TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep.



if u dont mind me asking were r u in dade county i dont mean adress or anything
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
www.evacuteer.org




On the morning of Saturday August 30th, 2008, in response to the approach of Hurricane Gustav, local officials activated the City Assisted Evacuation Plan for the first time since its inception in 2006. The purpose of the CAEP is “to help citizens who want to evacuate during an emergency, but lack the capability to self-evacuate,” by utilizing trains, buses, and planes. During the CAEP, over 200 volunteers assisted evacuation operations at the Union Passenger Terminal from which evacuees left the city. Volunteers were also on hand at City Hall inside the New Orleans 311 information center registering evacuees. An equal number were present to assist the re-entry of the 20,000 beneficiaries of the CAEP.

evacuee bus drop-off What Americans saw during the two days of evacuating were tens of thousands of New Orleanians leaving their city on chartered buses. What they didn’t see were volunteers, young and old, native and newly-moved, offering their skills and manpower to assist the evacuation.

They translated to non-English speakers. Helped seniors off platforms. Tagged pets with registration collars. Distributed water and snacks. Lugged heavy baggage. Many of these evacuation volunteers had no idea what was in store for them over the course of their time, but were willing to help however they were needed.

The Gustav CAEP was a success, but simultaneously revealed many areas that could be improved. Stronger initial coordination and planning, for example, would allow willing volunteers to report to pick-up locations across the city at pre-determined times rather than all converging on the embarkation stations. Early identification of job responsibilities combined with annual and pertinent trainings would allow specialized volunteers to more effectively and efficiently perform their duties. Finally, conducting outreach and establishing relationships with organizations that desire to assist the evacuation of high-need populations will allow greater empowerment of evacuation volunteers across the city.

Thus, Evacuteer.org was launched on June 2, 2009 as an organization of New Orleans citizens committed to serving as “evacuteers” upon the future initiation of the CAEP. The organization received its 501c3 charitable status in September 2009 and is committed to a public/private funding model.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting Patrap:


were taking a good look at the forecast and the Local Emg mgt and EOC People had a 3:30 PM Conference call with the NHC NWS.

.so things are in Phase 1 and ready to got to Phase 2 in the Morning.


yep, looks like yall in the line of fire, ridge gonna steer her wnw, putting you in tropical storm conditions, and oily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
A vortex pass thru the NE quad would be the most important to determine if we have a TS or not.


Good point i'll bbl.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting extreme236:
A vortex pass thru the NE quad would be the most important to determine if we have a TS or not.


exactly
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Quoting extreme236:
A vortex pass thru the NE quad would be the most important to determine if we have a TS or not.


thats what they are doing right now.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Thanks, Dr. Masters... Harlingen, Tx has had Alex and TD2... no more Pleeze!
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1591. btwntx08 8:11 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


btwntx: do you not know how to spell ignore?

check again
on old blog
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Quoting extreme236:
A vortex pass thru the NE quad would be the most important to determine if we have a TS or not.
Yep.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing there in my view to upgrade to a TS.Not very impressive wind speeds found by recon.


Hey there "killer," good to see you.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing there in my view to upgrade to a TS.Not very impressive wind speeds found by recon.
ime: 19:09:30Z
Coordinates: 22.6333N 75.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.3 mb (~ 29.27 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 153 meters (~ 502 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.7 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 29° at 33 knots (From the NNE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 24.4°C (~ 75.9°F)
Dew Pt: 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Miami Hurricane: As you can see, we have a higher probability than you do of seeing tropical storm force winds. I was not trying to be antagonistic, but I respectfully disagree with your landfall location at Southern Miami-Dade County. I personally think it will be farther to the south.
We all have agreements and disagreements. Anyways, I don't want tropical storm force winds, at all, it's not like I enjoy losing power and having no A/C. And there's a difference between a wishcaster and one who looks at steering, satellite, etc, etc...
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A vortex pass thru the NE quad would be the most important to determine if we have a TS or not.
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54. Bonz
Wow. Wasn't expecting this update. I was gone for a few hours and then looked at the radar, went "meh" and then read the update.

Hope this doesn't end up being nastier here than we thought it would be.
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98L still outdoing her
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there saying 36 knots and thats not even in there strongest part
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Quoting RitaEvac:
Pat is in fer some Cajun weather coming dat way.... gonna be on dirty side of ol Bonnie


were taking a good look at the forecast and the Local Emg mgt and EOC People had a 3:30 PM Conference call with the NHC NWS.

.so things are in Phase 1 and ready to got to Phase 2 in the Morning.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
based on infared sat i believe the center has just improved with a small burst of convection notice the small convection and not the othe blob i think bonnie will be born soon and in my opinion it supports a steady north western movemement but notice the ull rapid sw movement
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I am start to get very concern about this one.
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go to TWC there speaking to one of the pilots in the huuricane hunter plane as we speak
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Its getting moister all the time now to her west..

Western Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Pat is in fer some Cajun weather coming dat way.... gonna be on dirty side of ol Bonnie
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Nice post Dr.M.

TD 3 needs some work done. Nighttime would help it a bit.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing there in my view to upgrade to a TS.Not very impressive wind speeds found by recon.


your kidding right?

when recon first was investigating they found tons of winds between 40-45mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing there in my view to upgrade to a TS.Not very impressive wind speeds found by recon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami Hurricane: As you can see, we have a higher probability than you do of seeing tropical storm force winds. I was not trying to be antagonistic, but I respectfully disagree with your landfall location at Southern Miami-Dade County. I personally think it will be farther to the south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC's coordinates at 2pm were 22.3N, 74.9W...
Latest coordinates from recon: 22.4N, 75.1W... 2 tenths west, 1 tenth north.. Continuing WNW, as Dr. Masters has continually stated.. Highest landfall probability continues to lie between the Keys and extreme South Florida..
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Thanks Dr. Masters...

v/r

Jon
Member Since: January 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
thanks DOC
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI




looks like rain should be starting by 8 oclock here in southern pbc
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Thanks for all the information in your post Dr. Masters - helped to clarify things for me.

My husband's ship is now past the developing TD and heading south east to PR - however he emailed and said they had some heavy seas this morning with about 30 knot winds...
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Just looked at the latest WV imagery. Whatever dry air is left in the atmosphere is beginning to mix out. I think that has been the main detriment to lack of heavy thunderstorm activity today.
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Hey everyone, this is Jay from Caribbean Island Storm, i guess my account was compromised and had to create a new one. Wow looks like Florida is going to have some rough weather this weekend.
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Thanks Doc., kinda looks like the shape of a Shrimp!
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Much stronger storm than expect? So not needed to hear that one.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
3 blog updates in 1 day, interesting I guess.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why don't you people ignore him?


Oh I have him on ignore, just all the quoting people do of him/her render it useless.
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NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Thx Doc.
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Thanks Dr. M!
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI




linjk plz
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
23 commts in too this blog and not one say so about TD 3
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This little bugger may be a big problem for someone down the road. It is VERY persistent... and systems that are persistent in the face of unfavorable conditions (which this one WAS in) become a problem when faced with favorable conditions... JMHO ;)
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guys can we get back too Td 3 PLZS
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Blog is moving faaaassssttttt........
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Quoting extreme236:
So much for all that high shear hurrkat was talking about...man could he/she suck any worse at forecasting?
Why don't you people ignore him?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Its most likely a she. She could be stormkat.


Who cares?!
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thanks doc

and on the contrary.. guy on ABC25 out of wpb said its weakening and dont expect an upgrade anytime soon

wtf lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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