Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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847. IKE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
morning esrthly and yes sefl
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Looks like it is going to be a wet morning, afternoon, and maybe evening here in Miami.

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Quoting SiestaCpl:


It is also a possibility that Bonnie will gain further strength over the Everglades as people must remember that South FL is not a chunk of land as Northers know it..there is a great deal of moisture and no land mass to cause drag. Our experience here with strengthening storms "over land" is routine...


FAY got stronger over land, as did Katrina, and some other systems.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
841. IKE
Strengthening system?

...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...
8:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 23
Location: 24.7°N 79.8°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 19 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE
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Morning WU.....

looks as if a lot of the precipitation from 98 is being separated to the south east of the storm and pushed back into the Carib..
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isn't the Center of Cir....se of that blog of storms?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a more defined low level circulation forming with the southern convection moving towards Southern Miami Dade County. Showers and storms with Bonnie have also been on the increase on approach to landfall indicating a strengthening system on approach. Seems like the Gulf Stream has had some effect on the system. Rather impressive to see this regain organization.


It is also a possibility that Bonnie will gain further strength over the Everglades as people must remember that South FL is not a chunk of land as Northers know it..there is a great deal of moisture and no land mass to cause drag. Our experience here with strengthening storms "over land" is routine...
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Right now in Royal Palm Beach, the first band of Bonnie is coming in, the wind is picking up from the west, i'm expecting the worst out of her.
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center is becoming visible on radar, still moving WNW/NW..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yea by about 5-10kts but that is about it...too much shear. Way too much and it will pick up speed as well. I hope when it hits here it is moving at a nice pace so we dont get 20inches of rain.



Even if it does slow down, you wouldn't get 20 inches! LOL

You might get 5 or 6 inches in south Florida if Bonnie slowed to a crawl, but this thing lacks so much in convection, it would have given Florida more rain if it had stayed a tropical wave, at least it had a lot of convective activity then! hahaha

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Quoting seflagamma:
Jed, I doubt any of us get much rain from this storm now...it is moving so quickly to the west. now when it gets into GOM.. no idea what it may do.


radar shows some heavy rain, and that heavy rain should stay over dade county northern keys, and portions of south broward for the duration of the morning.. which is enough for 2-4 inches if not more.. of rain, with some heavy gusts.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 11:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 79°20'W (24.8167N 79.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (115 km) to the ESE (106°) from Key Largo, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,499m (4,918ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 70° at 34kts (From the ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (88°) from the flight level center
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Not looking so bad.

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COC still on track..Convection still displaced
to North and NE. moving too fast to escape influence of ULL/ridge...still was a good idea to evacuate DWH spill boats... OH well, wait and watch as usual..
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Quoting mikatnight:


miami radar is becoming useless.. as it's loosing the data, indicating high winds possibly with that line.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Largest difference in flight level temp inside/outside of center fix. Slight increase in strength, but out of time, which is good.


I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 20 C / 1522 m
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Bonnie is the lamest little TS Ive ever seen! We'll have to count on old day time heating for rain up in central Florida, People will be lucky to pick up 2 inches outta this thing with such a small amount of convection combined with the fast movement.



Weak Tropical cyclones are not known for their wind punch, but they usually at least have a crapload of heavy rain. Bonnie don't even have much rain, what a joke of a storm! This one won't last long on folks memories in Florida!

you live in Central Florida and are not receiving Bonnie, I am sure it will rain alot in the areas that will get the storm.
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Jed, I doubt any of us get much rain from this storm now...it is moving so quickly to the west. now when it gets into GOM.. no idea what it may do.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
The center is SE of all of that
Quoting IKE:


Late. It's approaching Miami now......

The center is SE of all that convection---looks more organized on satellite.
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That wave south of DR is larger than our little Bonnie! :o)
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
Quoting mikatnight:


im just south of you in delray.. seems all clear for now
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Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a more defined low level circulation forming with the southern convection moving towards Southern Miami Dade County. Showers and storms with Bonnie have also been on the increase on approach to landfall indicating a strengthening system on approach. Seems like the Gulf Stream has had some effect on the system. Rather impressive to see this regain organization.
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They had reports all along the Keys and Dade & Broward counties last night on the news.

No one in the Keys were leaving, everyone was just carrying on their vacation.

In the "flood areas" of Dade and Broward folks were filling up sand bags just in case of heavy rains...

nothing out of normal on today...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
Between last two center fixes, Bonnie was traveling at an average of 24 mph on a heading of 308.

Edit: at that speed and heading, the CoC of Bonnie should make landfall in about 3 hours just south of Miami. Won't be much of an event.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1270
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Bonnie is the lamest little TS Ive ever seen! We'll have to count on old day time heating for rain up in central Florida, People will be lucky to pick up 2 inches outta this thing with such a small amount of convection combined with the fast movement.



Weak Tropical cyclones are not known for their wind punch, but they usually at least have a crapload of heavy rain. Bonnie don't even have much rain, what a joke of a storm! This one won't last long on folks memories in Florida!
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Back again from work this time. light rain on and off here in Broward County. I am about 12-15 miles due west of Ft Lauderdale now, in Weston...

Bonnie is going to arrive much earlier than forcasted yesterday, this may be over by mid afternoon without much rainfall at all.

Hi everyone.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
810. IKE



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good Morning. First time post long time lurker. I am pretty amazed that one of the models (I forgot which one) came pretty close on Monday to forecating this event for South Florida although the current track seems a little father north. Does not look like Bonnie will be much of a threat to the Gulf and might not survive after crossing over lots of land in Florida.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
bonnie will get stronger

Yea by about 5-10kts but that is about it...too much shear. Way too much and it will pick up speed as well. I hope when it hits here it is moving at a nice pace so we dont get 20inches of rain.
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Quoting ElConando:


If you see that deep blue in NE Dade, where I live, it shows 60mph winds and I assume and maybe a little above due to the arrow. But i'm not gonna worry about it just yet.

Btw it is at the 13 hour mark.


Remember... those are winds for 500MB not SFC.
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Quoting newportrinative:
How

Hey neighbor...I'm in Oakland Park as well in N. Andrews Gardens.
Already had a power surge, lights went out for a second . It's calm at the moment.

Howdy neighbor, I live in the twin lakes area just west of 95... calm also right now... should make for an interesting day and it sure beats the monotonous 90 degree days...
Happy Friday everyone!!
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Dropsonde showing 1008 at CoC. Down 1 mb from last fix.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1270
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 08:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 7:37:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°06'N 78°20'W (24.1N 78.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 92 miles (147 km) to the SW (223°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,497m (4,911ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 41kts (From the SE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:15:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the E (81°) from the flight level center
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some convection developing over the center on radar
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
anyone has a link for live coverage
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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