TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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No hot towers.

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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


all in the watch should be paying attention.
without creating hysteria.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCATED ABOUT 250 SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS




old
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Quoting QMiami:
<------ Bal Harbour - i don't see him lol



He's kinda short...look low.
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StormW what's your thoughts on the speed of the ULL?
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I feel like I'm Jim Cantore reporting from the Keys...unfortunately, the blog is popping but my mifi is not. white caps on the bay, but I don't think it's related to the TD-been windy all week I hear.
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Quoting StormW:


POOF?


Oh no, that would be **POOFAY JACK!!!!**
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Sure looks pretty lame, and very small too. Cloud deck is smaller than a lot of typical seabreeze tstorms we get. Only calling for 25mph winds in Dade county. (Whooopeee!) Fine with me though.

(insert opposing comments from youngsters claiming rapid intensifcation to cat1+ here)
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Recent satellite imagery shows the core developing and becoming better established. It doesn't appear that dry air is getting entrained into the system much anymore and that convection has been building where dry air used to be penetrating.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5167
<------ Bal Harbour - i don't see him lol

Quoting gordydunnot:
Cantore sighting Bal Harbor ne Dade on The WC.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Cantore sighting Bal Harbor ne Dade on The WC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Certainly an interesting storm. It likely is a TS but she is having trouble with the dry air. I would guess the small size is helping with organization in the face of shear(earlier) and dry air. If the atmosphere continues to moisten around her the small size should allow her to strengthen much quicker than forecast. I see this as a long shot but wouldn't rule it out. As for track, likely north of forecast but not by much. Still south of Miami.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
rita part 2?



Please don't even think that
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Quoting Jeff9641:
TD3 seems to be defying the NHC's track. MIA to West Palm better watchout.


all in the watch should be paying attention.
without creating hysteria.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCATED ABOUT 250 SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
TD 3 is going over long island in the bahamas
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TropicalDepressionThree was^heading for an AndrosIsland,Bahamas landfall in ~13hours on its way toward BocaRaton,Florida
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 21.9N75.0W, 22.3N74.9W-22.7N75.4W, 22.7N75.4W-24.5N77.7W, 22.7N75.4W-26.3N80.1W, BIX, TAM, 18.5N87W, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD3 had a heading of 310.8degrees (~4.2degrees west of NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 42miles(~68kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~14mph(~23k/h),
and was 191miles(~307kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
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Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
Wow, Storm doesn't Poof anyone, usually.....evening pottery.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
What models will have the information that is being gathered by the hurricane hunters now?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
This place is like a man, on the verge of death in the desert....being handed a Dixie Cup of water. So desperate for something to track and watch. I can literally wear myself out reading a day's worth of posts here. I can't wait to see it around here when the Eye of Sauron is out at sea and bearing down.

Several hundred blind men trying to describe an elephant.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
rita part 2?



yeah, that would be something wouldn't it...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting portcharlotte:


Taz, everyone....we need to get rid of this hurrikat05...he's been on all day. Just an obnoxious brat!!! GET LOST HURRIKAT05!


ITS A SHE
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Quoting FLdewey:
This blog is like teen night at the local skating rink.


Only less organized...
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NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
Quoting StormW:


POOF?



yes i think that would put a good word too put it at
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TD 3 is very close to where Hurricane Katrina formed. This would be a very dangerous situation if that ULL was not present.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



a yelling caster


Taz, everyone....we need to get rid of this hurrikat05...he's been on all day. Just an obnoxious brat!!! GET LOST HURRIKAT05!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Time: 21:18:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7833N 75.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.5 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 159 meters (~ 522 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 356° at 4 knots (From the N at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 25.1°C (~ 77.2°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


This is a very interesting reading... Indicates that the system is moving NNW and strengthening. Saw flight level winds to the ENE of the CoC of 46 mph. Hmmmmm.... Interesting!
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Quoting ElConando:


Well because they round. The previous Vort fix has winds around 33-34mph.


the 10th recon flight for Alex has the pressure at 973mb but top surface winds recorded at only 54mph

That was when Alex was already a hurricane
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rita part 2?

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Quoting ElConando:


He wast talking about the tower of mash potatoes he left out side. It became hot, so it went boom, to the floor.


LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
Best Batten down the curtains,..

er...I mean Hatches,,hatches

Well, curtains too. Especially the plastic ones with fishies........
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Quoting Drakoen:


Time: 21:18:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7833N 75.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.5 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 159 meters (~ 522 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 356° at 4 knots (From the N at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 25.1°C (~ 77.2°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Then these are wrong:

211800 2247N 07520W 9875 00159 0056 +251 +216 356004 007 020 003 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
581. unf97
Quoting Drakoen:


No. The center is located up near 22.8N 75.3W. System continues to move to the NW.


That is about right in terms of the COC position.

The NW movement is lasting a little longer than I thought it would. But, heights are rising just to the N/NW of the cyclone, so I expect the ridge to the north to begin to build in overnight and the system should resume a west - west/northwest motion very shortly.

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317. hurrkat05 8:57 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
YOU NEED TO LISTEN TO ME REED THIS IS JUST GOING TO BE A RAIN MAKER...IF THIS IS NOT A TROPICAL STORM BY 11PM IT WILL NEVER BE...

______________________________

Someone needs a beer and a good nap..lol
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Hey Scottsvb---

What is your take on the system
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A nice blow-up around the COC.

Link
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Quoting StormW:


Looking at the 18Z model runs, I'd say there's pretty good consensus. In fact, the OFCI track looks good. Could be a tad left possibly, but I'll have a better idea once I can check out the updated steering layers later this eve.

18Z STATISTICAL


18Z DYNAMIC

Mind posting the link to the site where you get these?
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NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
Quoting hydrus:
Take a look at this loop. You can see the ULL moving rapidly west and trying(and shearing) 97L in a N.W. direction.Link


I know one thing ... I am seeing less and less of the COC. which could mean one of two things. Intensification or sheer. I will assume for the moment that it is intensification since I am seeing towers going up on this one close to the COC.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting ElConando:


He wast talking about the tower of mash potatoes he left out side. It became hot, so it went boom, to the floor.


no I'm talking about the area of convection erupting near the center of TD 3..

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Quoting Drakoen:


No. The center is located up near 22.8N 75.3W. System continues to move to the NW.

What do you think of the current track Drakoen? Do you feel it will shift more to the east? TIA
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Quoting Patrap:


Watch out Miami! Here it comes!!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



at lest FL is out of the woods un lees you live int he FL keys that is
Am in Key West. Got my Hrricane items Vodka and Cranberry in hand!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.