TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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What ashame. 98L would of been a TS if it had more time over water. Man it looks well organized, looks like a TS.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Everyone in South Florida should be preparing for the possibility of a category 1 hurricane at landfall.


I dunno wouldn't it bend back into the Fla straits at Cat 1? Well better safe then sorry I guess.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Then these are wrong:

211800 2247N 07520W 9875 00159 0056 +251 +216 356004 007 020 003 00


The Lat/Long from the NHC HDOB are in degrees/minutes, and in the decoded message they are decimals. So it's the same number.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa met just said that TD3 was nothing to worry about at all.


Good Met! Will be a rainmaker for extreme SFLA.
windy,with some wave action for the keys but
right now i see nothing to be too concerned
about. Bears' Watching though.
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AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
664. IKE
Good enough for me. Upgrade it NHC. It's a TS!
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662. xcool
Drakoen wow
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Hey Seflhurricane posting 605...how is Long Island faring? we have a little place up by Deals Beach
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I have been lurking, seldom posting, for 6 years here, and very grateful for the info and Dr. Masters and all. Howwever, many people on here have become very MEAN, negative towards each other. Very sad. KARMA folks.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Thats funny.

It was supposed to peak at 50mph.



ooops tell that too TD 3
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Well there it is 45-50mph TS.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Thats funny.

It was supposed to peak at 50mph.


Imagine that.. models wrong again about TD3.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
here you go


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet


We have a 50 mph Tropical Storm Bonnie based on that Vortex Data Message.
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It's official, we have Bonnie, our second named storm of the 2010 Hurricane Season.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
rita part 2?



Don't think so. They seem pretty confident on their track.
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Everyone in South Florida should be preparing for the possibility of a category 1 hurricane at landfall.
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00
URNT12 KNHC 222143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 22/21:18:00Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
075 deg 19 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 069 deg 33 nm
F. 111 deg 43 kt
G. 068 deg 34 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 25 C / 211 m
J. 25 C / 210 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 02BBA INVEST OB 18
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 21:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
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Bonnie anyone? Pressure down to 1005mb; winds at 50mph.

000
URNT12 KNHC 222143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 22/21:18:00Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
075 deg 19 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 069 deg 33 nm
F. 111 deg 43 kt
G. 068 deg 34 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 25 C / 211 m
J. 25 C / 210 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 02BBA INVEST OB 18
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 21:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
This is a good idea of what TD3 or Bonnie will look like. It will probably look even better than Ernesto.

Ernesto from 2006
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Thats funny.

It was supposed to peak at 50mph.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Doesn't the NHC look for constinency? I remember someone earlier saying that they don't give status to a storm according to one reading. However, I have also heard of alot of TS wind reports.


that reading is from the vortex message itself
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
we have Bonnie

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)


Doesn't the NHC look for constinency? I remember someone earlier saying that they don't give status to a storm according to one reading. However, I have also heard of alot of TS wind reports.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
we have Bonnie

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)


Yup
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hey guys read be low


Quoting Tazmanian:
here you go


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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Sitting here in the Keys, theres not an upper level cloud in site only a couple of low cumulus over Hawk Channel. Strange for having an approaching storm.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Hurrikat05 is a she! Well I would call it a "thing", not human just something you need to swat away like a mosquito.. Didn't her mom teach her any manners? I hope admin swats this thing out of this blog!!


StormTop's a girl?
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50 mph TS?

SFMR just caught a 51mph reading.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TD/03/L
MARK
22.4N/75.3W


I don't know, seems to be coming together to me.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
we have Bonnie

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)




read post 628
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Just updated from the HH


Time: 21:42:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7167N 74.6167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.2 mb (~ 29.18 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 181 meters (~ 594 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.9 mb (~ 29.79 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 38 knots (From the SE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 26.0°C (~ 78.8°F)
Dew Pt: 22.2°C (~ 72.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots* (~ 43.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect dat
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Mother Nature is mad at BP and Lebron, obviously.
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Vortex SFMR shows 51.8 mph.. we have Bonnie.
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634. xcool
ULL is moving away fast
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting portcharlotte:
Hurrikat05 is a she! Well I would call it a "thing", not human just something you need to swat away like a mosquito.. Didn't her mom teach her any manners? I hope admin swats this thing out of this blog!!


GOODBYE HURRKAT
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Ok so I am 37 weeks pregnant..... when is this storm planning on being in the N. Gulf of Mexico? I know the low pressure can play a part in inducing labor. Just curious.
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we have Bonnie

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
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here you go


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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TD/03/L
MARK
22.4N/75.3W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
"Quoting Tazmanian:
rita part 2?"

I've seen it all now! GEE WHIZ
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Grothar or Storm: what model runs will have the information the hurricane hunters are currently gathering?

Could someone post a graphic that shows how the ull is pulling away? I understand the concept but am not seeing it on the pics.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Recent satellite imagery shows the core developing and becoming better established. It doesn't appear that dry air is getting entrained into the system much anymore and that convection has been building where dry air used to be penetrating.
hey cchsweatherman i think TD 3 will be upgraded at 8Pm HH are finding TS winds on the current pass near long island ??? your thoughts
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Tampa met just said that TD3 was nothing to worry about at all.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Hurrikat05 is a she! Well I would call it a "thing", not human just something you need to swat away like a mosquito.. Didn't her mom teach her any manners? I hope admin swats this thing out of this blog!!
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Quoting FormerTigergirl:


Please don't even think that


love that cat picture......that is how I feel with most of these storms....trying to figure them out. :)
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No hot towers.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.