Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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The NHC does normally do a great job, yes their track my be a little too south this time, but who gets it right perfectly every time? Stop bashing the experts, cause I highly doubt any of you who bash them a have enough education in meteorology to challenge them. Plus even if if you did, you wouldn't last a week doing their job lol.
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Quoting 7544:
bonnie is developing another good band or tail of the fla waters this may be a longer rain event fo so fla

cmc takes the pr wave to so fla also so if anyting does form there it will follow bonnie

could we 99l soon



Seems to be something going on there.
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Looking ahead.. ECMWF brings off a pretty impressive wave off Africa with a 1013 mb low.. something worth watching.
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Quoting tkeith:
There just seems like somethings been missing on the blog the last couple of days...

cant put my finger on it...


cyclonebuster's tunnels?
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1043. tkeith
Quoting FLdewey:


If you go outside when it comes ashore and open your mouth... your eyes will POP from the huge pressure gradient. Just be sure to wear little league approved baseball pads and a DOT helmet. ;-)
a skull cap and Ray Bans will work just as well...
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Biloxi to Pensacola will take Bonnie, somehwere in there.

Glad it is making its approach from the SE, less oil issues as opposed to a sw approach.


I'm glad it's coming from the SE too, may not be such good fortune for those West of us though. Looks like we could get a decent amount of rain from this in the Panhandle if it stays a top loaded storm like this. I need the rain at my place, it's probably been 2 weeks since the last time it rained.
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1041. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bonnie
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts
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Quoting DestinJeff:


TS Gretel?


More of a moist environment if something were to come behind it.
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The caps are not fooling anyone you know who I mean.
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1038. 7544
bonnie is developing another good band or tail of the fla waters this may be a longer rain event fo so fla

cmc takes the pr wave to so fla also so if anyting does form there it will follow bonnie

could we 99l soon
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6869
1036. whs2012
Quoting DoubleAction:
Checked the shear maps, looks like 30 knots nw of PR right now, in 72 hours it lessens some but that's not great for an infant to grow on. Track is going to be similar to Bonnie's.


I thought Miami said this was just a ULL?
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1035. tkeith
Quoting Patrap:


Vort incognito?

JFV-itis...?

hmmm...could be :)
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Quoting Patrap:


Vort incognito?

JFV-itis...?

LOL
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Seems to something brewing north of PR this morning or is this in the mid levels?
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1031. Fla727
Here in West Palm Beach FL. Light wind no rain, hope we get some rain, we need it.
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1027. Grothar
What is this above the DR?

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Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
8:00 am NE ( 40 deg ) 21 kts
7:50 am NE ( 46 deg ) 20 kts
7:40 am NE ( 52 deg ) 23 kts
7:30 am NE ( 52 deg ) 26 kts
7:20 am NE ( 52 deg ) 26 kts
7:10 am NE ( 54 deg ) 24 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
7:20 am NE ( 50 deg ) 32 kts

Station FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL

Map data ©2010 - Terms of Use Currently selected station
Stations with recent data
Stations with no data in last 8 hours
(24 hours for tsunami stations) Disclaimer


Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN Station
MARS payload
25.590 N 80.097 W (25°35'25" N 80°5'48" W)

Site elevation: 0 m above mean sea level
Air temp height: 11 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 43.9 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 29.3 m above mean sea level

FoweyRocksBuoy
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1025. tkeith
There just seems like somethings been missing on the blog the last couple of days...

cant put my finger on it...
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Quoting Neapolitan:


It might pay to remember that storm names aren't handed out as an honor; they're simply handles attached to make them both easier to remember and simpler to communicate about.
1


Yeah, that's true!
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were is all the wind its calm here?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless she begins near due north heading she isn't going to go over Miami.


Heading for Central Dade County. By the way who cares if it's MIA or just south by 10 miles this thing is so small and weak that our summer storms are stronger than this. Normally a TS in MIA means nice rain bands in C FL but it is sunny here in Orlando.
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1020. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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Quoting omgonozohshite:


BOOM SPOT ON MY MAN, SPOT ON!
CALL THE NEXT LANDFALL AFTER SHE GETS INTO THE GULF!
EAST OF NEW ORLEANS FOR SURE


Too soon to tell right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1018. FLdewey
Quoting Jeff9641:


How about this hit the ignore button. I don't need your stupid comments and post something constructive will you.


One last question before you go... when it doesn't pass right over Miami will you *still* say you were right? I'm just curious.

Don't get me wrong. You da man!
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Checked the shear maps, looks like 30 knots nw of PR right now, in 72 hours it lessens some but that's not great for an infant to grow on. Track is going to be similar to Bonnie's.
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Bonnie has left a nice trail for a storm to follow.
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1014. Patrap
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salutations everyone!

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well then it could have a broad or maybe open circulation but that doesn't mean that it is an open wave.


Very true shouldn't of used that term. Still Bonnie may be a thing of the past very soon.
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Quoting chrisdscane:
umm guys im at kendall and theres no wind is this like a joke storm?


The joke is on all of us. :)
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Quoting tkeith:
Pat was on earlier, he's doing a funraiser for Portlight today.


fun's always on the rise when Pat's around, LOL. Here's hoping the funds will also rise - Portlight does great work!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
There is still a fly in the ointment out in the GOM once Bonnie gets over there. I have low confidence in the intensity guidance much beyond 24 hrs.

Well said. Dr. Carver also addresses computer model issues with a weak initialization.
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1006. FLdewey
I'm surprised those building are still standing!

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Quoting whs2012:


When do you think the nhc will designate it an invest?
As Miami stated, It's an ULL not a depression.
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Here they come.. the 'NHC-is-wrong' crowd. Same crowd that said the NHC was wrong about TD2 and 95L.
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umm guys im at kendall and theres no wind is this like a joke storm?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Tropical Storm Bonnie will make landfall in a few hours in Southern Miami Dade County.


BOOM SPOT ON MY MAN, SPOT ON!
CALL THE NEXT LANDFALL AFTER SHE GETS INTO THE GULF!
EAST OF NEW ORLEANS FOR SURE
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Quoting msgambler:
Imposter you are.....LOL
Pat was on earlier, he's doing a funraiser for Portlight today.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why is it quite ridiculous? A tropical storm regardless of having rains of more than 20 inches or winds of more than 65mph is still a tropical storm. And yes I do believe that Bonnie deserves a name.



Well Bonnie doesn't exactly have destructive winds or a 20 inch rain output...


But ya know, just because some tropical storms are really lame and weak for a named system, certainly doesn't mean all of them are, some definitely do deserve names. My idea of not naming them is just a funny thought, not something that I would actually try to change haha
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The CMC model (at some point) hinted at two storms forming and advancing wnw in the area of PR.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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