Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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I disagree ike.. the center is beginning to wrap around some rain bands.. and it should develop.. conditions are favorable for development for now..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting tkeith:
To TD?

mornin all here, Pat you been up all night?


Just got up.

Having the Portlight Rummage and Garage Sale here today.

A day early .
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Quoting tkeith:
I hope you're right...who knows maybe that Fla. trash mountain will finish it off...



ROFLMAO!!!
now don't you go m aking fun of our only pice of land that is above sea level!


really, I should have left for work 10 mins ago..

It does look like the bulk of the rain or the so called "center of the storm" is heading for SE Fla moreso than the Keys.... I guess the big blog is north of the storm?

So hope to get settled in at work before the rain comes.

I do hope our lawns at least get some rain from this!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
Quoting IKE:


I think the NHC will downgrade her on the 11 am EDST advisory, if for no other reason...over land.
To TD?
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Morning Pat, Ike, Storm, Weather456,tkeith
Quoting tkeith:
ahh, nice cup of coffee and a quiet blog.

and a weakening storm ta boot,
See what happens when you don't try to sleep all day...LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting tkeith:
I hope you're right...who knows maybe that Fla. trash mountain will finish it off...
To TD?

mornin all here, Pat you been up all night?
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Hoping the HH makes one more pass NE to SW ... still have 90 min on station according to the flight plan. They may just stumble onto something under that convection.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Note the CDO Expanding and the Banding on the Left side of the Envelope.
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3 ring Dvorak

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Quoting fallinstorms:
i don't think bonnie will even make it into the gulf.
I hope you're right...who knows maybe that Fla. trash mountain will finish it off...
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687. IKE
Quoting fallinstorms:
i don't think bonnie will even make it into the gulf.


I think the NHC will downgrade her on the 11 am EDST advisory, if for no other reason...over land.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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684. IKE
Fowey Rocks,FL.....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 F


Virgina Key,FL....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 12.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 18.1 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F


Ft Lauderdale, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 9 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
83 F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 16 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Rising)

Heat Index: 92 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Everything is BAU here in SE Florida...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
Well I better take a nap for a few hours...getting the station ready, wonder if we can squeeze a TS force gust out of any of this afternoon's rainbands LOL!

See you all later!
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Good morning --
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Looking at radar it doesn't seem like there is much rain associated with this system.

Am I wrong?
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679. IKE
Opa Locka, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 48 sec ago
Overcast
81 F
Overcast
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 7 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 87 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
Overcast 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
good morning,

I woke up not knowing what I would find. I did notice no big storms woke me up in the night. Just checked and no rain in the guage.

Nothing outside but warm humid muggy and breezy conditions but looks like the rain is on the way.

Reporting Live from the Ft Lauderdale area.
Gamma

now got to get to work.
I will be lurking as I can and will update if we get any rainstorms.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
The System Still E of Miami and closing..

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Quoting StormW:
Morning 456!

Have you noticed, or is it me...the FSU and PSU site has been pretty slow at updating the models?

Current GFS run is 00Z.

PSU


Have not use that website in a while.
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Current Conditions

Doral, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Overcast
80.8 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 3.6 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 9.3 mph

Pressure: 29.88 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 85 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
674. IKE
Looks like it will be touching land in about an hour.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
True that with an apparent south of Miami land fall and still the NW movement it looks like there wont be much to emerger in the gom. However this is very flat land (mostly swap) and storms have been known to actually intensify over this area.
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ahh, nice cup of coffee and a quiet blog.

and a weakening storm ta boot,
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.
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Quoting IKE:
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 32 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
Overcast 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


I knew I should have boarded up!! : )
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HH still finding 40 kt flight level (850mb) winds. This thing does not want to die.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
667. IKE
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 32 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
Overcast 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmosweather:


It's working fine for me...last image is 0915 UTC (515 AM EDT)


Even that is 45 minutes behind...
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Time to watch the Storm instead of Pixels..

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Quoting atmosweather:
RECON still finding more evidence that Bonnie is basically an open wave...3 low pressure minimums and still hardly a W-erly wind to be found.


They have found west winds but they are very weak. This is also supported by shortwave infrared imagery.
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663. IKE
Latest GFS doesn't show much in the GOM over Bonnie. Remnant low or wave.




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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RECON still finding more evidence that Bonnie is basically an open wave...3 low pressure minimums and still hardly a W-erly wind to be found.
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Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Storm Bonnie approaching Southern Florida
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Quoting StonedCrab:
I Wunder why the Rainbow Loop is 90 minutes behind?


It's working fine for me...last image is 0915 UTC (515 AM EDT)
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BTW HELLO PATRAP, STORMW, IKE and all the others in here that have been here (and taught me so much) over the past 5 yrs THANK YOU!!!
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I Wunder why the Rainbow Loop is 90 minutes behind?
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06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bonnie
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT33 KNHC 230850
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE MOVING FASTER TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Has ne1 noticed this season that situations with less that 20% chance seem to happen anyway? This being said I think that once Bonnie hits the loop current it will reach hurricane strength (not forecasting a monster) I'm just saying It seems that it has a lot better chance of reaching hurricane strength than what is given. Also i wouldnt be surprised to see the track shift a little (to a lot) more east
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning! Just dropping in to say hello for the moment. I'll field questions after my synopsis is published.


Good morning Storm!
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning! Just dropping in to say hello for the moment. I'll field questions after my synopsis is published.


Mornin' Storm!
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
The center of the convective blob is essentially not moving, but the convection itself has moved over the center. It's tightening up a bit and firing more convection over the last hour.

However, the HH is having problems nailing a center fix. I think the current LLC may be history. Unless the blob can drop something down to the surface, we appear to be in open wave territory. They may yet find something to the north of where they have been looking.


Looking at RECON obs over the last 3-4 hours it appears to be an open circulation. I'm surprised the deep convection has persisted this long without the help of any decent upper divergence or vorticity advection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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