Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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1496. peterj
Things have calm down here in South Miami-Wade (Dade) County. But I was just outside and it seems we will get more rain in a few.
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I hope that little brat hurrkat05 stays off of here. The most obnoxious one I have ever seen
also she predicted that Bonnie would never happen

Quoting StormHype:


Yeah, Jeffs a nobody who made a lucky guess a couple days ago and then relentlessly grand-standed about how they "called it" blah blah trying to demand respect as if he has a major Napolean complex. Probably change his user ID today. Hurrkat is someone to watch next time IMO. I hate the CAPS but they nailed it.
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Why don;t you shut up with your OMG, it's irritating...okay


Quoting oracle28:
"post 1454 lightning reported near miami"

OMG! That's unprecedented.
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Area off of Puerto Rico is firing some convection and also has some vorticity to it.

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1492. wxhatt
Heat Advisory here in the east.
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1491. peterj
This kinda reminds me of the October 1999 No Name Storm the hit Miami-Dade. I remember it took me about three hours to get home due to all the flooding. It seems to me that every once in awhile Miami-Dade likes to push the envelope.
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1490. wxhatt
Looks like the core of 36 Knot winds are pushing into south Miami area now.

Showing up on the Base Radial Veloctiy:
Link

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1489. leo305
center is about to make landfall near south central dade
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1488. leo305
Quoting peterj:
I personally think that it is kinda crazy Miami-Dade county did not shut down operations.


I agree..
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1487. peterj
I personally think that it is kinda crazy Miami-Dade county did not shut down operations.
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1486. leo305
winds are going up in miami
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I tried telling people last night that this was a non-event. Meanwhile, there is a state of emergency in Louisiana.


its about the oil coming in, not the storm itself
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So we are heading into a 2-3 week cycle of a downward pulse MJO. Well, it wasn't like we had much developing with an upward phase for the last month. There may not be any invests at all until mid/late August.
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1483. leo305
north side is moving on shore.. lets see if when the winds shift out of the ENE/E will they pick up
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Quoting divdog:
Jeff9641

you called for a 65MPH tropical storm or a cat1 hurricane before 1st landfall and dont try to lie your way out of this one. you made a bad call. you also had it going in as far north as cape canavral. take it like a man if you are going to make bold forecasts.


Yeah, Jeffs a nobody who made a lucky guess a couple days ago and then relentlessly grand-standed about how they "called it" blah blah trying to demand respect as if he has a major Napolean complex. Probably change his user ID today. Hurrkat is someone to watch next time IMO. I hate the CAPS but they nailed it.
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This season makes you appreciate how many factors must be just right to get a tropical cyclone to develop. If one is off it thwarts development. I for one took that for granted in 2004/05 when it seems every invest developed into a major hurricane. 2010 is shaping up to be similar to last year and 2006, aka DUDS!!
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I tried telling people last night that this was a non-event. Meanwhile, there is a state of emergency in Louisiana.


I'm pretty sure the state of emergency has to do more with the oil thats prolly gonna wash ashore and not necessarily just Bonnie
Member Since: July 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1479. wxhatt
Quoting StormW:
Better than Rowan and Martins Laugh In on here.


LOL, Just wait till we get into the peak of the season!
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"post 1454 lightning reported near miami"

OMG! That's unprecedented.
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1476. MahFL
Remember guys this was a min TS and a small one, NOT a 70 mph huge TS.
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This reminds me of the Keystone Cops!
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1474. hydrus
Quoting reedzone:
Just for the record, and you can find my posts on the blog saying "50/50 chance for a Hurricane" I never predicted it to be a Hurricane, but I did predict a 60 mph. landfall which was 20 mph. off. I said at the moment I expected a strong TS because I didn't know what the ULL was gonna do, it was moving well west of Bonnie until now, it's moving slowly and Bonnie is catching the outer fringes. I didn't expect this, but it's good for the oil spill.
I dont know Reed. If this is a 40 mph storm and it is moving at almost 20, winds would be around 60 in the north side....we will see...it aint over yet.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22602
NEW BLOG
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1471. breald
anything else we need to be watching?
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Quoting btwntx08:
actually she isnt right just yet got to see what happens later on in the gom i think the ull will move some


Naa, the shear map shows the marginal conditions closing over Bonnie, should be a depression by 2 or 5 p.m. The fact that recon still seeing TS winds shows me it will still be TS Bonnie by 11 a.m.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting leo305:
lightning reported near miami


red alert, put head between knees and math book over head now! lol
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I love how the Key's are under a tropical storm warning and yet, based on satellite, looks like a beautiful day down in Key West. Bonnie is tiny in size.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Worth re-posting


Worth reposting why? Self-aggrandizing, non-scientific whining repeated is still just self-aggrandizing, non-scientific whining, isn't it?
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1464. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nasty rainfall right here, gusts over 25 knots also have been noted. Skies are also very very dark, looks like nighttime. As far as "damage" goes if you could really call it that, many small to moderate sized twigs and leaves are on the ground.



Twig-caster!

Leaf-caster!
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1463. Patrap
psst..
er, NEW Blog Homies
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129824
That was a Tropical Storm ?????

I've driven through thunderstorms worse than this !!

AMEN Brother.
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1461. hydrus
Quoting StormHype:
Bonnie has less convection than a FL summer pop-up tstorm.

So where's our next prospect so we can start hyping it up? Is the CMC spining up a batch of doom for us?
I was thinking the same thing. However, this storm is moving at almost 20 mph. There might be some 60 mph gusts in some of the stronger storms north of the center. Our pop ups seldomly move that quick..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22602
Quoting Hurricanes12:


You have to understand that this is a very compact, disorganized system that was just a rain maker for Florida. There are already 50 posts about people talking about this storm being pathetic. It's a factor of nature that should be respected. Take it as a warning for what the future can bring.


take this as a blessing i much rather have this over us than hati or DR
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
"So much self congrats in here... smells like Astro Glide. :-s"

HA! Good one.

I'll admit I missed the track by 3 football fields. :)

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Nasty rainfall right here, gusts over 30 knots also have been noted. Skies are also very very dark, looks like nighttime. As far as "damage" goes if you could really call it that, many small to moderate sized twigs and leaves are on the ground.

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Just for the record, and you can find my posts on the blog saying "50/50 chance for a Hurricane" I never predicted it to be a Hurricane, but I did predict a 60 mph. landfall which was 20 mph. off. I said at the moment I expected a strong TS because I didn't know what the ULL was gonna do, it was moving well west of Bonnie until now, it's moving slowly and Bonnie is catching the outer fringes. I didn't expect this, but it's good for the oil spill.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
1455. MahFL
Do we have landfal near Homestead ?
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1454. leo305
lightning reported near miami
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1453. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
954 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

...FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS...

...FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS...

AT 944 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED
AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES EAST OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF KEY
BISCAYNE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PORTION OF THE SPIRAL BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND MAY BE
DRIVEN TO THE SURFACE BY THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT...

KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI BEACH...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS...
LITTLE HAITI...
OPA-LOCKA...
MIAMI LAKES...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THIS SPIRAL BAND IS ALSO IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
That was a Tropical Storm ?????

I've driven through thunderstorms worse than this !!


You have to understand that this is a very compact, disorganized system that was just a rain maker for Florida. There are already 50 posts about people talking about this storm being pathetic. It's a factor of nature that should be respected. Take it as a warning for what the future can bring.
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Quoting FLdewey:
You guys are ruining the 24hr break for Hurrikat by talking about it.


They should 24 break the hypsters who made calls based on fear mongering before doing it to someone who was dead right. The blog seems to punish those who don't spin to the side of hype. Maybe it has to do with CPM and web hits doing way better when rumor and fear are rampant.
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1442. LOL
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1449. wxhatt
Looking back at the 06z run of the HWRF, it seems to have the best handle on the storms intensity and path.

Link
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2010 has been a bust so far for the United States. Let's hope it stays that way. :)

I just don't see how we get to 20+ storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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