TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricane23:
Nothing there in my view to upgrade to a TS.Not very impressive wind speeds found by recon.


Recon found loads and loads of TS winds. As soon as they turned on the SFMR over the system it showed 44 mph winds.
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amy be even Td 4
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When will the models reflect data from the HH's? 00z run?
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Landfall in Miami??? Looks that way system is aimed right in that direction by looking at the WV sat.


Does it exit round Sarasota by your estimate.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
In the last 30 minutes, the upper level low to the west and north of Bonnie has moved even quicker to the west. NASA satellite continues to show development in response to the vanishing influence of the ULL. I am increasing my chance of a hurricane from 90-92% as the odds swing in Bonnie's favor.


there may be absolutely nothing stopping this from erupting tonight
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Quoting FLdewey:
Jim Cantore just tweeted: Why are the mirrors in these hotels so dang high?


LOL!
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Quoting shfr173:
Is she wraping around COC?
looks like she is tryin awful hard just not there yet.
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nice outflow on 98L, better looking.
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Quoting quante:
So impressed that my observations about ULL and strengthening confirmed by the good Doctor.

I may quit my day job.

Bad news for the Gulf. Thank God that well is not spewing oil still though.
If they have to evacuate the well area then they will be forced to take the cap off...allowing oil to flow again..as the currents from the storm will possibly rip the cap off and damage the wellhead.
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Oh No JB!!

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108. IKE
Quoting hurrkat05:
Ii think the whole big deal is shut down the oil operations in the gom..imo i think this is ludicrous and should not happen..this is just a deperession we are talking about which will continue to be affected by wind shear through the gom...imo i do think everyone is jumping the gun including you dr masters..this will set everythign back 14 days before they could start operations again...the NHC will be a complete laughing stock when this depression starts to just be swallowed up by shear and dry air...


Man...you have virtually no cred left. Stop while there's still a faint glimmer of hope for yourself.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
03L should get upgraded to Bonnie at 5PM.




am with you
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55.

Steps to respectable posting in this forum:
1. Lose the all caps... CHECK!
2. Learn how to express your opinion without derogatory comments about other posters, the NHC, Dr. M, etc. (derision of TWC is perfectly acceptable, though)
3. Post information, plots, data, and logic to support your opinion
4. Have thick skin and accept that many will disagree with your opinion and challenge your logic
5.
...
etc.

Finally got number one, I see. Well done!
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recon flying se to nw will see the best of td 3 reported soon
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Is she wraping around COC?
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Is there a website that updates Hurricane Hunter data live? I thought at one time I found a map that shows the trajectory of the flight into and out of the storm and plots the data live. Please advise... Thanks
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Quoting hurrkat05:
Ii think the whole big deal is shut down the oil operations in the gom..imo i think this is ludicrous and should not happen..this is just a deperession we are talking about which will continue to be affected by wind shear through the gom...imo i do think everyone is jumping the gun including you dr masters..this will set everythign back 14 days before they could start operations again...the NHC will be a complete laughing stock when this depression starts to just be swallowed up by shear and dry air...


They've already lost 11 lives on that rig; I doubt they will take any chances at losing more. I used to do the contracts for an offshore company and anytime there was any threat of a storm, be it TD, TS or Hurricane, they evacuated the rigs for the crew's safety.
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03L should get upgraded to Bonnie at 5PM.
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In the last 30 minutes, the upper level low to the west and north of Bonnie has moved even quicker to the west. NASA satellite continues to show development in response to the vanishing influence of the ULL. I am increasing my chance of a hurricane from 90 to 92% as the odds swing in Bonnie's favor.
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Thanks DR Masters for the update
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Quoting hurrkat05:
Ii think the whole big deal is shut down the oil operations in the gom..imo i think this is ludicrous and should not happen..this is just a deperession we are talking about which will continue to be affected by wind shear through the gom...imo i do think everyone is jumping the gun including you dr masters..this will set everythign back 14 days before they could start operations again...the NHC will be a complete laughing stock when this depression starts to just be swallowed up by shear and dry air...


Still here huh?
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Wow I guess people get caught up with the pretty convection instead of actually looking at the systems as a whole

98L may have higher cloud tops, but its LLC is broad, it is in no way better organized than TD 3 at this time

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Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Southeastern Bahamas. The storm will move west-to northwest over the coming days. It is likely to become Bonnie later tonight. The National Hurricane Center's forecast has it making landfall in SW Louisiana late Sunday. If the track (Landfall SW LA) and intensity (50mph at Landfall) validates, Southeast Texas can expect squally weather with winds in the neighborhood of 30 mph. This is very early and residents should make sure they have their hurricane supply kits filled.
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cows walking in circles?? what are they trying to do? Circle the wagons?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Just got a phone call from a buddy in Kissimmee... says all of his cows have started walking in a circle. He says the spiral is starting to tighten.

Tighten your boots kiddies. :-o


You are having too much fun. Stop it, you're killin me! LOL
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all the TD looks way better then last year at this time all the Td and TS had high wind shear on them this years dont the best looking storm that i re call that was the olny good one was bill
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I saw this on CMC last night and now I see it on ECWMF... The now TD 3 gets lost near the coast of SE Texas and then sometime afterward there is a new development in the Gulf following the same track. Weird.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


and there were many more like that, but no dont show anyone that lol



what website is that?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
So impressed that my observations about ULL and strengthening confirmed by the good Doctor.

I may quit my day job.

Bad news for the Gulf. Thank God that well is not spewing oil still though.
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85. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
So much for all that high shear hurrkat was talking about...man could he/she suck any worse at forecasting?


LOL!
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Well it was interesting to read the Doc's blog. That's what I was seeing on the rgb loop. What is also interesting is on the wv loop look how the storm is being squeezed from the west and the east. I think this makes the direction of travel a little tricky the ull in this loop seems to be moving of quickly to the sw this is pushing the better developed thunderstorms to the north so maybe lifting the whole storm a little more north than the track would be imo.
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It looks like it just is trying to get more convention wrapped around itself. If this persist over night, than S.FL will see lots of bad weather.
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Looking at this you'd think Bonnie was hitting old Mexico

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Thx doc!
Thought that ULL was moving faster. Been more bullish than average on this one and continue to be so. Best guess, strong Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 at high speed (20mph) heading just west of NOLA. Very bad for oil situ.
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Time: 20:11:30Z
Coordinates: 21.8N 73.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.0 mb (~ 29.15 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 211 meters (~ 692 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.0 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 159° at 26 knots (From the SSE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)
Dew Pt: 21.4°C (~ 70.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 33.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 37.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr* (~ 0.08 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Latest Rainbow Image

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organized

MOVE WNW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Jim Cantore just tweeted: "TD3 still trying to organize as convective bursts try and wrap around the west side. If that continues system could become a TS quicker."
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
Time: 17:58:00Z
Coordinates: 22.5N 75.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.2 mb (~ 29.27 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 155 meters (~ 509 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.0 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 27° at 32 knots (From the NNE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.7°C (~ 74.7°F)
Dew Pt: 13.7°C (~ 56.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)


and there were many more like that, but no dont show anyone that lol
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Is the ULL the only thing that is forecasted to provide shear in the GOM? What else could possibly inhibit Bonnie once in GOM?
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Does this got Sarasota wrote on it all to you folks?
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Time: 17:58:00Z
Coordinates: 22.5N 75.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.2 mb (~ 29.27 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 155 meters (~ 509 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.0 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 27° at 32 knots (From the NNE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.7°C (~ 74.7°F)
Dew Pt: 13.7°C (~ 56.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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