TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 519 - 469

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129411
Quoting reedzone:


I'm only a 21 and a half year old person, who has a passion for tracking storms and writing/composing music. I'm not an expert, maybe in the future.


Well your forecasting is great.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This about says it all

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We might see some quick intensification right before landfall as it will be crossing over the very warm Gulf stream.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening StormW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like TD3 is on track for a south Florida Landfall. System is east of the forecast points. On another note, TD3 is getting better organized, you can see how the system has managed to wrap around convection on the western side on satellite imagery.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Good evening StormW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
5PM EDT advisory coordinates: 22.7°N 75.4°W
Latest lowest pressure reading location: 22.4°N 75.2°W. Apparently 03L moved to the SE.


if you read the NHC advisory it indicates a broad low. The low is still not tight so you will continue to see a group of lowest pressures around a larger than normal area. Based on satellite imagery the coc is located further nw than that 1005.6 reading meaning that the lowest pressure could be found more north of current location or an indication that TD 3 might need more time until it can strengthen much because of a lack of a tight low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
OK STORM I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU...THE ULL OVER SW FLA WHEN BONNIE MOVES INTO THE FLA STRAITS WILL THIS HAVE AND AFFECT ON HOW STRONG BONNIE GETS IF THE ULL MOVES IN CONJUNCTURE WITH BONNIE CAUSING SHEAR...



NOP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


I'm only a 21 and a half year old person, who has a passion for tracking storms and writing/composing music. I'm not an expert, maybe in the future.


21 and a half? I thought halves ended after about 10?! ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lord Of The Rings-Caster!!! darn it, couldn't help myself.......

Quoting NOLALawyer:
This place is like a man, on the verge of death in the desert....being handed a Dixie Cup of water. So desperate for something to track and watch. I can literally wear myself out reading a day's worth of posts here. I can't wait to see it around here when the Eye of Sauron is out at sea and bearing down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Guessing a minimal TS at landfall at this rate of organization. 45mph?

Just doesn't seem to want to get going much - same problem every system has had this year so far.

Take a look at this loop. You can see the ULL moving rapidly west and trying to pull(and shear) 97L in a N.W. direction.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
YOU GUYS NEED TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THAT LLC ITS GOING TO HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON BONNIE NOT BECOMING A HURRICANE....STORM W I CAN'T BELIEVE HE HASN'T SAI ANYTHING ABOUT IT...


And we know plenty of that LLC. Look at the satelite images. And FYI, please type close to grammatically correct. It completely confuses me. AND NO CAPS>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hot tower going boom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


OMG! The world is ending. TS winds found OMG!!!

should south florida evacuate or let the NHC handle the
forecasting for Bonnie/TD3 Hurricanes101?


LMAO!!! They are an excited bunch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129411
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The SFMR was showing 50 mph plus.. flight level winds support a 40 mph TS.


That was in reference to was P451 posted. We shall see what vort message says.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Stare at this real time steering map and you will realize why it's not going north.

CIMSS steering


yet it's still going North west despite that map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



a yelling caster


Just report him.. hopefully admin's pick him up.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting msgambler:
Ya know Pat, not sure if I'm willing to "Take one for the team" so to speak, but these plots don't bode well for the well.


Oil Vey..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129411
498. redUK
The GFS is persistent in keeping that ULL to the north-west of Bonnie.

I have to say that Hurrkat's forecast looks accurate.

Bonnie will be fed shear and dry air until she has made lanfall somewhere in the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon, all! I'm just learning, so tell me if I'm right, please someone?

I'm looking at the Funktop floater and for the first time seeing a bit of green in the center of the red in the area of what I'm assuming is close to the center of circulation. This means cooler temperatures and indicates strengthening. Is that correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evenin Ms. Dais- erm, I mean Mr. Walsh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
YOU GUYS NEED TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THAT LLC ITS GOING TO HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON BONNIE NOT BECOMING A HURRICANE....STORM W I CAN'T BELIEVE HE HASN'T SAI ANYTHING ABOUT IT...



a yelling caster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This place is like a man, on the verge of death in the desert....being handed a Dixie Cup of water. So desperate for something to track and watch. I can literally wear myself out reading a day's worth of posts here. I can't wait to see it around here when the Eye of Sauron is out at sea and bearing down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Hi Storm - models have shifted right. You expect this to continue or possible swing back left?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even I'm alittle surprised this isnt Bonnie.. pressure around 1006mb surface winds near 40mph.. (you have to assume there might be a 2-5mph stronger wind somewhere) this should be a 40mph system...but doesnt matter..its not yet. Also seems to of drifted NNW over the past 1-2hours...but probably a wobble as expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Reeds an expert, as for you, well a downcaster.


I'm only a 21 and a half year old person, who has a passion for tracking storms and writing/composing music. I'm not an expert, maybe in the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I know. Also, the ULL is moving much faster and possibly further to the SE. This could change the models and intensity by the 11PM advisory. Wouldn't expect by much, but that is how this systems are. Notice my earlier post on the models?


No sir I din't. What did it say?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


That goes along with typing in English huh??? oooops

hey thanks for showing this cause i have him/her igored a long time ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the atlantic is as dry as a desert after TD3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Tropical Storm force winds found by recon


OMG! The world is ending. TS winds found OMG!!!

should south florida evacuate or let the NHC handle the
forecasting for Bonnie/TD3 Hurricanes101?
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting Twinkster:
I'm not one to usually stare at satellite imagery however looking at visible imagery it is very interesting to see this system moving NW and being N of forecast points.

If this trend continues it is worrying, however, the NHC did say it will resume wnw later this evening. I will not think the track or cone will shift more north and east unless this continues past the 8 advisory


Stare at this real time steering map and you will realize why it's not going north.

CIMSS steering
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:
460. show a max of 30 kts.


The SFMR was showing 50 mph plus.. flight level winds support a 40 mph TS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting CybrTeddy:
1005.6 mb.. pretty impressive. Looks like this thing's strengthening.



that cant be good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
483. JRRP

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Reeds an expert, as for you, well a downcaster.


LMAO... let's not say things we can't take back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
481. xcool
TD3 WNW .NW temporary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Forward speed may be slowing. The HH found the center of TD3 25 miles SE of the position stated in this 5 pm, 20 minutes later at 5:20 pm Eastern.


Yes, I know. Also, the ULL is moving much faster and possibly further to the SE. This could change the models and intensity by the 11PM advisory. Wouldn't expect by much, but that is how this systems are. Notice my earlier post on the models?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


it's breathing.. the outflow is developing, its about to go boom
I totally agree...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all...made it to the Keys today for our annual vacation...put the boat in at 10:30 this morning and pulling the boat out tonight. Sounds like it won't get too bad, but not taking any chances. Guess we'll have to imbibe and play cards instead of diving:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5PM EDT advisory coordinates: 22.7°N 75.4°W
Latest lowest pressure reading location: 22.4°N 75.2°W. Apparently 03L moved to the SE.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1005.6 mb.. pretty impressive. Looks like this thing's strengthening.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
460. show a max of 30 kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
211800 2247N 07520W 9875 00159 0056 +251 +216 356004 007 020 003 00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
if TD3/Bonnie strengthens she will move in a more W/WNW as she
approaches the coast and the center should stay off the coast.

If she continues to remain weak the steering pattern may
tend further NORTHWEST which may increase the chances for
more of a Florida impact.

I am pretty sure this is the NHC's forecast thinking.

watch for a more W-WNW movement in the next 8
hours or so.



But I was under the impression from all that I have learned here on this blog that as a storm gets stronger, it tends to have a northernly component since it tends to have more of a poleward movement??? Some of the more knowledgeable could clarify this for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
REED YOU NEED TO GET WITH THE PROGRAM


Reeds an expert, as for you, well a downcaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Ya know Pat, not sure if I'm willing to "Take one for the team" so to speak, but these plots don't bode well for the well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 519 - 469

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast