TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:
Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??



at lest some on now what am talking about
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting TampaSpin:


I'm not sure i agree with the Decoupled Center your saying...i believe it was just an illusion.......i just looked at the latest Satellite loops and i don't see the Decoupled Center your saying.......i might be wrong but, i don't see it sorry!


SHEESH!
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Quoting reedzone:
Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??


that is where the nhc has it as of that update at 615pm
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1015. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
before this day is done a hurricane it may become
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i see vary deep t-storms this storm is doing vary well now





if there is a new center poping up then it would under that big red ball
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
1013. NASA101
Quoting reedzone:
Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??

No it hasn't! Unless you are wish casting! LMAO!!
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This blog is about to go nuts!
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1011. IKE
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.
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Update
97L becomes Tropical Storm Bonnie, 7/22/10 btw Pat, your in my update if you don't mind. ;)
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A storm off the s. fl coast that crosses the gulf stream I don't believe I have ever seen one loss strength but the great majority strengthen and sometimes very quickly. Hope this one stays as is, getting some nice rain already in N.E. Dade home of Cantore for right now. Come on now there has to be some good accommodations down there in the Keys.
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Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7365
1007. Patrap








Hurricane Preparation 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1006. est1986
Ugh, is it not gonna come to louisiana now?
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1005. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Bonnie looks very disorganized. A decoupled center for sure. Good eye CCHS.

I Disagree. I don't think Bonnie looks horrible.
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i see vary deep t-storms this storm is doing vary well now

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting CaneWarning:
Bonnie looks very disorganized. A decoupled center for sure. Good eye CCHS.


I'm not sure i agree with the Decoupled Center your saying...i believe it was just an illusion.......i just looked at the latest Satellite loops and i don't see the Decoupled Center your saying.......i might be wrong but, i don't see it sorry!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
If you take a good look at the RGB Satellite Loop and zoom into the center, you can make out that the low level circulation has become exposed under high level cloud debris just south of the deep convection produced by the mid level center moving NW. Seems like decoupling may have just taken place which would hurt development.


I opined several times today that the LLC was gonna become exposed. It appeared to me to be on the verge of happening all afternoon.
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Quoting scott39:
Why has Bonnie lost alot of her convection?
Bonnie has not the wave has developed a closed low and is getting its act together or at least trying to looking rather healthy at last glance
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Quoting futuremet:


Overstatement?


Nope, just more unnecessary sarcasm
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Cantore on world news all hyped up.
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She seems to be right on nhc track. . . NW to Andros Island (spelling ?), then it should turn more wnw as predicted. Now, if it shoots over or past the island, well, then we have to see when it makes the turn and how severe a turn.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
LEVI I BEEN SAYING THE SAME THING ALL DAY ABOUT THE ULL AFFECTING BONNIE KEEPING HER FROM HURRICANE STRENGTH....IM GLAD SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS IT IN HERE....




oops looks ohs back lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting cchsweatherman:
If you take a good look at the RGB Satellite Loop and zoom into the center, you can make out that the low level circulation has become exposed under high level cloud debris just south of the deep convection produced by the mid level center moving NW. Seems like decoupling may have just taken place which would hurt development.


It still seems to be underneath the convection.
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Quoting futuremet:


Overstatement?


More like a sarcastic statement.


I see we have Bonnie... Wow. Went to marching band practice with a 40% chance. WTH?
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Atmosweather... This is the Southern Brevard County point forecast for Melbourne (SE of Orlando)... Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Windy, with a east wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Exactly...and here's the forecast for my area of Orlando:

Friday: Isolated thunderstorms, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Windy, with a east northeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I agree with you

MLC looks to be headed north, LLC NW


the center may be relocating there.. as that is were the strongest vortocity is..

are the Hurricane hunters headed back into the storm?
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Im out.

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989. xcool
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Quoting patrikdude2:
stop what? i posted picture of bonie asking if the center was in the circle i drew. The other pic showed bonie for ppl who didn't know its exact location and the official wording that it became a tropical storm officially. I've proven my pictures and very beautiful. Thank you very mach for comment.
Looks like I can expect much rain later tonight!




ok then you may keep posting it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yeah, waiting on that too Jeff... probably at 8pm or 11pm.


Jeff... you make me laugh mate!! When you have a consensus of almost all models like we have with Bonnie then no amount of Miami casting will work!
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
I have been eyeing that midlevel circulation for a few hours now. Really think there might be another llc relocation underway. I don't know why everyone is bashing jeff. The storm has been well north of the model consensus and official track all day. TS watch to sebastian inlet at 11 isn't all that unreasonable of a statement is it? I still like a miami landfall myself.
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Quoting futuremet:


Overstatement?


I'm just making fun of the people who are making a big deal out of this little storm.
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If you take a good look at the RGB Satellite Loop and zoom into the center, you can make out that the low level circulation has become exposed under high level cloud debris just south of the deep convection produced by the mid level center moving NW. Seems like decoupling may have just taken place which would hurt further development.
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Quoting xcool:



that wind shear map is off
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting Tazmanian:



plz stop with that
stop what? i posted picture of bonie asking if the center was in the circle i drew. The other pic showed bonie for ppl who didn't know its exact location and the official wording that it became a tropical storm officially. I've proven my pictures and very beautiful. Thank you very mach for comment.
Looks like I can expect much rain later tonight!
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Quoting scott39:
If Bonnie was Very disorganized, She wouldnt have just got NAMED!!



vary ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Will we get another "new blog" today? That'd hafta be some kinda record!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Bonnie continues to build north. Seems a relocation to the NE is happening now. West Palm beach are you are not out of the woods. I suspect with these movement we will see watches and warnings extended to the Space Coast.


Maybe east coast after that. NOT!
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Quoting centralflaman:
I just want to make sure that everyone didn`t miss any of the 100s of post stating that we have BONNIE now!! roflmao


Not to be confused with the many posts yesterday telling us that 97L was dead, dead, dead.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
975. xcool
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Bonnie looks very disorganized. A decoupled center for sure. Good eye CCHS.
If Bonnie was Very disorganized, She wouldnt have just got NAMED!!
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Get ready this one is going to ramp up quickly! We could see horribly devastating 45 mph winds in the Miami area in a worst case scenario.


Overstatement?
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Quoting redUK:
There is a difference of about 50 miles between the lower level spin and the mid level spin.

This storm is not vertically stacked yet and may never be...



The difference was more than 150 miles up until this morning. It has already become much better organized thanks to the reformation of the LLC as the old low level spin crashed towards Cuba earlier today. If the ULL maintains it's present movement it will continue to become more vertically stacked since shear is lessening and upper level ridging is developing aloft.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
TS/03L/B
MARK
22.9N/74.5W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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