TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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1269. Patrap

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Tropical Storm Bonnie!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1267. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2010 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 22:53:22 N Lon : 75:39:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.3 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -31.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.40 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 23:40:48 N Lon: 74:39:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im 40 miles from the center of bonnie not much
moisture. Wind 25KNT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This blog has lost it

Im out
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1260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE 18:00UTC 22July2010
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 22:15:42 N
Longitude : 75:48:12 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 908.2 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 100.8 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.9 m/s
Direction : 192.2 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gumbogator:
Overreation to a state of emergency for Bonnie.........Hail no!! We have a ton of oil off our coast and no one knows what the final result will be*** This is just a trial run for the big boomers that may form later in the GOM. There are 650 miles of boom from the gusher. The spill is about the size of the state of Utah.


It's a 40 mph Tropical Storm near the Bahama's right now and
atleast a week away with alot of forecast uncertainty.

My question is how much additionalTax money is the over reaction
costing the Tax payers again?
State of emergency's cost a great
deal ...not to criticize but it seems far to early and the storm may
end up in texas. The forecast accuracy is not good past 72 hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PtownBryan:


Where do you live homeless?


In SE TX Orange County. BEAUMONT/PT ARTHUR area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L/TS/B
MARK
23.1N/75.7W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Here is my weather station.. I would say the Barometric pressure dropped lower a tad this afternoon probably because of the ULL. Winds seem a tad bit lower.. But we are no where close to the storm..

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1253. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z (2 am, 8 am EDT)
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
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1252. tkeith
Quoting homelesswanderer:
\
The worst trajectory for the spill. :(
10-4 Homeless..
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm thinking Monroe County may be at risk as well.


They certainly are considering they're presently under Tropical Storm Warnings.
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1249. Patrap



* ARLENE : Tropical Storm : June 8 - June 12
* BRET : Tropical Storm : June 28 - June 30

* CINDY : Tropical Storm : July 3 - July 6
****Upgraded to Cat 1 Post Season)

* DENNIS : Hurricane (Category 4) : July 4 - July 11
* EMILY : Hurricane (Category 4) : July 10 - July 21
* FRANKLIN : Tropical Storm : July 21 - July 29
* GERT : Tropical Storm : July 23 - July 25
* HARVEY : Tropical Storm : August 2 - August 8
* IRENE : Hurricane (Category 2) : August 4 - August 18
* ten : Tropical Depression : August 13 - August 14
* JOSE : Tropical Storm : August 22 - August 23
* KATRINA : Hurricane (Category 5) : August 24 - August 30
* LEE : Tropical Storm : August 28 - September 2
* MARIA : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 2 - September 10
* NATE : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 5 - September 15
* OPHELIA : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 6 - September 18
* PHILIPPE : Hurricane (Category 1) : September 17 - September 24
* RITA : Hurricane (Category 5) : September 18 - September 25
* nineteen : Tropical Depression : September 20 - October 2
* STAN : Hurricane (Category 1) : October 1 - October 5
* TAMMY : Tropical Storm : October 5 - October 6
* twenty-two : Subtropical Depression : October 9 - October 12
* VINCE : Hurricane (Category 1) : October 9 - October 11
* WILMA : Hurricane (Category 5) : October 15 - October 25
* ALPHA : Tropical Storm : October 22 - October 24
* BETA : Hurricane (Category 3) : October 26 - October 31
* GAMMA : Tropical Storm : November 14 - November 21
* DELTA : Tropical Storm : November 23 - November 28
* EPSILON : Tropical Storm : November 29 -
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting Patrap:
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using SWAN) Model
\
The worst trajectory for the spill. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:


Well, is anyone from Mexico on here? So what good is that going to do?



yes there may be but you no what life are at risk overe there so i do care for 98L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
It's kinda hard to have a sense of humor when you have gone through something as bad as some of us have. I am not here looking for jokes I am looking for the comments of some of the most experienced people on here so that I may plan accordingly. I respect their information highly and am definitely not in a joking mood when it comes to the safety of my family...Thank you


I was in Andrew as a little kid. We were in the house as it was ripped to shreds around us. If you come here to make decisions about your family, you are in the wrong place.
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Quoting IKE:


Gettin a little dry...we could use some rain off of it and may get a little.




And rise in the east tomorrow...lol!
only if your facing, ahh, umm...never mind.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Where do you live homeless?

under a nice waterfront bridge located next to a canal...jk
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1242. Patrap
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Now that I'm back with fresh eyes,




.."What happened to yer other ones,,and where did you get the fresh Ones ?"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
is there another plane going out later?
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Evening again, all. The lead newscaster on our local station just got handed an email from the Met office detailing the upgrade of TD3 to Bonnie. It doesn't change a whole lot for us; winds hopefully won't get above 50 mph overnight, but pple were warned about flooding in lowlying areas. The met expects Bonnie to exit stage west tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Not that many people will care, but for those of you who think that this is an opportunity for the smart alec comments, you are doing a disservice for the others who are coming here to get real information.

I think its a shame that a blog that has been known for being on top of the game has degenerated to the stupidity of those who don't have anything better to do.

And no, they are not all teenagers.


Agreed. Quite a few users (not going to name them) are making snarky remarks, and it's more annoying than it is humorous.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Now that I'm back with fresh eyes, it seems like we should begin to see Bonnie take on a more WNW track in the next 6 hours as the cloud pattern and flow preceding the storm reflects this and the ridge starts to build back in some. Based upon this, I'm still forecasting a moderate tropical storm (50-65 mph) making landfall in Southern Miami Dade County sometime early to mid afternoon tomorrow.


I'm thinking Monroe County may be at risk as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


OK. Local ch 12 guy is about to blow a gasket that the models are taking this strait into a ridge of high pressure says they should shift left. Who knows. But at least all the locals said we are in the cone and need to pay attention. Just in case. Havn't heard that from anyone else today.


Where do you live homeless?
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Quoting skkippboo:


I DO!!!



and I
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Quoting RufusBaker:
WHO CARES ABOUT 98L


I DO!!!
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Quoting RufusBaker:
Yep farther north

north-caster..... cfla caster.... francis & jeanne brings back bad memories caster.... erin is going to get ya caster
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Quoting vortextrance:


THis blog has been the same since it began. There are just more "wishcasters" especially when it comes to FL. I haven't posted in years just lurked. I only recognize a few posters that were here 4 or 5 years ago. Most of the original posters are gone or don't bother posting anymore.


YEs, the Flacasters are haters
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1231. leo305

when are the hurricane hunters doing another run into the center? Anyone have the life tracker?
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Some people here have no sense of humor apparently...
It's kinda hard to have a sense of humor when you have gone through something as bad as some of us have. I am not here looking for jokes I am looking for the comments of some of the most experienced people on here so that I may plan accordingly. I respect their information highly and am definitely not in a joking mood when it comes to the safety of my family...Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1229. Patrap
Quoting RufusBaker:
Yep farther north




Home caster !
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1227. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
6:00 AM JST July 23 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Chanthu (994 hPa) located at 22.6N 108.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 23.3N 106.6E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:


Yeah I k, it's not affecting the US coast in any way!




what the heck that dos not mean a dran thing it still affecting MX so i care for it and so dos mx life are at risk there from flooding
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Now that I'm back with fresh eyes, it seems like we should begin to see Bonnie take on a more WNW track in the next 6 hours as the cloud pattern and flow preceding the storm reflects this and the ridge starts to build back in some. Based upon this, I'm still forecasting a moderate tropical storm (50-65 mph) making landfall in Southern Miami Dade County sometime early to mid afternoon tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
Some people here have no sense of humor apparently...


I agree... I got what you were throwing out there. There should be a sarcasm font...

This blog has gotten pretty rediculous. I'm not a frequent poster, but an often reader. Everyone has to beat each other to the punch. Everyone wants to be first to get it right.
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Quoting Patrap:


TS Bonnie is relaxing that earlier Momentum a tad ,and were seeing the System tonight undergoing a lil reorganization as it Slides Wnw to NW.

The Envelope is on Guidance as the Inner vortex waxes and wanes some. But that ULL is separating at a good clip.

Best to stay up on this one.

The Track is well figured so far,but intensity most seasoned follower of wu-ism know,..isnt.

Get the Phase one of your plan together tomorrow and top off cars,and supplies.

Thats my Plan..

Also were Having the NOLA Portlight Art,And Rummage and Stuff Sale here too.


So Ill be off and on with that.
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Quoting NASA101:
Lot of people are talking so much CRAP here, it's just unreal...especially the new bloggers! The integrity of this once great tropical blog has gone south in my judgment!!


THis blog has been the same since it began. There are just more "wishcasters" especially when it comes to FL. I haven't posted in years just lurked. I only recognize a few posters that were here 4 or 5 years ago. Most of the original posters are gone or don't bother posting anymore.
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well at lest we got are 2nd name storm lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Quoting extreme236:
I mean, Cane isn't exactly wrong...Bonnie is guaranteed to eventually die out (NHC forecast calls for this in around 5 days).


Thank you. I am perfectly in line with the NHC.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.