Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
The center of the convective blob is essentially not moving, but the convection itself has moved over the center. It's tightening up a bit and firing more convection over the last hour.

However, the HH is having problems nailing a center fix. I think the current LLC may be history. Unless the blob can drop something down to the surface, we appear to be in open wave territory. They may yet find something to the north of where they have been looking.


Looking at RECON obs over the last 3-4 hours it appears to be an open circulation. I'm surprised the deep convection has persisted this long without the help of any decent upper divergence or vorticity advection.
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Animation of RGB satellite animations suggests an even further elongation and distortion of the overall circulation.

No west winds to speak of, either.
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being squeezed like a grape.
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The center of the convective blob is essentially not moving, but the convection itself has moved over the center. It's tightening up a bit and firing more convection over the last hour.

However, the HH is having problems nailing a center fix. I think the current LLC may be history. Unless the blob can drop something down to the surface, we appear to be in open wave territory. They may yet find something to the north of where they have been looking.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
Quoting 1celia70:
weather is crazy ...the ULL looks huge...and with all this moisture on all sides of the gulf...you would think some of it would train into it... any chance low pressure would work it's way down to the surface?


No it's just a ULL in the 200-300mb levels. No threat of tropical development.
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Quoting HellaGoose:
Is anybody else getting concerned about the area north of Hispanola? It is looking quite healthy this morning...in some ways more impressive than Bonnie.


I've been watching this area for the last 2 days...the environment is much better for that area, more upper ridging aloft and decreasing shear. The only thing lacking is a surface feature, it's mainly just the moisture plume from Bonnie's circulation interacting with some divergence aloft and part of a remnant wave that passed through the islands 36 hours ago.
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Looking more like a FLL/WPB landfall.
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weather is crazy ...the ULL looks huge...and with all this moisture on all sides of the gulf...you would think some of it would train into it... any chance low pressure would work it's way down to the surface?
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Is anybody else getting concerned about the area north of Hispanola? It is looking quite healthy this morning...in some ways more impressive than Bonnie.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


that spin is in the middlevels right?


Yes the spin on IR imagery is in the mid levels...the surface circulation is extremely ill-defined and may not even be closed.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Close to 0%. She's as decoupled as a system can be and is very close to degenerating into an open wave.


that spin is in the middlevels right?
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Quoting chrisdscane:
any1 think she strenthen before landfall?


Close to 0%. She's as decoupled as a system can be and is very close to degenerating into an open wave.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
well i think im going to call it a night, thanks for all the info!


Night texwarhawk!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. And with that I'm going to bed. Night all. :)


Night homelesswanderer :) Get some sleep!
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633. IKE
Not much left of Bonnie...if there ever was.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
any1 think she strenthen before landfall?
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you know invest98 making landfall into mexico looks more impressive....then miss b.
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all to the north looks to be a wet day here

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Quoting atmosweather:


Yeah don't let those napkins fly off the table


Lol. And with that I'm going to bed. Night all. :)
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628. IKE
625/626.....lol!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
well i think im going to call it a night, thanks for all the info!
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Quoting IKE:
Batten down the hatches Miami, she's moving in...



Yeah don't let those napkins fly off the table
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Quoting IKE:
Batten down the hatches Miami, she's moving in...



Well ladies and gents, smoke if you got em, and I got em.
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Quoting 1celia70:
miami offical ..alvarez ...said trash pickup will be on a normal schedule...


Thank goodness. Could you imagine if we had to wait until Tuesday? Oh, the humanity of it all. Cats and dogs living together...lol
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623. IKE
Batten down the hatches Miami, she's moving in...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
SHIPS remains very bullish on Bonnie.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Exactly as we have all been thinking all night.


That would be good for all involved. :)
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620. IKE
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 59 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 2600 ft
Scattered Clouds 11000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Well. it's 5am here in South Dade, and not even a breeze.
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Seems like the ULL is almost staionary now, nothing compaired to this time yesterday
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miami offical ..alvarez ...said trash pickup will be on a normal schedule...
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Quoting IKE:
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH.


Exactly as we have all been thinking all night.
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We posted it almost simultaneously, Ike. :)
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH
. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 24.1N 78.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.2N 84.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 86.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 28.8N 89.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
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613. IKE
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think they chose such a large area as a precautionary measure.

Similar to Frances in 1998, when a tropical storm watch was issued from Sargent, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana, a distance probably twice as large as the current one, on the initial advisory.


Yeah I know. Kind of confusing when in their marine discussion says the ridge will be there into next week.
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RECON going back through from SE to NW for another pass.
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Based upon the current wind field and projected path, all Broward and Miami Dade will likely see Tropical Storm conditions during the late morning into early evening hours as I had been forecasting.
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seems the LLC is south of the forecast point for 8am??? if it really is at 24.1N 78.6W... probably just a wobble- doesnt really matter though, everything is to the north of the LLC


(needed to refresh browser)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Great minds. Thats gonna have to be one heck of a push to erode that ridge to Fl.


I think they chose such a large area as a precautionary measure.

Similar to Frances in 1998, when a tropical storm watch was issued from Sargent, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana, a distance probably twice as large as the current one, on the initial advisory.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
anyone know the cord. for the last LLC fix?


24.1, 78.3
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
Quoting KoritheMan:
Track shifted east?



A little E shift after 48 hours in response to the trough in the northern Plains eroding the W-ern part of the ridge a little.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Track shifted east?



Yep
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Quoting atmosweather:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.


Lol. Great minds. Thats gonna have to be one heck of a push to erode that ridge to Fl.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
anyone know the cord. for the last LLC fix?


24.1N 78.3W
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Track shifted east?

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A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE MOVING FASTER TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
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anyone know the cord. for the last LLC fix?
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A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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