example, it had everything, ever ingredient of a TS, but because the NHC had a yellow code on it for too long saying it wont form, they kept it a non-tropical system when the system was clearly detached from the front, had deep convection, and a LLC.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Bonnie looks like she is being sheared apart. The main body of convection was just pulled away from it's surface circ. My thinking is that the upper lvl feature in the GOMEX will (and is) taking on more tropical features and may be our next player.
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1402. Patrap
The GOM ULL looks better..than the TS
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after this moderate rainband its over people , weather should begin to dramatically improve i do not see anything else on long range radars :):) This is a reminder of things yet to come next month and especially in october which is south florida's bad season
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HAS BONNIE MADE LANDFALL YET? Just asking. Something like 90% of her convection is over South Florida.
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1398. myway
Looks like it is clearing here in north east Miami Dade. Little windy however nothing more than the average afternoon storm in the summer. I am glad that it never reched the hyped status that some were spewing.
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I see a possible 99L comming looks like south of DR nice
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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