TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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1419. plywoodstatenative
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Clear, calling them right now is like going to Publix; Not an option
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1417. DDR
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting ackee:
cant wait see what NHC will do at 8PM

Hey ackee,plenty rain in JA,this week?
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1694
1416. NoNamePub
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Strange - Navy site doesn't Show "bonnie"
Do they update slower?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 518
1415. Seflhurricane
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
WTNT33 KNHC 222340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2998
1414. gator23
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What about Broward County Transportation, any word on that?

yes, they said that no one rides public transportation in Broward so it will not be a problem.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
1413. LSU79
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
IMO this "THING" will become whatever it is destined to become. I live between Baton Rouge and New Orleans and have for the last 48 years. Over the last decade there have been some real monsters make landfall in this region. So, I have learned to listen and heed and prepare for the WORST and pray for the BEST.
Since I have been reading this blog I learned to sort through the "Wishcasters", "Downcasters", "Upcasters" glean the information I need and act accordingly. This blog is both entertaining and informative and I truly enjoy it. SO, BLOG ON!!!
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1411. bocahurricane
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting RainyEyes:
South Florida has seen a wetter then normal summer, while NE Florida and SE Georgia a dryer one ;)


actually where i am in Palm beach county we havent seen any rain at all in weeks. Usually this time of year it rains every afternoon but it has been very dry this summer so far.
Member Since: July 6, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
1410. washingaway
11:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
a new track will come at 11pm


11pm-caster
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
1407. Tazmanian
11:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
am no longer forcasting a hurricane i dont think this storm will get pass 50 mph
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1406. Patrap
11:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting Joanie38:


Thanks Pat! :) I still think you are funny :) Hey, you are in Louisiana too right?



Uptown Nola..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
1404. MiamiHurricanes09
11:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting hunkerdown:
Publix, he already said that
I think he meant like flashlights and that type of stuff.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1403. dsenecal2009
11:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Member Since: September 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
1402. KATRINABILOXIGIRL
11:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:

If the reunion is Saturday night you will have a great time and then let them all know about the Storm and they will leave by Sunday.... I also understand what you are going thru because I had a Wedding The Saturday before Katrina and had 300 of my Family here and then ran them all out of town on Sunday.... What a mess but got thru it though....

Taco :o)
Having a friday and saturday night thing and that is what I was hoping. Storm W told me last night that it would probably be 5 days to me so that would put it in here on Sunday evening. Wow, that was alot of people to rush out of here before Katrina. Good move on your part. Glad we are still around to discuss it. Stay safe...
Member Since: July 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
1401. Tazmanian
11:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
a new track will come at 11pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783


Not much doubt where its going with the current Intensity Forecast.....if it gets stronger then a more right move will occur. If it weakens then a more Left move will occur. It it stays as Forecasted then it looks like a Texas / Louisiana Border storm.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Watches would be required as early as tomorrow afternoon with the 36 Hr timeline somewhere along the N GOM.

Possibly in the am.


Thanks Pat! :) I still think you are funny :) Hey, you are in Louisiana too right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bonnie still moving towards the NW... Much further north than expected.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What about Broward County Transportation, any word on that?
Why don 't you call the dept of transportation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1395. jeebsa
The only reason I would like to see a more northerly track with Bonnie, say Broward co. or farther north is more interaction with land means less impact on the oil catastrophe in the GOM.I will happily take one on the chin here on the Treasure Coast than see that well start leaking again.
Just my opinion (go easy on me).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1394. scott39
My trust in wind shear forecast maps--- for the GOM--- is a little shakey at the moment, after the {Euro) originally had the ULL in Tandem with Bonnie in the GOM!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
No hurrkat, because you've obviously violated the blog rules by coming on here with different names after you have already been banned on several other accounts.

And please, get spell-check, might make you sound a bit more intelligent. (troical was a nice word you used earlier)


Post's like this do nothing but lower your blogger rating extreme.
you are attracting many flag's with these sort of post's.

He has a right to post [as does everyone] so just drop it.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1392. DDR
Thanks!
lol..but im not from Florida

POST 1374
ok i hear ya
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1694
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a downgrand comeing


what makes you say that? I thought she was building convection around her center...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1390. ackee
cant wait see what NHC will do at 8PM
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
1389. Patrap
Quoting omgonozohshite:


Pat where do you put the COC currently? Coordinates please


I track the envelope overall as its hard to find a CoC in the Levels.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....

Probably early Saturday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.




wind still the same but mb is now back up too 1007mb
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just came back from Publix. Satellite imagery continues to show organization and intensification as convection continues to wrap around the COC. Based on the vortex exhibiting winds of 45 knots, winds at 8PM should be bumped to 50mph.



Little better banding in the northern semicircle and improved outflow in the SW quadrant as the ULL continues to back away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 22
Location: 23.1°N 75.9°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What about Broward County Transportation, any word on that?

Really....really..... ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

where you buying supplies?
Publix, he already said that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

where you buying supplies?
I dunno, that's up to my parents. As far as I know, the shutters are up and batters, water, canned goods, etc... is all stored for tomorrow. I am expecting some power outages.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Miamian vacationing in Ft. Myers Beach. We're on the second floor of a condo right next to the Gulf. Should we expect any small surge as the storm passes? I'm not used to surges or whatever being so inland usually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joanie38:


Thanks Taz..I appreciate the answer :)



your welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1375. DDR
over 15 inches of rain in 3 weeks here in Trinidad.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1694
South Florida has seen a wetter then normal summer, while NE Florida and SE Georgia a dryer one ;)
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 302
Quoting DDR:

I hope you keep us updated.
above normal?a few bloggers from sfl were saying its been drier than usual?
Plenty of rain around my island,everyday...
if you want to stay updated, keep tuned to any local emergency broadcasts and look out your window
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


The technical definition of watches and warnings would preclude them going up this early.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting omgonozohshite:



LMFAO downcaster this thing is going to Cat 3 strength, Pascagoula MS landfall. BOOK IT!




your the downcaster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1370. Patrap
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


Watches would be required as early as tomorrow afternoon with the 36 Hr timeline somewhere along the N GOM.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting Tazmanian:



not for other 24 too 48hrs at best


Thanks Taz..I appreciate the answer :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.