TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
New recon pass shows the low-level center moving west of the previous vortex message and weaker....mid-level center decoupling northeast of it with the convective burst. NW motion cannot be sustained in this situation which is why the models taking this into central Florida were ridiculous. This may still clip through very southern Florida but it may have a shot still at the straights as well. Bonnie is not strengthening right now.



Thanks for the analysis, Levi. Is it possible that the MLC will take over though?
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1118. Patrap



TS Bonnie Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Where's Clyde ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1117. leo305
Quoting ACEhigh:
levi, you boy joey b seems to disagree re a more northerly track.What exactly makes you think that the decoupling isn't another llc relocation under the convection and mid level vort max?


because the hurricane hunters found the center west of the mid level low, and moving more westerly..

the convection is becoming cymetrical but over the mid level spin..

while the center is beginning to move more WNW right now away from the heavy convection, could indicate weakening.. the question is whether or not the center can be sucked into that convection, or a new one can form, I guess the high to the north may not allow it.
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1116. hydrus
Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised to rapid intensification
The further north it goes, the more strength it can gain....Better outflow...jmo
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Not that many people will care, but for those of you who think that this is an opportunity for the smart alec comments, you are doing a disservice for the others who are coming here to get real information.

I think its a shame that a blog that has been known for being on top of the game has degenerated to the stupidity of those who don't have anything better to do.

And no, they are not all teenagers.
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Quoting muddertracker:
What's the over/under for the # of times Bonnie is compared to Katrina over the next 12 hours?



Unfortunately true. Bonnie is pathetic looking compared to Katrina at this point. Katrina was much larger with a lot more organized convection at this point. She also wasn't fighting shear and dry air. If Bonnie were anywhere but on Florida's front yard you wouldn't be hearing RI talk.
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Is it possible that this system is capable of growing stronger, possibly into a minimal hurricane before reaching S.FL? Or even a Strong TS?
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Quoting Levi32:
New recon pass shows the low-level center moving west of the previous vortex message and weaker....mid-level center decoupling northeast of it with the convective burst. NW motion cannot be sustained in this situation which is why the models taking this into central Florida were ridiculous. This may still clip through very southern Florida but it may have a shot still at the straights as well. Bonnie is not strengthening right now.



Um that's what the nhc said at the 5 and it strengthened.. lol
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1110. ACEhigh
levi, you boy joey b seems to disagree re a more northerly track.What exactly makes you think that the decoupling isn't another llc relocation under the convection and mid level vort max?
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Quoting newportrinative:


Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain.


Well I recall The Weather Channel said 20-30 MPH winds and some heavy rainfall of over 2 inches???
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1108. scott39
I have very little Knowledge of how forecasting TCS work! I have learned a vauble piece of it though. I asked StormW a couple of days about wind shear effecting Bonnie.He showed me a water Vapor map and I learned what a ULL looked like, and how it caused wind shear on Bonnie. Then there was one of the best models(EURO) that said the ULL would run in tandum with it and keep it from being much. That didnt happen! My point is when there is a Tropical Cyclone threating land, Dont get focused on every model run because WEATHER can change faster than any MODEL! Be prepared and be safe!
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Quoting whs2012:


It's raining now lol.


Stop reminding me! lol. So odd for us to have so little days of full sun during the summer...I mean a seabreeze shower now and then but nothing like what we have had in the last month or so.
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My appologies to CCHS for his brilliant observation of what i guess is a decupled System.....Sorry CCHS!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting jacechase:
is it me or does the outflow look to be establishing itself in the sw quad???
i believe it is the shear the ULL is leaving behind as it moves WSW. thats just my opinion, though. As ULL moves WSW the counterclockwise spin causes the wind shear to go NE making it appear as a outflow of bonnie. Thank you
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
here come invest 99L DOWN THE ROAD..



nop it will go poof this like all the other wave have
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
More Joe.


THURSDAY 6:00 PM
OVER REACTION TO THE DEPRESSION?

A state of emergency has been declared in Louisiana.

Again I dont believe this is a big deal there. The system that was causing heavy thunderstorms after Alex was a bigger deal than this will be. Again, this should head into Florida and when it comes out into the gulf, its probably not going to deepen. The forecast remains as earlier.

All this is going to do is add to the list of things that were going to happen with this spill ( remember, oil up the beaches in a month last month) and cause people to scream mets re crying wolf

We will see.

The depression has moved north northwest the past 3 hours is already up near 23 north. Pressure is 1005 with 45kt surface winds and by all rights, its a storm. But its also heading for FLA.

ciao for now ****


I don't think it is. Have they fixed the levies? Even if it comes in as a weak Hurricane it could cause major problems, especially carrying oil inland with it.
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Quoting NASA101:
Accuweather 5pm CST forecast call for a landfall right on the TX/LA border!
Which is weird cos their more respected forecaster Bastardi thinks this is going more north and into the Panhandle of FL...!!

I'm shooting for the Alabama coast
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Quoting hurricaneben:
Can my area in Boca Raton, Florida get tropical storm conditions?


Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Lol i live in boca raton Florida.

Doubt TD3 will make landfall here.
There's only been 1 time when I guessed at a landfall. I called Katrina's first landfall in North Miami Beach. With Bonnie, I'm making my second call. Landfall in Boca.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
RIP Bonnie?



RIP Caster
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Quoting NASA101:
Accuweather 5pm CST forecast call for a landfall right on the TX/LA border!
Which is weird cos their more respected forecaster Bastardi thinks this is going more north and into the Panhandle of FL...!!


wow, very different opinions....
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
50 new posts in 5 minutes....


God forbid ya go to the bathroom or go have a smoke. Ya have to start all over again, lol. Forget going back 50 to 100 posts.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
RIP Bonnie?
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My Bonnie lies over the Ocean,
My Bonnie lies over the Sea,
My Bonnie lies over the Ocean,
I wonder what She'll bring to me!

I am in Naples. The question is, do I pull in the lanai furniture or not?

TIA,
mostly a lurker,
but been here since Charley or Wilma... can't really remember that far back.

ps... sorry for the song, I couldn't resist.
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bonnie is looking good mid and llc are abit apart but a general nw motion is for sure she wont pass thru the straits of fl look for watches//warnings extended north both east and west sides of fl as of 8pm The ull seems to b getting the heck out of the way but dry air will still slow bonnie abit Just a thought!
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1091. Levi32
000
URNT12 KNHC 222240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 22/22:26:10Z
B. 22 deg 45 min N
075 deg 35 min W

C. NA
D. 32 kt
E. 094 deg 29 nm
F. 164 deg 34 kt
G. 091 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 25 C / 214 m
J. 25 C / 221 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 02BBA INVEST OB 21
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 21:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
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Can my area in Boca Raton, Florida get tropical storm conditions?
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1089. NASA101
Accuweather 5pm CST forecast call for a landfall right on the TX/LA border!
Which is weird cos their more respected forecaster Bastardi thinks this is going more north and into the Panhandle of FL...!!
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What's the over/under for the # of times Bonnie is compared to Katrina over the next 12 hours?

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If everyone would hit the minus sign for a bad post it would eliminate of a lot of posting at this time...i have been doing it and it works really well...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
is it me or does the outflow look to be establishing itself in the sw quad???
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More Joe.


THURSDAY 6:00 PM
OVER REACTION TO THE DEPRESSION?

A state of emergency has been declared in Louisiana.

Again I dont believe this is a big deal there. The system that was causing heavy thunderstorms after Alex was a bigger deal than this will be. Again, this should head into Florida and when it comes out into the gulf, its probably not going to deepen. The forecast remains as earlier.

All this is going to do is add to the list of things that were going to happen with this spill ( remember, oil up the beaches in a month last month) and cause people to scream mets re crying wolf

We will see.

The depression has moved north northwest the past 3 hours is already up near 23 north. Pressure is 1005 with 45kt surface winds and by all rights, its a storm. But its also heading for FLA.

ciao for now ****
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1084. unf97
Quoting PtownBryan:
Just saw Dr. Masters on ABC news..ha now I have a voice to go with the face! Looks like Bonnie will go nw then get pushed more wnw by the high...this correct? We for sure do not need any more rain here in Houston, mosquitoes are finally starting to disappear!


Yes, that is correct in what Dr. Masters pointed out.

I think Andros Island is the point where I think it will go farthest north. If for some reason Bonnie moves north of Andros Island, then watches will have to be posted a little farther up the coast, but this scenario I think is unlikely.

I am expecting the turn to W-W/NW to happen in the next few hours. Heights are rising just north and northwest of the cyclone, indicating that ridge is building in.
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1083. Levi32
New recon pass shows the low-level center moving west of the previous vortex message and weaker....mid-level center decoupling northeast of it with the convective burst. NW motion cannot be sustained in this situation which is why the models taking this into central Florida were ridiculous. This may still clip through very southern Florida but it may have a shot still at the straights as well. Bonnie is not strengthening right now.

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Hurricane Local Statement for BONNIE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTUS82 KTBW 222243
HLSTBW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
643 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND ENGLEWOOD...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 615 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 480
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST
OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE AROUND 40
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND
ENGLEWOOD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN AROUND 12 AM EDT FRIDAY...OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.




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Quoting Hurricanes101:


It was a joke lol


Ok lol.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
before this day is done a hurricane it may become


Yoda!
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Regardles of the exact path, South Florida is in for a lot of rain. The majority of the weather seems to be on the North side of the circulation.
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You know all,

I am not buying all the north forecasting...but I have to admit looking at the visible (which we are going to lose soon), that the center relocation to the NNE is possible.
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1076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting biloxidaisy:


You think? Cause, when I see someone like you make a statement like that, I tend to pay a bit more attention and the little hairs stand up on the back of my neck! ;)
things can happen we have till midnight for the end of this day once the sun set it will commence the feed of the water and that water is like high octane and is very capable
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Quoting msgambler:
And you preach preparedness...pffffft
Now that was funny...anchors aweigh
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1072. IKE
Quoting Goldenblack:
6) IKE will say something priceless.....LOL



LOL.

90.5 here in the Florida panhandle.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1071. Dakster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
before this day is done a hurricane it may become


No offense, but I hope you are wrong.
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During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


the Admins will be in banneding mod has of right now so watch what you post and say
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ULL moving away faster. Might see some more development if it can start wrapping convection around it , and slow down it forward speed as it allows it to absorb less and less shear because at the moment shear is weakening in its current position.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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