TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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where in the world is JIm cantore friend of mine told me he was here in MIami,fl
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Quoting whs2012:


Isn't lake Charles in Texas? Tell me if I'm wrong? Lol
Lol, Lake charles is about 30 miles inside louisiana
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


We had two family weddings in May, I wish we could have run them out of town the next day.

You are to much LMBO.....
I flat told them to get out or be stuck here for a week and they took my advice and "Left Town"....
Now I do not like this at all. ("Bonnie")I still think it could turn to the East or just Right of what is projected right now..... I still donot see anything keeping this from a Cat1 or Low end Cat2 by Landfall.... Also the High is getting weeker by Saturday which would make me think a move to the right aswell....
Just my "opinion" and from what I'm seeing as of right now anyway....

Taco:o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
Next Recon mission scheduled to leave at 11:00 PM EDT and arriving at 1:00 AM EDT.

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Thanks for the update StormW!
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Quoting extreme236:
Hopefully admin bans hurrkat like they did debbykat and ALL of his other alias's.


One can only hope...thank goodness for the "poof" button
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

They do too.. since our economy is so winderful everyone has decided to take public trans... the buses in Broward cty are always packed packed packed...so if any cty uses pub trans in this state its Broward & of course dade... but the rest of the state wouldn't get that...hmmmmm


They are trying in the Tampa area...now if we will just approve a 1 cent tax to build some rail around here...
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Just came back from CVS, It was really crowded with people buying 24 packs of water bottles. Thankfully I was able to get my Sun Pass card after a 28 min wait.


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Quoting extreme236:
98L down to 30%



and out of time any way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
1458. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Not wise, I don't think, to put too much stock in any GOM forecast for Bonnie. Especially as it relates to intensity.


very true.
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1455. bassis
Quoting StormW:
I'll be calling in to the Barometer Bob show tonight around 8:30 p.m.

If I'm off work in time I'll be listening
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Really surprised that Broward County hasn't been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning yet with the northward motion throughout the afternoon.
looks like it will be extended northward Ts bonnie continues to move NW , i think it will make landfall near Miami
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Quoting gator23:

yes, they said that no one rides public transportation in Broward so it will not be a problem.

They do too.. since our economy is so winderful everyone has decided to take public trans... the buses in Broward cty are always packed packed packed...so if any cty uses pub trans in this state its Broward & of course dade... but the rest of the state wouldn't get that...hmmmmm
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
1452. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still down.

what a shame, i love that thing.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1451. DDR
Quoting ackee:
yeah been more like may or October

Cool
Ja needed the rain,here there's too much of it here,for the past 3 months...
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
98L down to 30%
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1449. Ossqss
Don't forget that much has changed this year as far as the public advisories and other items at the NHC.

PRODUCT CHANGES FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON
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Quoting gator23:

take the metromover, or is it still shut down.
Still down.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1447. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
Forecast accuracy has a negatively correlated relationship with time. And the delta increases exponentially.


Who said that, Darth Vader????? Jeff, are you OK?
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1446. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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Really surprised that Broward County hasn't been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning yet with the northward motion throughout the afternoon.
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1444. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! Yeah right! Bicycle's are too hard to ride. Whatchu think scooters are for? LOL! J/K.

take the metromover, or is it still shut down.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
00
ABNT20 KNHC 222348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DECREASED THIS
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE LOW
IS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$



98L RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DECREASED THIS
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE LOW
IS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting skkippboo:
Why I Care about 98L...

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/RGVFlooding1.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding4.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding2.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding3.jpg[/IMG]




Darnit, why don't the pics show?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am in cape coral, just west of Ft Myers and we have had what I would call a Northern Spring. Overcast all day wet days, not the usual storm in and storm out afternoons of the typical rainy season. It has been nice to lay inside on the dreary days listening to the rain though :)
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 302
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


he rode his bicycle to Publix! LOL

J/K Miamihurricane's09. [Laughs]
LOL! Yeah right! Bicycle's are too hard to ride. Whatchu think scooters are for? LOL! J/K.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Tazmanian:
turst me this storm is RIP


Why do you say that?
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1437. GetReal
Quoting atmosweather:


Little better banding in the northern semicircle and improved outflow in the SW quadrant as the ULL continues to back away.


Hey atmos glad to see you around for another season!!! I agree the organization continues to improve with each hour. The distance of ULL will eventually help to further ventilate Bonnie... Which will increase the convection and intensity imo...
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ull and shear all so it looks like this storm is falling a part some
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Why I Care about 98L...

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/RGVFlooding1.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding4.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding2.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i970.photobucket.com/albums/ae189/skkippboo/RGV%20Flooding/rgvflooding3.jpg[/IMG]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1434. gator23
I think that some people on this blog who are knocking others for getting prepared are way off base. Just because these folks are out buying supplies and getting ready they should be lauded not scorned. You never know what can happen and the fact that people take a tropical storm seriously should tell you everything.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1433. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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turst me this storm is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
1431. ackee
Quoting DDR:

Hey ackee,plenty rain in JA,this week?
yeah been more like may or October
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1372
Quoting gator23:

where you buying supplies?


he rode his bicycle to Publix! LOL

J/K Miamihurricane's09. [Laughs]
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting omgonozohshite:



LMFAO downcaster this thing is going to Cat 3 strength, Pascagoula MS landfall. BOOK IT!


Well the pressure did rise. he might be right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Not wise, I don't think, to put too much stock in any GOM forecast for Bonnie. Especially as it relates to intensity.


or landfall prediction... remember IKE? It was not slated for hou/galv until the very end...right before I lost my roof!!!
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Quoting taco2me61:

If the reunion is Saturday night you will have a great time and then let them all know about the Storm and they will leave by Sunday.... I also understand what you are going thru because I had a Wedding The Saturday before Katrina and had 300 of my Family here and then ran them all out of town on Sunday.... What a mess but got thru it though....

Taco :o)


We had two family weddings in May, I wish we could have run them out of town the next day.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
the new two is late
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Puerto Rico Wind Gust of 46mph with a band associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie here at my location in SE puerto rico, we are now under a marine advisory.

Power is now back in our area
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imo- i think that its clear in wv that t.s bonnie is starting to go more w than before. it looks to me that the ull is pulling bonnie to the w. please school me if I'm wrong:)
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SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Clear, calling them right now is like going to Publix; Not an option
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.