Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Quoting Hurricanes12:



If this was a hurricane it'd be much different, but we're fine here with a minimal TS!


I was fine with it too except when I just took the dog for her morning walk and got caught in a downpour....time to dry off!!!
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
good morning everyone, Is this storm supposed to stay as small as it is?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning from Lantana. Got on my bicycle and took a couple of pics. Shot of the bridge over the Intracoastal taken a few minutes ago...

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

Here's another on the ocean side. News Channel 12 was up there too.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Definitely becoming better organized approaching the coast. Seems like some slight strengthening may be occurring right now to around 50 mph.


I disagree storms might be building, however, i believe it is moving too fast to intensify to 50 mph when it is possible that this isn't even a tropical storm anymore
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
OK, thought I might have to take my fruit-loops and go sit in the corner or sumthin.
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Good morning all from South Texas...what happened to our little Miss Bonnie?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Calm because an hour or so ago it didn't look very good - everyone went back to bed, LOL.

Noticed the last couple of days that this storm doesn't seem to like DMax.
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
Quoting DestinJeff:


Nope. Morning. Surprised so calm in here with Bonnie close to S FL



If this was a hurricane it'd be much different, but we're fine here with a minimal TS!
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
739. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Patrap or for that matter anyone know where to find info on what the letter and numbers mean on the radar vectors.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Can Ya'll tell me what the predictions are of Bonnie once she emerges into the GOM?
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Does anyone know how big Bonnie actually is?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Good morning everyone, I hope y'all are just busy and I didn't somehow make everyones iggy list last night....HEHEHE
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Definitely becoming better organized approaching the coast. Seems like some slight strengthening may be occurring right now to around 50 mph.


Thats a good bet cchs.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting CoopsWife:
Pat - re post 716

Wow - what a great group of kids. Daughter's group is mostly focused on their SAT scores and GPAs instead of a broader world view. Kudos to your local young adults!!


We take a Lil pride in being here..and it reflects in our youth big time.

Thanks to them...from you.

That means alot to them Im sure.

They are Big time Lurkers,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Definitely becoming better organized approaching the coast. Seems like some slight strengthening may be occurring right now to around 50 mph.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Pat - re post 716

Wow - what a great group of kids. Daughter's group is mostly focused on their SAT scores and GPAs instead of a broader world view. Kudos to your local young adults!!
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
Shes come round to 280 true seems as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Good Morning everyone,

Can someone tell me what happened to Bonnie when I was asleep and what is expected to happen now?
Thanks.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


looks decent there.




Its getting better all the time
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting DestinJeff:
Bonnie is a fighter, sho nuff.

A lot of stock was placed in that ULL to shear/pump dry air into her. And a lot of stock now is placed in the flow from the ULL to the sub-tropical ridge to shear her ... without the setup that allows for that, Bonnie will take advantage.

GOM full of surprises.



thats what I'm trying to say. mabee ill have crow 4 dinner 2maroow night or u all will have to eat it.
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A center or CoC is showing up in the VIL Mode

NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting StormW:


There wouldn't be anything at 200mb.


Right you are, thanks. Not with a storm of this strength. I can only keep so many variables in my head at one time :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting leo305:
49 mph wind gust reported at Exuma


There's a lotta Wind between the Gradients and folks are gonna have a surprise in Miami come Drive time.

Bunches
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
5-6 ring Dvorak



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
49 mph wind gust reported at Exuma
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753


From the Mouths of our Future to America's ears's

A message,

Houma students deliver Louisiana's message to rest of country

It%u2019s the middle of July and Vandebilt Catholic High School in Houma is locked tight, the students enjoying their summer vacation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
The Radar is Improving esp on the West side as she nears the Coast.

Seen this before.

Beau coup times.

That Gulf Stream is Invigorating the System..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
09z CIMSS wind products are out.

850, 700, 500 remain stacked. Nothing at 200 (not surprised with those high level southeasterly winds)

Lower level convergence has consolidated from its formerly very elongated self, but is weak (5) and east of upper level divergence (10).
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Tropical Storm Bonnie now moving over the infamous Gulf Stream. Lets see how much of an effect it has on a disorganized storm.

Should see the worst come into Broward and Miami Dade County this morning and early this afternoon.


It won't make much of a difference.
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Blog Update

Tropical Storm Bonnie approaching Southern Florida

Catch yall later
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98L Inland

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting Eagle101:
Pat...is there a list of items for sale online somewhere?

v/r

Jon


No.. but we have everything from Beds to Sofas to Coffee Pots to Art.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
709. IKE
Quoting leo305:
I disagree ike.. the center is beginning to wrap around some rain bands.. and it should develop.. conditions are favorable for development for now..


It will be on land very soon....within an hour.

Quoting tkeith:
To TD?


Probably.


Quoting seflagamma:



ROFLMAO!!!
now don't you go m aking fun of our only pice of land that is above sea level!


really, I should have left for work 10 mins ago..

It does look like the bulk of the rain or the so called "center of the storm" is heading for SE Fla moreso than the Keys.... I guess the big blog is north of the storm?

So hope to get settled in at work before the rain comes.

I do hope our lawns at least get some rain from this!


Wishcaster!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Pat...is there a list of items for sale online somewhere?

v/r

Jon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dang, I lingered here too long and now we are getting our first rain squall...

and I will be driving to work "running" late in it! YIKES!
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Tropical Storm Bonnie now moving over the infamous Gulf Stream. Lets see how much of an effect it has on a disorganized storm.

Should see the worst come into Broward and Miami Dade County this morning and early this afternoon.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
HAGD sefl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Pat, Senior Chief, Ike...

Wow…the WC-130 is still out there from last night…whew…those are some very long flights indeed…

Radar not looking very good…nothing on the south side…

v/r

Jon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it appears to be zipping right along now...

good morning everyone..

now I am leaving...will check in from work.
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Quoting seflagamma:



ROFLMAO!!!
now don't you go m aking fun of our only pice of land that is above sea level!


really, I should have left for work 10 mins ago..

It does look like the bulk of the rain or the so called "center of the storm" is heading for SE Fla moreso than the Keys.... I guess the big blog is north of the storm?

So hope to get settled in at work before the rain comes.

I do hope our lawns at least get some rain from this!


the blob isn't that far off to the north..

in fact it's wrapping around the LLC.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting tkeith:
Hey I'll give ya a call later today.


we will be here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting Patrap:


Just got up.

Having the Portlight Rummage and Garage Sale here today.
Hey I'll give ya a call later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I disagree ike.. the center is beginning to wrap around some rain bands.. and it should develop.. conditions are favorable for development for now..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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