TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting chrisdscane:
y ignore jeff?

Because he is a northcaster and never has his facts straight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smmcdavid:


Actually earlier today he did say that in this case it would go more west because of something to do with deep steering layers, I think? Just repeating what I read...
In this case, yes if the system gets stronger it would go west. But rule of thumb is that if a system strengthens it will go poleward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think it will be a hurricane because there is too much fuel, the ULL will move onward quickly, the dry air will be gone, and there is plenty of time over open water for it to not go that route. However, I sure hope that the folks in the Keys, Miami, and the oil rig workers are careful and I pray for everyone's safety.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If it comes in east of NOLA would the strong N winds and low tides take some of the deposited oil out to sea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those of you wondering whether Bonnie* will fall apart due to interaction with land, remember that "land interaction" is far different at the tip of Florida than it is in, say, Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic has mountains nearly two miles high, while South Florida's highest spots are a pair of landfills maybe 200 feet high at best...not to mention that the Everglades are basically a hot, wet swamp. Andrew lost little going across them, as did Wilma, and Fay even strengthened. So, unless Bonnie crosses the 'fat' part of the state farther north, don't expect a lot of weakening from any possible overland passage.

At any rate, the CoC appears to be just south of the southern tip of Long Island in the Bahamas.

* - Yes, I am calling her that; if she's not there already, she will be soon. Sue me if I'm wrong. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125469
UGH BAD TRACK! Knew it was coming, but still, ugh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
StonedCrab... most here have Jeff9641 on Ignore... please stop reposting everything he says. TY :o)


I have stoned crab on ignore, so please don't...well, you get my point right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once again, the Cauchy distribution is at work as Hurst used on the Nile River. We have low sunspot activity and warmer than normal temperatures along with La Nina.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
TD 3 may be a good navigator as it aims for the Fla Straits proper.

That;s not good atall.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125469
000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS
EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think he ever said that. A stronger system tracks poleward, however this isn't the case here as the subtropical ridge won't allow it to go as far north as let's say central Florida.


Actually earlier today he did say that in this case it would go more west because of something to do with deep steering layers, I think? Just repeating what I read...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
still a TD at 5pm, Bonnie at 11pm imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wind shear in preventing Bonnie wantabe, any sign of weakening?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update doc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry if this has been addressed. In what way does 98L affect the development and potential intensity of TD3?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125469
Still a TD, going to get stronger though. Track also shifted to the right.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think it will be upgraded at 5. With so many TS wind readings. It's as close to a given as can be.

But still disorganized with shear, and some dry air. I don't see it strengthening rapidly.

But who knows, been wrong before.


Yeah, I am also thinking its quiet likely this will be Bonnie at 5. I see this thing rapidly organizing, shear has done a complete 180 from high to low in the last 24 hours, I am forecasting 60 mph wind tropical storm to 90 mph wind (extreme case scenario) cat. 1 by the time its at the southern end of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys region.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519

Latest pass missed where the low lever circulation is, however winds are at TS force one the eastern side of the circulation, this should be a very disorganized Bonnie at 5p.m
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if some people believed that TD#2 should be named Bonnie, then why TD#3 which is a very more organized system couldn't be named as Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no nrti, these readings occurred after the plane had descended all the way


The plane had just finished descending and in my opinion the readings are not stable.

000
URNT15 KNHC 221751
AF306 02BBA INVEST HDOB 22 20100722
174230 2311N 07549W 6246 04104 0136 +031 -137 066013 014 /// /// 03
174300 2309N 07548W 6517 03760 0140 +052 -124 074013 014 /// /// 03
174330 2307N 07546W 6930 03255 0147 +078 -111 079016 017 /// /// 03
174400 2305N 07545W 7308 02808 0139 +105 -094 068016 016 /// /// 03
174430 2303N 07544W 7588 02495 0143 +123 -078 066021 022 /// /// 03
174500 2301N 07543W 7972 02080 0141 +150 -059 071023 025 /// /// 03
174530 2259N 07542W 8309 01715 0126 +174 -034 076025 026 /// /// 03
174600 2257N 07542W 8500 01532 0133 +182 -045 066028 029 /// /// 03
174630 2258N 07544W 8871 01157 0139 +193 +003 070033 034 /// /// 03
174700 2259N 07543W 9239 00799 0128 +205 +029 062031 031 /// /// 03
174730 2257N 07542W 9538 00509 0116 +219 +047 055032 033 /// /// 03
174800 2256N 07540W 9733 00338 0117 +229 +062 053030 031 /// /// 03
174830 2255N 07539W 9785 00286 0112 +233 +074 053032 033 040 002 03
174900 2254N 07538W 9689 00375 0113 +228 +085 052032 032 039 003 00
174930 2253N 07537W 9765 00302 0110 +234 +094 051032 034 039 002 00
175000 2251N 07536W 9765 00301 0108 +235 +101 048031 032 038 003 00
175030 2250N 07535W 9767 00298 0107 +234 +107 043029 031 037 002 03
175100 2249N 07534W 9772 00293 0107 +235 +113 047032 033 036 003 00
175130 2248N 07533W 9765 00298 0105 +233 +117 045032 033 034 002 03
175200 2246N 07532W 9771 00292 0104 +232 +121 045032 033 035 001 00
$$
;



The other question is how do 10 second peak SFMR winds correlate to 1 minute sustained winds?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
y ignore jeff?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1052
Well, before I head over to Del Mar I'm placing my money on no upgrade at 5PM, but a slight track change north and an extension of the warnings up to Jupiter Inlet.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5456
This one look like Katarina to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I HATE when new people join the blog, it throws things off big time. Especially when they come only to cause trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
StonedCrab... most here have Jeff9641 on Ignore... please stop reposting everything he says. TY :o)
I would say the same thing about Stormtop, but most of you still do it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5 pm in.. 1006 mph 35 mph. Expected to gain 45 knot intensity quicker though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125469
Good afternoon,

TD3........

Looks like it fighting a good fight with the shear....trading punches so to speak!
Looks like it could spin up quickly if given any opportunity to do so. South Florida is in for a treat. Wind gusts up to 60 mph would not be out of the question. Remember what Katrina did and how fast she did it. Very similar area, water temps and shear environment. Only difference, a month earlier.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
A stronger storm is going to track farther to the west according to Storm... I think a strike closer to the TX/LA border is most likely if Bonnie becomes a hurricane.
I don't think he ever said that. A stronger system tracks poleward, however this isn't the case here as the subtropical ridge won't allow it to go as far north as let's say central Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
StonedCrab... most here have Jeff9641 on Ignore... please stop reposting everything he says. TY :o)


I thought Jeff was a meterologist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I started a post, got interrupted then lost it!

So happy Dr Jeff made us a new blog thread...

and sometimes when you are just "lurking" for a while... you see some strange posts around here.

if a new lurker ever stopped by without prior knowledge they would be so confused! LOL


So, I guess those of us here in SE Florida will get wet and some wind...but hopefully not much else...

but I would suggest we watch it all the way...
I cannot tell you how many times they go from a TS to a Cat1 just as they are making landfall and no one is prepared....


Thanks for the good info...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30 minutes - 179 posts. Wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A stronger storm is going to track farther to the west according to Storm... I think a strike closer to the TX/LA border is most likely if Bonnie becomes a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definite socket of dry air to the southeast of the center's convection. However, the environment overall is pretty moist, so I expect this to mix out by tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Recon found loads and loads of TS winds. As soon as they turned on the SFMR over the system it showed 44 mph winds.


they have to be sustained and over a duration not just a one
run deal before they will officially upgrade her.

It really doesnt matter that much anyway because the consenus
is she will certainly eventually be upgraded either late
tonight or tommorrow im guessing.

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
175. myway
Quoting leo305:


there may be absolutely nothing stopping this from erupting tonight


Are you refering to td3 or the blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the ULL and Bonnie are heading basically in the same direction now. Interestingly...if you study the loops....you can detect that the ULL is racing faster wnw than Bonnie. And...Bonnie's ability to get tropical air on the west side is increasing by the hour. If she can carry the ridge with her...

ka-boooom!

cat 3 in da gulf.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txag91met:
Funny how the ECMWF refuses to develop TD#3...but it does have a surface low with through the next 24-48 hours, then loses it in the Gulf. The shear vector is slowly turning from S-N to SE-NW which should keep it together overnight.



Yes and then there is that little system that follows TD3 another 12 or 24 hours after TD3 disappears.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think it will be upgraded at 5. With so many TS wind readings. It's as close to a given as can be.

But still disorganized with shear, and some dry air. I don't see it strengthening rapidly.

But who knows, been wrong before.



lol disorganized look at the first visible today now look at this one lol
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1052
Quoting xcool:
wraping around COC



It can wrap around all it wants but the TS tops are still being blown off by the ULL, = very slow intensification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.