Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gator watch the image at 865 it increased twice once while making landfall over fla then again after final landfall over orleans sat images dont lie anyone can doctor printed text

Katrina almost looked worst than Bonnie at landfall? Thanks for the video. The southern tip of Florida is almost all swap land, flat as a board, so not your typical storm stopper.
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Got 2.75 inches of rain here in the Bahamas last night just east of coc no wind over 35 mph.
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Was here in N. Dade at time of Katrina, confusion is because it turned into a hurricane while it was on the broward/dade county line with one foot on land the other in the water.I was going to say something about wet foot dry foot policy but discretion is the better part of valor in this case.
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890. IKE
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 32 sec ago
Light Rain
81 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 20 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 6500 ft
Overcast 14000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft


Hollywood, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 11 sec ago
Light Rain
80 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)

Heat Index: 85 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Scattered Clouds 4500 ft
Scattered Clouds 10000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Can any expert confirm a spin at roughly 23N-24N and 66W? Is that an upper atmosphere spin?
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah, I honestly think tropical storms shouldn't be named, its media hype crap like this that turns people away from heeding warnings.

I say tropical cyclones don't deserve names till they reach hurricane strength...

I mean think about it... Does this little low pressure area that is tropical really deserve a name yet? LOL

Exceptions like Allison and some other tropical storms due deserve recognition due to extremely heavy rain. But most tropical storms don't last more then a couple weeks at most on folks memories in Florida.


Actually, tropical storms can quickly ramp up into hurricanes which is exactly why they need to be named......Waiting until it becomes a hurricane, closer to shore perhaps, would be disasterous.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE SYNOPSIS JULY 23, 2010 ISSUED 7:40 A.M.


Good Morning Storm,

Thank you for the comprehensive update!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah, I honestly think tropical storms shouldn't be named, its media hype crap like this that turns people away from heeding warnings.

I say tropical cyclones don't deserve names till they reach hurricane strength...

I mean think about it... Does this little low pressure area that is tropical really deserve a name yet? LOL

Exceptions like Allison and some other tropical storms due deserve recognition due to extremely heavy rain. But most tropical storms don't last more then a couple weeks at most on folks memories in Florida.


Please go present that to the NHC so I can LMAO!
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884. SLU
NOTICE THE TREND SO FAR

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The heavens opened up in Margate, FL about 10 minutes ago. Seems to have stopped for now.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Jed, I doubt any of us get much rain from this storm now...it is moving so quickly to the west. now when it gets into GOM.. no idea what it may do.



Yeah, I honestly think tropical storms shouldn't be named, its media hype crap like this that turns people away from heeding warnings.

I say tropical cyclones don't deserve names till they reach hurricane strength...

I mean think about it... Does this little low pressure area that is tropical really deserve a name yet? LOL

Exceptions like Allison and some other tropical storms due deserve recognition due to extremely heavy rain. But most tropical storms don't last more then a couple weeks at most on folks memories in Florida.
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Quoting StormW:


It's dat superfly caster!

Good morning!


Morning Senior Chief Caster
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gator watch the image at 865 it increased twice once while making landfall over fla then again after final landfall over orleans sat images dont lie anyone can doctor printed text
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Ft. Lauderdale Radar
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
Thanks Storm W!
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Quoting gator23:


You said it strenghthend over land it did not it weakened


Link


the winds went up via report once it made landfall.. winds wre only 50-60mph before the storm made land fall.. the other side after it made landfall had winds well in excess of 80mph..

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Good Morning Yall.
Well looks like a LA/MS storm. At least if we are gonna take another storm its a small, tropical storm. Ill enjoy the breeze for sure.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

see post 864 Keeper.
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Quoting leo305:
ugh..

yea.. KATRINA's winds before it made landfall were reported at strong TS, and then the winds went up there well into CAT 1, Jim was live, I remember the quote "I can't believe!How strong this thing is" when they wre all expecting a tropical storm at most.


You said it strenghthend over land it did not it weakened


Link

and you had hurricane warnings posted for you as well.
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Morning Aquak
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Quoting leo305:
ugh..

yea.. KATRINA's winds before it made landfall were reported at strong TS, and then the winds went up there well into CAT 1, Jim was live, I remember the quote "I can't believe!How strong this thing is" when they wre all expecting a tropical storm at most.


Hurricane Warning was issued 18 hours before landfall...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry but katrina did infact have a increase in intensity after landfall and thats a fact jack

it in fact did not. From the NHC

KATRINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING OVER MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN SOON OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...


you can read the text here. I know you wont, but you can

Link

jack
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ugh..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry but katrina did infact have a increase in intensity after landfall and thats a fact jack


yea.. KATRINA's winds before it made landfall were reported at strong TS, and then the winds went up there well into CAT 1, Jim was live, I remember the quote "I can't believe!How strong this thing is" when they wre all expecting a tropical storm at most.
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As per recon the strongest batch of winds are in the N and NE quadrant of Bonnie. So as she moves off towards the WNW at 19mph it looks like Broward and northern Miami-Dade will get the supposed "worse" of it.


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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning WU.....

looks as if a lot of the precipitation from 98 is being separated to the south east of the storm and pushed back into the Carib..


Im wandering if all of this convection could be what the CMC is alluding to. Since this too would be caught in the wake of what appears to be very strong ULL that has been effecting bonnie. My thinking is that this blob on conv. from 98 gets pushed into the carib. and then dragged simularly to bonnie up to the north to end up following bonnie
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morning water puppy
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Quoting leo305:


miami radar is becoming useless.. as it's loosing the data, indicating high winds possibly with that line.




This blasted radar always goes down when I want it the most...
"Message Date: Jul 21 2010 12:48:23
THE PALM BEACH TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. TECHS WILL DO
MAINTENANCE ON IT...BUT TIME OF RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN."
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Quoting Jedkins01:



dude its the tiniest little joke of a storm ever, tropical cylones that hit south Florida do normally bring pretty significant rain impacts up here in central Florida. I would know, Ive lived here a while...

So for the record, no its not cause I'm "not receiving Bonnie", its just Bonnie is a little joke of a storm...

right I suppose. How was the rain from Andrew?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning WU.....

looks as if a lot of the precipitation from 98 is being separated to the south east of the storm and pushed back into the Carib..


I noticed that too...
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Quoting gator23:

Katrina did NOT get stronger over land. It didn't weaken to a Tropical Storm but it did not Strengthen.
sorry but katrina did infact have a increase in intensity after landfall and thats a fact jack
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Quoting gator23:

you live in Central Florida and are not receiving Bonnie, I am sure it will rain alot in the areas that will get the storm.



dude its the tiniest little joke of a storm ever, tropical cylones that hit south Florida do normally bring pretty significant rain impacts up here in central Florida. I would know, Ive lived here a while...

So for the record, no its not cause I'm "not receiving Bonnie", its just Bonnie is a little joke of a storm...
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Quoting seflagamma:
isn't the Center of Cir....se of that blog of storms?


It's trying to wrap a bit of moisture around itself now. It is more or less south of the main convection in the blob.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
Quoting leo305:


FAY got stronger over land, as did Katrina, and some other systems.

Katrina did NOT get stronger over land. It didn't weaken to a Tropical Storm but it did not Strengthen.
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So is Tampa Fl under a watch now too
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847. IKE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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