Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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anyone has a link for live coverage
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this about says it all

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Bonnie Bonnie Bonnie...way to ruin my weekend. I am going to be on call now all weekend and will probably have to go in for prep work.
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Viz frames a coming..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting rossclick:
latest vortex message is about 145 miles from southern dade... give or take a few



really? Mhm that's weird..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Deerfield Beach here on the coast. Heavy rain, winds gusting in excees of 20-25.
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Bonnie is the lamest little TS Ive ever seen! We'll have to count on old day time heating for rain up in central Florida, People will be lucky to pick up 2 inches outta this thing with such a small amount of convection combined with the fast movement.



Weak Tropical cyclones are not known for their wind punch, but they usually at least have a crapload of heavy rain. Bonnie don't even have much rain, what a joke of a storm! This one won't last long on folks memories in Florida!
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Its been raining hard here in Oakland Park for about 20 minutes now. I see thunder and hear lightning....hmmmmm. Satellite has gone out twice...


Hey neighbor...I'm in Oakland Park as well in N. Andrews Gardens.
Already had a power surge, lights went out for a second . It's calm at the moment.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
doh.. my bad
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Well got a doctors appointment planned at 11:00 so unless they closed i'm going. In Hollywood so it wouldn't get worse driving north. Later all.
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Quoting ElConando:


If you see that deep blue in NE Dade, where I live, it shows 60mph winds and I assume and maybe a little above due to the arrow. But i'm not gonna worry about it just yet.

Btw it is at the 13 hour mark.


13 hours from 2am when the model was run. So that would be 3pm
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 961
786. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes12:
The National Hurricane Center said that Bonnie will make landfall during the late morning and early midday. --- This from meteorologist on WSVN.


Late. It's approaching Miami now......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting mikatnight:
Hmmm...according to the radar I should be getting wet right now, but it ain't rainin...

Its been raining hard here in Oakland Park for about 20 minutes now. I see thunder and hear lightning....hmmmmm. Satellite has gone out twice...
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My Bonnie lies over the ocean...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting WxLogic:


They are in KTS


If you see that deep blue in NE Dade, where I live, it shows 60mph winds and I assume and maybe a little above due to the arrow. But i'm not gonna worry about it just yet.

Btw it is at the 13 hour mark.
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Yeah, there's really nothing to indicate it is not a Tropical Storm at the moment.. All the latest satellite estimates:
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1005 hPa MSW = 46 kt
ADT: 1000 hPa 45 kt Scene: SHEAR
CIMSS AMSU: 1005 hPa 45 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
Indicate a Tropical Storm.
The satellite presentation has improved in the past 6 hours.
Recon found sustained surface winds of 35MPH nearly 115 miles north of the COC only an hour ago at around 6:20AM Eastern.. Recon has yet to approach the strongest part of the system yet, as it is making another run through the COC as we speak, but it will probably gather data within the next hour or so from that quadrant and we'll get a reading for its strongest wind speeds at that time..
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The National Hurricane Center said that Bonnie will make landfall during the late morning and early midday. --- This from meteorologist on WSVN.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Visually you can see why the storm isn't working there are no real low level rain bands the clouds look like they are stretched s.e. to n.w. If it was a well rounded storm they would be swirling inward towards the center vertical stacked. I'm probably explaining it wrong but if you have ever seen a true band you'd get my drift.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Here in Lake Worth / West Palm...A few squalls coming and going quickly. Overall, not a big deal, so far.
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Here comes the sun...
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Quoting ElConando:


What are those winds in KM or KTS?


They are in KTS
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Does anyone know if that is another wave behind Bonnie in the Caribbean or just a cluster of clouds?
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Looks like HH found the (a?) center, with a couple of weak westerly flags. It's about where you'd expect it to be from the radar Pat put up. Approx 24.8, 79.3.


can you post an image?
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...

Ohh little Bonnie... WRF has an interesting behavior for Bonnie.


What are those winds in KM or KTS?
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Hmmm...according to the radar I should be getting wet right now, but it ain't rainin...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html


this shows what would be a whole bunch of rain extending up to northern palm beach county but this doesn't show on radar
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 961
Looks like HH found the (a?) center, with a couple of weak westerly flags. It's about where you'd expect it to be from the radar Pat put up. Approx 24.8, 79.3.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
Quoting DestinJeff:


Nope. Morning. Surprised so calm in here with Bonnie close to S FL


Not much more wishcasting left to do so the large majority of the folk get bored.
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I wonder Julie Durda looks that great in person?
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03L/TS/B
MARK
24.1N/78.6W
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@mikatnight: beautiful pics!!!!! What an awesome display Mother Nature puts on!
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Good morning...

Ohh little Bonnie... WRF has an interesting behavior for Bonnie.
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NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Pat - were those 50 kt barbs I saw? hmm - picking up at least a bit...
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
Quoting leo305:


because miami is north of the center?


yes miami is north of center. If miami was due south of center then it would be getting west winds
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 961
759. IKE
Hollywood, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 20 sec ago

Scattered Clouds
83 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Rising)

Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 2600 ft
Scattered Clouds 10000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning to everyone just logging on. Been up through the night as promised. lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting Twinkster:


I disagree storms might be building, however, i believe it is moving too fast to intensify to 50 mph when it is possible that this isn't even a tropical storm anymore


18mph is not that fast. Wilma strengthened moving at 25mph up til landfall.
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heres a nice loop from sfwmd with forecast track overlay. i can post a pic but i can't get a loop to work - anybody know how thanks

Link
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Any talk of a Downgrade is crazy as the Winds are strong and the Synoptic appearance continues to improve.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
7:07am EST.....nice band of rain and wind coming thru Ft Lauderdale and had our first power surge.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
morning bloggers
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Quoting IKE:


I don't see any west winds....just updated....

Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 0 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
Overcast 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


because miami is north of the center?
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
751. leo305
11:07 AM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Twinkster:


I disagree storms might be building, however, i believe it is moving too fast to intensify to 50 mph when it is possible that this isn't even a tropical storm anymore


NHC: Looks like the center is coming into Florida as a tropical storm, the heavy rain and the gusts are going to be to the north all along south florida as the day goes on.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
750. Patrap
11:06 AM GMT on July 23, 2010
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
749. IKE
11:06 AM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Twinkster:


I disagree storms might be building, however, i believe it is moving too fast to intensify to 50 mph when it is possible that this isn't even a tropical storm anymore


I don't see any west winds....just updated....

Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 0 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 12000 ft
Overcast 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
748. WatchingThisOne
11:06 AM GMT on July 23, 2010
I may be getting into crow-eating territory here, but if current trends continue, I think the strongest convection may come ashore not too far south of Palm Beach. That could be bad because the storm will have more time over the Gulf Stream and would be headed for Lake O.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
747. newportrinative
11:05 AM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes12:



If this was a hurricane it'd be much different, but we're fine here with a minimal TS!


I was fine with it too except when I just took the dog for her morning walk and got caught in a downpour....time to dry off!!!
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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