TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1369 - 1319

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting Tazmanian:



not for other 24 too 48hrs at best


Thanks Taz..I appreciate the answer :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
An older vortex message had SFMR winds of 45 knots, flight level winds I know were at 49mph.
Here it is:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Thanks, I was thinking the same thing, That last minute hook to the east with Katrina is still in the back of my mind. I am especially concerned because my high school class reunion is this weekend here and we have alot of people coming in from out of town. Some are here already. So I am watching this one very closely.

If the reunion is Saturday night you will have a great time and then let them all know about the Storm and they will leave by Sunday.... I also understand what you are going thru because I had a Wedding The Saturday before Katrina and had 300 of my Family here and then ran them all out of town on Sunday.... What a mess but got thru it though....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3249
Quoting 850Realtor:
Local Met on Channel 3 (Fl Panhandle) just said it was a mistake they called it a TS and it is back to a TD. Is that true?
It say ts bonnie on the nhc site, last check
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1364. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just came back from Publix. Satellite imagery continues to show organization and intensification as convection continues to wrap around the COC. Based on the vortex exhibiting winds of 45 knots, winds at 8PM should be bumped to 50mph.


where you buying supplies?
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2165
Quoting Patrap:
When Models cluster it shows confidence.



...except when they're a cluster f###, well, you know what I mean....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
What about Broward County Transportation, any word on that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1360. Patrap
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
But, Patrap, there has been great agreement between the models (very tightly clustered), and this thing still bucks the models and keeps rebuilding northward...


The Overall envelope is on track and the ridge is building in so wnw is all she can do.

Note the ridge building in from the East,Upper Right

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....



not for other 24 too 48hrs at best
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1357. DDR
Quoting cchsweatherman:
As the storm continues to develop and the hours pass, I'm becoming more and more concerned about flooding through South Florida tomorrow. Deep moisture associated with showers and storms due to Bonnie has become oriented across a large stretch from SE to NW and given the future motion shows a WNW track, this will push all that rain across the South Florida area. This has me most concerned right considering that we have seen well above normal rainfalls thus far this summer.

I hope you keep us updated.
above normal?a few bloggers from sfl were saying its been drier than usual?
Plenty of rain around my island,everyday...
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
1356. gator23
Quoting foggymyst:
Would the miami dade county take measures on halting public transportation if we just get bonnie in her current state?

they halt public transportation at 40 mph sustained winds.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2165
we may see a downgrand comeing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
Quoting extreme236:
1343.

The vortex was 43kt at flight level...which would support a 35kt intensity.
An older vortex message had SFMR winds of 45 knots, flight level winds I know were at 49mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
1343.

The vortex was 43kt at flight level...which would support a 35kt intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1350. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
pat, whats the deal with the track with new hunter info?


Waiting for a Updated ATCF Packet 00Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just came back from Publix. Satellite imagery continues to show organization and intensification as convection continues to wrap around the COC. Based on the vortex exhibiting winds of 45 knots, winds at 8PM should be bumped to 50mph.





yup



but why you where gone


000
URNT12 KNHC 222240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 22/22:26:10Z
B. 22 deg 45 min N
075 deg 35 min W
C. NA
D. 32 kt
E. 094 deg 29 nm
F. 164 deg 34 kt
G. 091 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 25 C / 214 m
J. 25 C / 221 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 02BBA INVEST OB 21
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 21:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
Well the blog is crazy, so I'm going to take a break.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
But, Patrap, there has been great agreement between the models (very tightly clustered), and this thing still bucks the models and keeps rebuilding northward...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pat, whats the deal with the track with new hunter info?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1344. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just came back from Publix. Satellite imagery continues to show organization and intensification as convection continues to wrap around the COC. Based on the vortex exhibiting winds of 45 knots, winds at 8PM should be bumped to 50mph.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
236 i think we sould get back too are storm be for we both end up get banned
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
1341. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1339. alcomat
just looked at the forecast discussion from georgia,and south carolina,the high thats building in,will be much stronger than first thought,with the axis centered over georgia.heights aloft will reach an impressive 597dam, which is unusually strong.dont see this storm affecting anyone east of louisiana,and will likeley move on a w-wnw track torward the middle to upper tx coast. imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yay, I leave for dinner and come home and one arguement put to rest..."will TD3 be TS Bonnie?" Yes, it is...now...where will she go?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 302
Quoting 850Realtor:
Local Met on Channel 3 (Fl Panhandle) just said it was a mistake they called it a TS and it is back to a TD. Is that true?


Not exactly.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Thanks, guess we will wait to see what happens later or even in the AM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 850Realtor:
Local Met on Channel 3 (Fl Panhandle) just said it was a mistake they called it a TS and it is back to a TD. Is that true?


I'm pretty sure they found winds sustained to more than 40mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
No hurrkat, because you've obviously violated the blog rules by coming on here with different names after you have already been banned on several other accounts.

And please, get spell-check, might make you sound a bit more intelligent. (troical was a nice word you used earlier)



well said
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey KatrinaBiloxiGirl,
Look with all due respect you should think about going into "Hurricane Mode" where you live.... We all know they seems to make that turn to the east right before landfall, and we will be on the worst side for the storm if it goes in to LA....
I have been here a long time and I just can't see anything stopping this from being a High end Cat1 maybe a Low end Cat2 at landfall....
So I just say be ready just in case..... I know I have been getting ready for 3 days now just to beat the rush of folks getting Gas, Batteries and can Goods....

We really never know where Bonnie will end up at the 2nd landfall....

Taco :o)
Thanks, I was thinking the same thing, That last minute hook to the east with Katrina is still in the back of my mind. I am especially concerned because my high school class reunion is this weekend here and we have alot of people coming in from out of town. Some are here already. So I am watching this one very closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
you know another scenario could happen very easily...the ull could latch on the the tropical depression and continue to pull it westward towards the middle and upper texas coast...this is a very good possibility....



u could be correct. Too far out to forecast accurately though.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting foggymyst:
Would the miami dade county take measures on halting public transportation if we just get bonnie in her current state?

No tomorrow will be a normal day unless unexpected strengthening happens tonight. Repeat tomorrow is no excuse for people in Miami to call in a snow/hurricane day.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting whs2012:


There's nothing wrong with that, but:

1. TS Bonnie is approaching the US coast, and she's a lot stronger than 98L
2. America comes first, then Mexico.


You're opinion has been duly noted.....and obviously disagreed with.....so how about pulling the plug.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Local Met on Channel 3 (Fl Panhandle) just said it was a mistake they called it a TS and it is back to a TD. Is that true?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
tazz either you need glasses or you just kidding



nop i dont need them you need need glasses
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114948
No hurrkat, because you've obviously violated the blog rules by coming on here with different names after you have already been banned on several other accounts.

And please, get spell-check, might make you sound a bit more intelligent. (troical was a nice word you used earlier)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe the ULL will interconnect with 98L and Bonnie and we will see a 1,200 year GOM Gyre Hypercane that inundates the 2 land masses N and South.

How would that suit some?



Hmmmm,Hmmm,..?
Gyre caster...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1323. Patrap
When Models cluster it shows confidence.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting foggymyst:
Would the miami dade county take measures on halting public transportation if we just get bonnie in her current state?


The mayor said that for now, transportation would be running as usual. Anything is subject to change, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting foggymyst:
Would the miami dade county take measures on halting public transportation if we just get bonnie in her current state?


Probably not.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Hi all...Well I am in SWLA and our Gov. just declared a State of Emergency....UGH!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1369 - 1319

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
72 °F
Scattered Clouds