Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1200 100724 0000 100724 1200 100725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 79.7W 25.8N 82.0W 26.9N 84.6W 28.1N 86.8W
BAMD 24.8N 79.7W 26.5N 83.3W 28.6N 86.9W 31.1N 89.6W
BAMM 24.8N 79.7W 26.0N 82.4W 27.5N 85.4W 29.2N 87.9W
LBAR 24.8N 79.7W 26.4N 83.0W 28.3N 86.3W 30.3N 89.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 1200 100727 1200 100728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 89.1W 31.8N 92.5W 34.6N 94.6W 37.5N 95.3W
BAMD 33.7N 91.1W 37.3N 89.4W 37.8N 82.1W 35.2N 74.0W
BAMM 31.0N 90.0W 34.5N 91.9W 37.5N 90.4W 38.1N 85.8W
LBAR 32.5N 90.4W 36.0N 88.1W 36.7N 80.4W 36.0N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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946. 7544
check cmc from gthe spin in pr it was right on track with bonnie maybe right with the pr spinner hmmmmm
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Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Taco, stop by on your way home and have a drink.
Good Morning to you :o)

Well I'm off today but I bet you all will be busy with the watches going up this morning....

But you never know where I will be today and just might come by and get a MtDew if there are cold....

Taco :o)
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There is a reason W PAC doesn't name their storms until they Become Typhoons. Because there are so many of them. Here it is a lot different, not nearly as many.
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Hi Storm, thanks for your update. Looks like we may get a little damp here in South Mississippi. How do you think we will fare for late Saturday evening, early Sunday morning? Alot of out of towners here that will want to know. TIA and good morning
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Quoting Twinkster:


maybe they should increase the minimum wind speed for a tropical storm
No they shouldn't.
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Down in SoDade, having a Tug McGraw Peggy Lee Fastball moment: "Is that all there is?"
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I am only really mentioning the idea of not naming tropical storms just because of storms like Bonnie having a name seems quite ridiculous lol. But ya know, removing names from tropical storms is of course, not actually a practical idea haha


maybe they should increase the minimum wind speed for a tropical storm
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Quoting SLU:
NOTICE THE TREND SO FAR



Storms hate North America so far this season.
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937. MahFL
Hmmm the 1km vis stoppped updating at 11:40.
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Quoting rossclick:
wheres Pat with his 40 frame radar when you need him :)


I can never open any of Pat's links. I have a hard time with some of Ike's links as well. :(
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I am only really mentioning the idea of not naming tropical storms just because of storms like Bonnie having a name seems quite ridiculous lol. But ya know, removing names from tropical storms is of course, not actually a practical idea haha
Why is it quite ridiculous? A tropical storm regardless of having rains of more than 20 inches or winds of more than 65mph is still a tropical storm. And yes I do believe that Bonnie deserves a name.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


something is spining north of Puerto Rico


Yeah I see that....do you think it can become something?
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933. beell
Quoting tkeith:
positively titilating...can I say that?


say it. believe it. live it.
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Quoting seflagamma:
I think TS do deserve names, some TS's bring heavy amounts of rainfall and way too many of them become Cat1 'canes right before landfall.

Most here in South Florida will never forget
TS Irene, which caught everyone off guard and got stronger coming over the Everglades to Broward and Palm Beach county. We had no power for 2 days and had 7" of standing water around our home for 2 days... it flooded daughter's car and several others on our street.

Katrina also caught a lot of folks off guard in SE Florida, it changed direction at last minute and dipped south as it became a Cat1 storm...and even brought some damage to Dade County. Broward was prepared for Katrina, Dade wasn't. and it hit Dade not Broward.

Andrew was a small tight destructive storm, we got very little rainfall from it here in Broward. It also took a last minute dip to the SW and hit South Dade instead of Broward where it was originally intended.



Yeah I am only really mentioning the idea of not naming tropical storms just because of storms like Bonnie having a name seems quite ridiculous lol. But ya know, removing names from tropical storms is of course, not actually a practical idea haha
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE SYNOPSIS JULY 23, 2010 ISSUED 7:40 A.M.


Good Morning Storm,

Thank you for the comprehensive update!

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Quoting FLdewey:
Jeez more Katrina references today than yesterday.

Over under for today by 5pm is 100 mentions.
$100 on the over...
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Link
href="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mlrf1" target="_blank">Link

href="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=smkf1" target="_blank">Link
Fowey Rocks, FL. Off Miami 60Deg @ 22kts
Molasses Reef, FL. Off Tavernier 50Deg @ 19kts
Sombrero Key, FL. Off Marathon 30Deg @ 15kts
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Im not sure if the blog is slow or I ignored too many people..


Both, LOL. Sure does make the reading go faster when you reset your "show' options though.
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Good morning! LOL Bonnie's so tiny!! :D
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Im not sure if the blog is slow or I ignored too many people..


LOL, I was thinking the same thing.. by end of July I have a lot on Ignore.. and I know by end of August there will be even more additions to that list! :o)
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Quoting taco2me61:
Good Morning Everyone,

Wow I got woke up at 5AM this morning with my Weather Radio going off saying we along the North Gulf Coast have been put under Tropical Storm Watches.... Now she (Bonnie) is moving WNW at 19MPH. Thats a fast clip and if she stay on that track and does not slow down she will be here Sunday evening....

I will be going to Dauphin Island tomorrow to take video and or pictures...

Even though this is only a Tropical Storm Bonnie can still suprize us all so play it safe and be ready for the uninspected....

Taco :o)
Good morning Taco, stop by on your way home and have a drink.
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Quoting StormW:


Good morning!

As Jeff Masters says, small storms are hard to figure in terms of intensity. The track will be pretty much La/Ms. Too many folks are writing this off. Things will unfold fast if there is any further development. The upper atmosphere combined with a small storm will create many uncertainties. Stay tuned for sure...
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Jeez more Katrina references today than yesterday.

Over under for today by 5pm is 100 mentions.
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Quoting IKE:





something is spining north of Puerto Rico
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Quoting celius:


Actually, tropical storms can quickly ramp up into hurricanes which is exactly why they need to be named......Waiting until it becomes a hurricane, closer to shore perhaps, would be disasterous.



That is good point! I was kind of joking about the idea, just because of lame little storms like Bonnie having names haha
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Quoting gator23:

Irene was a Hurricane. but it was a surprise to us all.


yes Irene was a hurricane but it was not expected to become a hurricane...by the time the hurricane warnings were issued the storm was on top of us. We had already lost power once the warnings were issued.
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wheres Pat with his 40 frame radar when you need him :)
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Im not sure if the blog is slow or I ignored too many people..


LOL!
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Good Morning All

Thanks for the update StormW. Are this year's storms falling apart and then reorganizing more than we typicallly see (I know storms pulse up and down with Dmax/Dmin)?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Im not sure if the blog is slow or I ignored too many people..
I don't think the term is "too many" more than "the" people...LOL
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I saw many calling Bonnie dead this morning. IMO as long as there is a little something out there you never take an eye off of it. She hasn't even gotten into the GOM. We all thought we were safe for Katrina when she hit Florida, we all thought we were in the clear just a few days before Katrina hit, then one shift in her track to the right had us all scrambling. Until whatever Bonnie is or becomes makes it in land never write her off.
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Quoting beell:


ULL excitation.
positively titilating...can I say that?
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910. IKE



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Good Morning Everyone,

Wow I got woke up at 5AM this morning with my Weather Radio going off saying we along the North Gulf Coast have been put under Tropical Storm Watches.... Now she (Bonnie) is moving WNW at 19MPH. Thats a fast clip and if she stay on that track and does not slow down she will be here Sunday evening....

I will be going to Dauphin Island tomorrow to take video and or pictures...

Even though this is only a Tropical Storm Bonnie can still suprize us all so play it safe and be ready for the uninspected....

Taco :o)
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something is spining north of Puerto Rico
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907. 7544
shes still 80 miles away from so fla as of now so fla should start to see more in 4 hours
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well I am working on a MET degree or soon to be FSU transfer, so it would be funny if I did present that to them hahahah

As long as I presented the idea to them in a humble manner, they might just consider my thought! LOL I just don't think anyone has ever questioned the idea of no longer naming tropical storms?



worst idea ever
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE SYNOPSIS JULY 23, 2010 ISSUED 7:40 A.M.
Thank you Storm. As always, on top of the situation.
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Quoting seflagamma:
I think TS do deserve names, some TS's bring heavy amounts of rainfall and way too many of them become Cat1 'canes right before landfall.

Most here in South Florida will never forget
TS Irene, which caught everyone off guard and got stronger coming over the Everglades to Broward and Palm Beach county. We had no power for 2 days and had 7" of standing water around our home for 2 days... it flooded daugther's car and several others on our stree.

Katrina also caught a lot of folks off guard in SE Florida, it changed direction at last minute and dipped south as it became a Cat1 storm...and even brought some damage to Dade County. Broward was prepared for Katrina, Dade wasn't. and it hit Dade not Broward.

Andrew was a small tight destructive storm, we got very little rainfall from it here in Broward.

Irene was a Hurricane. but it was a surprise to us all.
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903. beell
Quoting aquak9:


I noticed that too...


ULL excitation.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gator watch the image at 865 it increased twice once while making landfall over fla then again after final landfall over orleans sat images dont lie anyone can doctor printed text

Keeper, he said it strengthened over land, I have posted evidence from the NHC which is this source, proving otherwise, I do not want to argue. I know it strengthened before and during landfall but he said over land. And by the time it got to mainland monoroe it slightly weakened not much mind you but it did not grow stronger as he said.
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Im not sure if the blog is slow or I ignored too many people..
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Quoting alaina1085:


Please go present that to the NHC so I can LMAO!



Well I am working on a MET degree or soon to be FSU transfer, so it would be funny if I did present that to them hahahah

As long as I presented the idea to them in a humble manner, they might just consider my thought! LOL I just don't think anyone has ever questioned the idea of no longer naming tropical storms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think TS do deserve names, some TS's bring heavy amounts of rainfall and way too many of them become Cat1 'canes right before landfall.

Most here in South Florida will never forget
TS Irene, which caught everyone off guard and got stronger coming over the Everglades to Broward and Palm Beach county. We had no power for 2 days and had 7" of standing water around our home for 2 days... it flooded daughter's car and several others on our street.

Katrina also caught a lot of folks off guard in SE Florida, it changed direction at last minute and dipped south as it became a Cat1 storm...and even brought some damage to Dade County. Broward was prepared for Katrina, Dade wasn't. and it hit Dade not Broward.

Andrew was a small tight destructive storm, we got very little rainfall from it here in Broward. It also took a last minute dip to the SW and hit South Dade instead of Broward where it was originally intended.
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Quoting StormW:


Mid to upper:

WV LOOP
Thanks StormW :)
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Wow blog is SLOW today.

MIA appears to have all flights on time... no delays yet.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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