Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 997 - 947

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

The CMC model (at some point) hinted at two storms forming and advancing wnw in the area of PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, all. Thanks for the update, StormW.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting vortextrance:


That is out of the discussion this morning saying they were having trouble finding w/nw winds.
Well then it could have a broad or maybe open circulation but that doesn't mean that it is an open wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I live in South Miami, right now (8:30 EDT) the weather is light winds and drizzle. Radar looks like the center is not far off shore. Maybe NHC jumped the gun on naming this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
Pat's not here so I'll say it...

Oil Vey
Imposter you are.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Center is exposed, it's SE of Key Largo.


Due to ULL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
987. 7544
cmc takes thaat pr spin into so fla also more rain follows bonnie
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting StormW:


Center is exposed, it's SE of Key Largo.


Thanks Storm!
At least I now know I'm not as crazy as tey say I am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bonnie looks to heading for Central Dade County infact very near or over Miami in 4 hours then exiting around Naples. Keys should get little to no impact just as i said yesterday when I upset so many by saying this will go north of the NHC track. Center is very evident on Miami radar so the NHC center location does not appear to be correct.
Unless she begins near due north heading she isn't going to go over Miami.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all, nice morning to stay in bed steady light to moderate rain just what my lawn needed. Hopefully thats all we get.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Bonnie will make landfall in a few hours in Southern Miami Dade County.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Link
href="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mlrf1" target="_blank">Link

href="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=smkf1" target="_blank">Link

Good Bouy!Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Jeff9641 brother I try to keep a very small ignore list... but you're close to being number three on mine. Don't start today please. You upset so many because you keep saying "look I'm right", "hey guys look I'm right".

Just stop the madness... it's nice and quiet in here. ;-)

Why are you reacting to him... Who's mad?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok???


That is out of the discussion this morning saying they were having trouble finding w/nw winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
500mb vorticity is nearly non-existent.



We shall see what happens to it I guess. Anyways other than that not much else looking threatening that is imminent to land within 5 days. But the dam may break in a week or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morn'n everyone...coffee?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
974. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1200 100724 0000 100724 1200 100725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 79.7W 25.8N 82.0W 26.9N 84.6W 28.1N 86.8W
BAMD 24.8N 79.7W 26.5N 83.3W 28.6N 86.9W 31.1N 89.6W
BAMM 24.8N 79.7W 26.0N 82.4W 27.5N 85.4W 29.2N 87.9W
LBAR 24.8N 79.7W 26.4N 83.0W 28.3N 86.3W 30.3N 89.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 1200 100727 1200 100728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 89.1W 31.8N 92.5W 34.6N 94.6W 37.5N 95.3W
BAMD 33.7N 91.1W 37.3N 89.4W 37.8N 82.1W 35.2N 74.0W
BAMM 31.0N 90.0W 34.5N 91.9W 37.5N 90.4W 38.1N 85.8W
LBAR 32.5N 90.4W 36.0N 88.1W 36.7N 80.4W 36.0N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Models have shifted east more.

This may make it's final landfall east of New Orleans.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
973. papla
Quoting StormW:


Once it gets into the GOMEX, I'll let ya know. Fair enough?


Thanks Storm! Long time lurker, first time poster. Westbank of New Orleans here. Have "listened" to you for a long time. Appreciate all you do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a depression forming north and west of Puerto Rico. I'am checking the conditions right now to see the steering and shear situation, no dry air very moist environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1200 100724 0000 100724 1200 100725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 79.7W 25.8N 82.0W 26.9N 84.6W 28.1N 86.8W
BAMD 24.8N 79.7W 26.5N 83.3W 28.6N 86.9W 31.1N 89.6W
BAMM 24.8N 79.7W 26.0N 82.4W 27.5N 85.4W 29.2N 87.9W
LBAR 24.8N 79.7W 26.4N 83.0W 28.3N 86.3W 30.3N 89.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 1200 100727 1200 100728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 89.1W 31.8N 92.5W 34.6N 94.6W 37.5N 95.3W
BAMD 33.7N 91.1W 37.3N 89.4W 37.8N 82.1W 35.2N 74.0W
BAMM 31.0N 90.0W 34.5N 91.9W 37.5N 90.4W 38.1N 85.8W
LBAR 32.5N 90.4W 36.0N 88.1W 36.7N 80.4W 36.0N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



Link for you Keeper:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


I wouldn't be too sure just yet. It is middle to upper levels as well.
500mb vorticity is nearly non-existent.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: January 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
Quoting Jedkins01:



That is good point! I was kind of joking about the idea, just because of lame little storms like Bonnie having names haha


It might pay to remember that storm names aren't handed out as an honor; they're simply handles attached to make them both easier to remember and simpler to communicate about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That "pr spinner" is an upper low. Development into a tropical cyclone is not expected.



I wouldn't be too sure just yet. It is middle to upper levels as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vortextrance:
They were correct to name the storm Bonnie. She qualified based on the NHC standards. THere is a good chance this is now an open wave, but that doesn't mean she shouldn't have been named.
Ok???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Once it gets into the GOMEX, I'll let ya know. Fair enough?
Yes sir, more than I can ask for, thank you as always and have a blessed day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


How about, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"?


Classic!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
There is still a fly in the ointment out in the GOM once Bonnie gets over there. I have low confidence in the intensity guidance much beyond 24 hrs.
Pat's not here so I'll say it...

Oil Vey
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
962. A4Guy
Link

looks to me that the center is heading NW...right towards South Miami. Can someone please confirm that is the COC (looks like a couple of semi-circles entering the radar area).
Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


How about, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"?


Exactly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Storm,

Are you ignoring me? I've posted twice a comment on your update. Please check your mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
bonnie still 78 miles from so fla still


4 hours till landfall then. Around noon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They were correct to name the storm Bonnie. She qualified based on the NHC standards. THere is a good chance this is now an open wave, but that doesn't mean she shouldn't have been named.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
952. 7544
bonnie still 78 miles from so fla still
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting gator23:

it in fact did not. From the NHC

KATRINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING OVER MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN SOON OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...


you can read the text here. I know you wont, but you can

Link

jack


Gator, here is the link the the NHC synopsis. Katrinia did in fact, strengthen over Broward and Dade County. Read it carefully.

By the time it reached Monroe County, which is to the South of Dade and Broward it did weaken.

I think you will find the article interesting.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
check cmc from gthe spin in pr it was right on track with bonnie maybe right with the pr spinner hmmmmm
That "pr spinner" is an upper low. Development into a tropical cyclone is not expected.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1200 100724 0000 100724 1200 100725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 79.7W 25.8N 82.0W 26.9N 84.6W 28.1N 86.8W
BAMD 24.8N 79.7W 26.5N 83.3W 28.6N 86.9W 31.1N 89.6W
BAMM 24.8N 79.7W 26.0N 82.4W 27.5N 85.4W 29.2N 87.9W
LBAR 24.8N 79.7W 26.4N 83.0W 28.3N 86.3W 30.3N 89.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 1200 100727 1200 100728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 89.1W 31.8N 92.5W 34.6N 94.6W 37.5N 95.3W
BAMD 33.7N 91.1W 37.3N 89.4W 37.8N 82.1W 35.2N 74.0W
BAMM 31.0N 90.0W 34.5N 91.9W 37.5N 90.4W 38.1N 85.8W
LBAR 32.5N 90.4W 36.0N 88.1W 36.7N 80.4W 36.0N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 23.1N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 997 - 947

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.