TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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ULL moving away faster. Might see some more development if it can start wrapping convection around it , and slow down it forward speed as it allows it to absorb less and less shear because at the moment shear is weakening in its current position.
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I'm gonna take a break until about 7 or 7:30. Be back then. Need to go rest my eyes. lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Uhh it sets in the west no matter what direction you're facing. It sets to the left of you if you are facing the north pole though lol.


It was a joke lol
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with RI a forecast tracks would change right? uhhm
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6) IKE will say something priceless.....LOL

Quoting IKE:
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


only if you are facing the north pole lmao


Uhh it sets in the west no matter what direction you're facing. It sets to the left of you if you are facing the north pole though lol.
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Ike 5 for 5 but please stay alive.
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50 new posts in 5 minutes....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
before this day is done a hurricane it may become


You think? Cause, when I see someone like you make a statement like that, I tend to pay a bit more attention and the little hairs stand up on the back of my neck! ;)
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1059. IKE
Quoting est1986:
Hell yeah i want it to come here...


Honest-caster.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1058. redUK
Quoting Neapolitan:


I've zoomed in as closely as possible, and have looked at other images, too...and I have to say I don't see what it is you're seeing.


Use this site: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Click on visible, animated, 90% quality, 20 frames and click on the bahamas on the map..

Speed up image. The are two vortices that are separate.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Is everyone Rapid Intensification-casting now???



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1056. leo305


if the center reforms further north again, it will be out of the cone once again, and the general motion is still WNW/NW
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Quoting whs2012:
What do you think will happen with the computer models on the next update?! Lol

They're probably gonna shift to the right
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Is everyone Rapid Intensification-casting now???
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well you all wanted too no what a hurricane will do too the oil looks like where about too find out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting Patrap:
Im down to 1 Fresca.
And you preach preparedness...pffffft
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1051. est1986
Hell yeah i want it to come here...
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The interesting thing to note is the between the 5pm advisory and the 615p Special Advisory... it gained .2N Latitude and .0W Longitude... practically due north
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1049. IKE
Quoting stormhank:
LOL IKE...anyways u see much weather for us here in panhandle from Bonnie Ike??


Gettin a little dry...we could use some rain off of it and may get a little.


Quoting Kristina40:


Haha Ike, you forgot the sun will set in the West tonight.


And rise in the east tomorrow...lol!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting animalrsq:


Thought I could get through this without opening my mouth but...I have to agree with you.

Most are here to learn BUT please just read all posts for several hours and you'll learn more and know what questions to ask! You'll know who is giving good info like StormW, Tampa, Drak, Pat and many others. Seeing the same questions and confusion 100 (1000) times a day - surface vs. flight level, mph vs. kts, do strong or weaker storms go north....

Nothing wrong with posting questions if you can't find the answers but the majority are answered ad nauseum on here during the course of a day. Just take the time to read and learn.

Back to lurking...


I, too am mainly a lurker, but felt compelled to post. The info found here seems to be more current than the NHC, which was why I started coming here. I have learned a lot for the last three years. If you read the posts here for a while, you'll learn who are the intelligent ones, and who aren't. I, for one appreciate the people who take time to to offer their expertise.
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1047. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


only if you are facing the north pole lmao


Err..Im facing the South Pole at 30N presently and it still sets to my right or..


WEST.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
I have to agree Bonnie is organizing, yes it did look like it briefly like the center was getting away from the mlc, but i think that the reforming has begun also, or its at least getting back together.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
May be wrong regarding the observation I made earlier, but its what my eyes that have been on a computer screen all afternoon has seen. lol


Eye-caster!
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Just saw Dr. Masters on ABC news..ha now I have a voice to go with the face! Looks like Bonnie will go nw then get pushed more wnw by the high...this correct? We for sure do not need any more rain here in Houston, mosquitoes are finally starting to disappear!
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1042. xcool
Tazmanian .yea bigtime.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting IKE:
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.


Now there are some predictions I'll buy into...
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there is a high ch of this be comeing a hurricane be for 1st land fall
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1039. Patrap
Im down to 1 Fresca.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Hmmm, could losing the LLC and working on the well defined MLC in the middle of all of the convection actually be quicker than the stacking the circulations again..? If what the loops are showing is a decoupling of course. Maybe it will be.
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Quoting Kristina40:


Haha Ike, you forgot the sun will set in the West tonight.


only if you are facing the north pole lmao
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1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L/TS/B/CX
MARK
22.9N/74.5W
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000
WTNT63 KNHC 222222
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED HEADER TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


Evening all.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Seriously?



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1033. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting IKE:
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.
Wow, thought that was another poll till I didn't see an option for all the above...LOL
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Quoting IKE:
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.
LOL IKE...anyways u see much weather for us here in panhandle from Bonnie Ike??
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Quoting IKE:
People making all of these predictions. I'll make a few...

(1)I'll be a day older tomorrow.
(2)I'll eat food in the next 24 hours.
(3)I'll drink Coke in the next 12 hours.
(4)I'll die one day.
(5)HURRKAT05 WILL COME BACK ON HERE POSTING IN CAPS.


Haha Ike, you forgot the sun will set in the West tonight.
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doc was just on abc world new tonight,just as forecast!!!,lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Forget all the "HYPE" This is what is expected in case you
live in South Florida.

Everyone Take Care and be safe!

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Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised to rapid intensification




me tooo gulf is out has a bath tub
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting reedzone:
Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??
So it is shifting North?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




ok then you may keep posting it

Thank you, but there is no need to post it again now since i already posted each twice, i imagine people can "see" it.
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May be wrong regarding the observation I made earlier, but its what my eyes that have been on a computer screen all afternoon has seen. lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
before this day is done a hurricane it may become


Seriously?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
before this day is done a hurricane it may become



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
1021. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised to rapid intensification
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting cchsweatherman:
If you take a good look at the RGB Satellite Loop and zoom into the center, you can make out that the low level circulation has become exposed under high level cloud debris just south of the deep convection produced by the mid level center moving NW. Seems like decoupling may have just taken place which would hurt further development.


I've zoomed in as closely as possible, and have looked at other images, too...and I have to say I don't see what it is you're seeing.
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Quoting reedzone:
Center appears to have reformed in the convective burst.. 22.9N; 75.4W??



at lest some on now what am talking about
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.