TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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1519. Dakster
Quoting gator23:

take the metromover, or is it still shut down.


Supposed to go back online tomorrow...
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Barometer Bob show starting: http://irc.hurricanehollow.org/
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Just came back from CVS, It was really crowded with people buying 24 packs of water bottles. Thankfully I was able to get my Sun Pass card after a 28 min wait.




You have to be kidding...Where was this? This system is a joke...come back when there is a real threat.
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1515. gator23
Quoting BenBIogger:


No love for AMTRAK?

i was referring more to municipal rail
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Quoting FFEMTRQ:


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.


OK, you've posted that five times in the past fifteen minutes.
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UNISYS View:


South Florida Radar:

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
So, looks like Bonnie wants to try out some gumbo!!

As far as intensity, nothing suprises me. I always remember Katrina how she blew up unexpectantly. Not saying this will be anything like Katrina but you just never can predict these storms to the tee.
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1510. Dakster
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Clear, calling them right now is like going to Publix; Not an option


LMAO... I bet Publix is packed...
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Guys i steped away a few hours and the pressure went up to 1007 whats going this should be getting lower can somebody explain please ??
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Quoting gator23:

in this respect I think South Florida is far ahead of the rest of the state. Tri-Rail Metrorail and Metromover


No love for AMTRAK?
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Good question, I'd like to know that too

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I might be blind but where in the NHC page does it say how far out TS winds extend from the Center?
thanks.
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AS far as those with the N track; yes, it is currently above it's forecast points, but I'd look for CONSISTENCY. If it is still headed NW at 11pm and few hours after,Eastern Time, then we'll see a more northern cone, if not, then obviously not.

So, for 11pm I wouldn't get all exited for a big jump north, but I DO think there will be some of a more NORTHERN cone.
If it's still going NW after that (I'm not saying yes or no), THEN we'll see a more pronounced shift north.

Again, I'm not saying or predicting anything. Just realize that a big N shift at 11 seems unlikely, however there will be some

Consistency is key...
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1505. shawn26
I live in Cape Coral too
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Quoting GetReal:


Bonnie is sitting the perfect location for further development, and an explosive DMAX tonight!!!

IMO Bonnie may surprise many on here, in the morning...


I agree.....we might just see a very strong TS or even possibly a Hurricane late Tomorrow evening....Tonites DMAX will be a big pop for Bonnie..WATCH!
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1503. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
WTNT83 KNHC 222347
TCVAT3

BONNIE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

.TROPICAL STORM BONNIE

FLZ069-075-173-174-230300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W
GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W

$$

FLZ168-172-230300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W
JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W

$$

FLZ076-077-078-230300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W
OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W

$$

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...



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1502. shawn26
Quoting RainyEyes:
I am in cape coral, just west of Ft Myers and we have had what I would call a Northern Spring. Overcast all day wet days, not the usual storm in and storm out afternoons of the typical rainy season. It has been nice to lay inside on the dreary days listening to the rain though :)
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1501. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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1499. scott39
Bonnie is starting to fire some good convection around the center! OH Bonnie girl, You better start turning more W if you want go thru the Staights of FL!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
1498. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:


They are trying in the Tampa area...now if we will just approve a 1 cent tax to build some rail around here...

in this respect I think South Florida is far ahead of the rest of the state. Tri-Rail Metrorail and Metromover
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Quoting skkippboo:
Why I Care about 98L...


This is a link to an excellent photo video of Hurricane Alex's damage to Monterrey. http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-470359
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Quoting whs2012:


Oh! Sorry lol. I went to NOLA one time and I couldn't remember if I stopped in lake Charles or somewhere else....because it was right before...port arthur maybe? Lll
Yes, if you were traveling west from NOLA then yep..lake charles is before the orange/port author/beaumont area.
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opsman, I have my book ready, a blanky and my air on high ;) Will have my window cracked, tv off and no place to go. What about you? Got plans?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 302
1494. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
The way some write off systems here reminds me of the scene from Airplane II at Alpha Beta Base, where William Shatner's character gives up hope that Stryker can safely land the Lunar Shuttle there.

This system has already shocked more than a few, and it remains unwise to turn away now.

Also, maybe someone can answer ... has a named system ever degenerated into an open wave after entering the GOM, before landfall?


There are a very small number of GOM storms in the database that never hit land, but it is a very small number (I think you can count them on one hand it is so small.)
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Quoting GetReal:


Hey atmos glad to see you around for another season!!! I agree the organization continues to improve with each hour. The distance of ULL will eventually help to further ventilate Bonnie... Which will increase the convection and intensity imo...


Hey GR good to see ya too! I'm aiming to be more productive this season LOL! The last 2 years I haven't been around too much but I'm glad to be back.

You can see on the visible loop that more deep convection is trying to fire over the broad COC. It appears that the dominant spin is still to the N of the lowest pressures but with shear lowering and ridging building aloft it should be able to strengthen some.
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I am dropping 98L from my website...with all the loops and graphics so everything will load faster......LOL....hey it is what it is!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
where in the world is JIm cantore friend of mine told me he was here in MIami,fl


Jim is on North Miami Beach. Guess that means that Bonnie will go further North or South! LOL
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Quoting CaneWarning:


They are trying in the Tampa area...now if we will just approve a 1 cent tax to build some rail around here...

you should because truth be said.... the poor & mid are finding it harder to afford reg trans and are relying on public trans more & more & 10 yrs from now...welll
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting FFEMTRQ:


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.


Hi from Beaumont ch12 news guy toned down his forecast. But he said he thinks it will e a TX storm. Here or farther down the coast.
Channel 6 says upper tx coast to mid LA. UGH! Here we go again.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
i'm wondering when their going to put up ts watches further north on the east and west coasts of fl???


I don't think they'll go north really on the west coast.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1484. gator23
Quoting 954FtLCane:

They do too.. since our economy is so winderful everyone has decided to take public trans... the buses in Broward cty are always packed packed packed...so if any cty uses pub trans in this state its Broward & of course dade... but the rest of the state wouldn't get that...hmmmmm

i know i was teasing, Miami-Dade is number 1 and would you believe Alachua county is number 2
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1483. GetReal


Bonnie is sitting the perfect location for further development, and an explosive DMAX tonight!!!

IMO Bonnie may surprise many on here, in the morning...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
Quoting Seflhurricane:
where in the world is JIm cantore friend of mine told me he was here in MIami,fl

Yelp he is in Miami and was on the NBC Nightly News talking about the Storm....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3241
wind shear has drop too 0kt out there this look at all the low wind shear other the a few 30kt and 40 too 50kt by FL

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114779
1480. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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1479. jeebsa
Quoting Seflhurricane:
where in the world is JIm cantore friend of mine told me he was here in MIami,fl
Yep and his opinion was a more northerly track. Will see
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Quoting skkippboo:




Darnit, why don't the pics show?


try < img src= "your pic"
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting RainyEyes:
I am in cape coral, just west of Ft Myers and we have had what I would call a Northern Spring. Overcast all day wet days, not the usual storm in and storm out afternoons of the typical rainy season. It has been nice to lay inside on the dreary days listening to the rain though :)


20 some odd miles North of you. Be prepared for a very rainy weekend ahead.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like it will be extended northward Ts bonnie continues to move NW , i think it will make landfall near Miami
The 5PM cone called for WNW motion to begin around now. If it doesn't begin very soon, the cone will likely have to be shifted a bit to the right at 11PM EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
i'm wondering when their going to put up ts watches further north on the east and west coasts of fl???
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Quoting whs2012:


I don't think so. I only see 2 ppl (you and hurricaneswirl) complaining. You know, you'd be a horrible tv weather forecaster. Why, TS Bonnie is going to the Florida straights and then to LA. NO on on here is from MEXICO. Why are you going to has debates about some system that isn't going to affect us whatsoever, and is probably going to have little affects on mexico, when everyone on here wants to know about ts Bonnie and see if they need to get prepared, and what to prepare for. I hope if you ever do bcome a tv forecaster, you don't do that...bcuz you will get fired instantly. And I really would like for you to go tell someone in the military America comes first then Mexico. Just be sure to call me so I can bring my videocamera!


Haaaaaa, yeah young bud, everybody here knows I want to be a TV forcaster....LMAO! If you have some legitimate info or a reasonable comment about any system on this planet, please feel free to do so, But don't you dare tell me or anyone else what we have to care about or what we shouldn't care about. Now buzz off pesky gnat.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Really surprised that Broward County hasn't been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning yet with the northward motion throughout the afternoon.


I was thinking the same...i'm sure the 11pm will post it .....one would think!
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1471. FFEMTRQ
Quoting Joanie38:
Well, like I said I am in SWLA and our Gov. declared a State of Emergency..I am wondering when they will put up watches and warnings for Louisiana....


I am from Lake Charles area. Warnings should be issued sometime tomorrow evening if Bonnie stays together and continues on the forecast path.
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I might be blind but where in the NHC page does it say how far out TS winds extend from the Center?
thanks.
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where in the world is JIm cantore friend of mine told me he was here in MIami,fl
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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