TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting extreme236:
I mean, Cane isn't exactly wrong...Bonnie is guaranteed to eventually die out (NHC forecast calls for this in around 5 days).


Thank you. I am perfectly in line with the NHC.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
winds are picking up in Boca as we speak

Quoting newportrinative:
1180. pilotguy1 11:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
"Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain."

Oooh that's scary.


Jeez, pilotguy1, wasn't saying it was scary, just responding to someone asking if they would be getting tropic storm winds in Boca....
Gave them the forecast for where I live, south of Boca as a point of reference.

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LEVI WELL SAID I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS SINCE 1PM...I COULDNT BELIEVE EVEN DR MASTERS HAD THIS BEING A HURRICANE..BONNIE WILL BE NO MORE THEN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM..I DONT THINK THEY NEEDED TO SHUT DOWN OPERATIONS IN THE GOM THEY JUMPED THE GUN AND ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE FOOLS..

This post has been made by somebody who knows NOTHING about SAFETY and cares NOTHING about safety. The poster obviously understands NOTHING about offshore deepwater safety. We have already seen the Beyond Pathetic consequences of such bravado and macho thinking.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


wow, very different opinions....


OK. Local ch 12 guy is about to blow a gasket that the models are taking this strait into a ridge of high pressure says they should shift left. Who knows. But at least all the locals said we are in the cone and need to pay attention. Just in case. Havn't heard that from anyone else today.
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1214. Levi32
Quoting whs2012:
StormW or anyone,

What's the chances of SE Texas experiencing Tropical Storm force winds? Rain?


If Bonnie gets that far west, it's possible she could remain a tropical storm, but it's also possible she could degenerate back into an open wave. Either way, gusty winds and heavy rains would be likely wherever she comes ashore.
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Quoting rossclick:
seems like a center relocation or something is going on
Yep farther north
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I mean, Cane isn't wrong...Bonnie is guaranteed to eventually die out (NHC forecast calls for this in around 5 days).
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Quoting RufusBaker:
WHO CARES ABOUT 98L




we do and may be MX dos
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1180. pilotguy1 11:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
"Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain."

Oooh that's scary.


Jeez, pilotguy1, wasn't saying it was scary, just responding to someone asking if they would be getting tropic storm winds in Boca....
Gave them the forecast for where I live, south of Boca as a point of reference.

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1209. NASA101
Quoting pilotguy1:
"Are you watching your local news? That's all they are talking about now.
I'm in Broward and they are saying 25-35 mph winds w/ 2" - 4" of rain."

Oooh that's scary.


How is 30 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain scary! You get that in a afternoon thunderstorms LMAO!! Over dramatic...!!!
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1208. Patrap
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using SWAN) Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Definitely taking a punch tonight.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
WHO CARES ABOUT 98L
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Some people here have no sense of humor apparently...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
100% guarantee huh? Must be God we are talking to here...


Yes, I can 100% guarantee you that one day Bonnie will be RIP. Something will kill it. You can take it to the bank.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
seems like a center relocation or something is going on
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Last comment for Bonnie then I'll leave to the experts. It's been fighting the usual ull problem all along llc ie being pushed west by high pressure, ull is pushing everything else northward, that's why center keeps shifting northward. But it looks to me about 1 more degree n. and it's going to head wnw to west and this will be when it is most likely to intensify.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


The storm will RIP. I can 100% guarantee it. One way or another it will RIP.
100% guarantee huh? Must be God we are talking to here...
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1199. unf97
98L running out of time over water to develop over the BOC.
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1196. Michfan
Its because half of the new bloggers here don't know what they hell they are talking about and don't have enough sense to respect those who do. Just either ignore them or hit the minus sign next to their posts. It helps to filter the drivel that some of these amateurs put out.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
yea extreme, this blog has gone to crap today, so many inaccurate posts


decoupling of a system does not automatically mean the system is going to die out


The blog is a joke these days. I miss the old old days.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
i hop the Admin is on the ball and start handing out 24hr banneds
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1192. Patrap
Quoting jacechase:
i see that patrap, do you think its going to get sheared again?


TS Bonnie is relaxing that earlier Momentum a tad ,and were seeing the System tonight undergoing a lil reorganization as it Slides Wnw to NW.

The Envelope is on Guidance as the Inner vortex waxes and wanes some. But that ULL is separating at a good clip.

Best to stay up on this one.

The Track is well figured so far,but intensity most seasoned followers of wu-ism know,..isnt.

Get the Phase one of your plan together tomorrow and top off cars,and supplies.

Thats my Plan..

Also were Having the NOLA Portlight Art,And Rummage and Stuff Sale here too.


So Ill be off and on with that.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Quoting Patrap:
One can see the Ridge building in from the East in the Upper Right.

TS Bonnie Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Patrap is it just a matter of timing. That ridge is gonna force Bonnie to start heading westnorthwest through the night?
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:

Hope that poof wasn't for me Taz...


No, it was for me I think. LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
winds starting to pick up in West Boca Raton Ghetto
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:

Hope that poof wasn't for me Taz...




nop for CaneWarning
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yea extreme, this blog has gone to crap today, so many inaccurate posts


decoupling of a system does not automatically mean the system is going to die out
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
1174. CaneWarning 11:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

yea in 5 days when it hits the northern Gulf coast lol


Yes, land does that to storms.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Tazmanian:
1161. CaneWarning 11:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Local Met just said that it is now officially Tropical Storm Bonnie per the HH



Old news, and the center is de-coupled. RIP Bonnie. It's just a matter of time before this storm is RIP one way or another.



POOF

Hope that poof wasn't for me Taz...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
1161. CaneWarning 11:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Local Met just said that it is now officially Tropical Storm Bonnie per the HH



Old news, and the center is de-coupled. RIP Bonnie. It's just a matter of time before this storm is RIP one way or another.



POOF

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Carribbean

Still There.... Not any more decoupled than its been most of the day...
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1183. Levi32
Quoting mcluvincane:


Read doc M's blog Levi. Even he is giving 40% of hurricane. Not buy your analyses


I don't have to agree with the good Doctor. You don't have to agree with me either. I'm just giving my opinion.
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1174. CaneWarning 11:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

yea in 5 days when it hits the northern Gulf coast lol
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This could only be a temporary problem in the near term, it's hard to say.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
LEVI WELL SAID I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS SINCE 1PM...I COULDNT BELIEVE EVEN DR MASTERS HAD THIS BEING A HURRICANE..BONNIE WILL BE NO MORE THEN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM..I DONT THINK THEY NEEDED TO SHUT DOWN OPERATIONS IN THE GOM THEY JUMPED THE GUN AND ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE FOOLS..



your the one being a fool they shut down for safey it is its olny a 35mph TD they shut down


plzs down yelling



yelling caster
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1178. NASA101
Lot of people are talking so much CRAP here, it's just unreal...especially the new bloggers! The integrity of this once great tropical blog has gone south in my judgment!!
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Quoting Levi32:


It means that south Florida still doesn't need to be concerned for anything more than weak tropical storm conditions, which is still a big deal but not a highly dangerous situation. Bonnie will probably weaken in the gulf and never become more than what she is now, a solid TS but on the low side.


Read doc M's blog Levi. Even he is giving 40% of hurricane. Not buy your analyses
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Link
I keep seeing it go further N than projected. Are my eyes playing tricks on me? IMO S tip of Fla or S dade give or take 30 miles.....
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Loop this......it shows the ULL how it is still moving West

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/index.php?region=gulf&channel=wv



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Quoting Hurricanes101:
1161. CaneWarning 11:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

decoupling doesnt automatically mean the system will die, there are a number of things that can happen from this point on

stop trying to get a reaction out of people


The storm will RIP. I can 100% guarantee it. One way or another it will RIP.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
If it has really decoupled it could be curtains. It will certainly should eliminate FL hurricane talk. If it hasn't it is still a pitiful looking TS. Very impressive that she has been able to form in such hostile conditions but still pretty ugly.
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#1118 Paptrap....LOL. It would have been to funny if the C storm after Bonnie was Clyde. The guys at NWC don't have enough of a sense of humor.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
My appologies to CCHS for his brilliant observation of what i guess is a decupled System.....Sorry CCHS!


No need to apologize Tampa. This is what makes forecasting so interesting. We all have different observations and experience. Unlike many here, I'm not here for recognition. I'm here to learn and to help others learn since I have an intense passion for weather, especially tropical weather.
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Jindal declaring a state of emergency for Louisiana is better than doing nothing at all, like his predecessor
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Quoting Tazmanian:
1161. CaneWarning 11:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Local Met just said that it is now officially Tropical Storm Bonnie per the HH



Old news, and the center is de-coupled. RIP Bonnie. It's just a matter of time before this storm is RIP one way or another.



POOF


LOL Did Taz just poof me?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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