TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1569 - 1519

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

1568. Dakster
Bonnie should be nothing more than a bad afternoon thunderstorm that takes the whole day to pass over...

Just gotta watch out for Tornados - especially since South Florida will be on da derty side.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1566. alcomat
Quoting taco2me61:

You are to much LMBO.....
I flat told them to get out or be stuck here for a week and they took my advice and "Left Town"....
Now I do not like this at all. ("Bonnie")I still think it could turn to the East or just Right of what is projected right now..... I still donot see anything keeping this from a Cat1 or Low end Cat2 by Landfall.... Also the High is getting weeker by Saturday which would make me think a move to the right aswell....
Just my "opinion" and from what I'm seeing as of right now anyway....

Taco:o)
look at the georgia forecast discussion,the high is forecast to be stronger than first predicted,and centered over georgia-alabama.I dont see it making a right turn..texas landfall? jmo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Southeast Louisiana coast here..wondering if you guys think we will have a hurricane? Our governor has already declared a state of emergency and Bonnie took up most of the newscast. Thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only way I found around it is to put them, and sorry taz, anyone who quoted it on ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this re port him
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116122
Quoting whs2012:


Isn't lake Charles in Texas? Tell me if I'm wrong? Lol


No... Lake Charles Louisiana
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:

You are to much LMBO.....
I flat told them to get out or be stuck here for a week and they took my advice and "Left Town"....
Now I do not like this at all. ("Bonnie")I still think it could turn to the East or just Right of what is projected right now..... I still donot see anything keeping this from a Cat1 or Low end Cat2 by Landfall.... Also the High is getting weeker by Saturday which would make me think a move to the right aswell....
Just my "opinion" and from what I'm seeing as of right now anyway....

Taco:o)


I can't disagree Taco. We've been through too many to let our guard down. Been pressure washing all afternoon and I'm getting close bedtime (wore out). I'm anxious to see what's going on with Bonnie in the morning and hopefully the projections will still be playing out well for us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1555. tkeith
Quoting tkeith:
PLEASE!
nevermind...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8939
post 1524 really screwed things up....please delete it please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1553. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
Pls delete #1524!
PLEASE!
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8939
Cantore was just on the weather channel from somewhere on a beach.Not sure where. The TWC says the storm is very disorganized the two ULL on the East will begin to soon push Bonnie to the WNW. Also said as far as rain maybe 2-4 " in sporadic areas
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
Quoting hurrkat05:
bonnie will get no stronger then 60 mph and that's being generous...



it think you may be right and am being nic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116122
Well, I wouldn't crack my windows in a hurricane (duh) but, for some rain I can? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




i think are storm may b even be falling a part


Oh really?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24972
Quoting txag91met:


You have to be kidding...Where was this? This system is a joke...come back when there is a real threat.


In Kendall. I just went in to buy a Sun Pass card. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Sure hope the Pro's stay on top of this one
might be more then they expect. (IMO)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FFEMTRQ:
My blackberry keeps reposting the same comment. I'm sorry. Darn technology.


Ah, I thought something was amiss. My hubby has a problem with his Backflip making random phone calls..technology, ain't it grand?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1542. shawn26
They are a lot of fun. I was here for Charlie. Had winds gusts of 130 at my house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what the heck just happened to the blog.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1539. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133448
With a lot of you thinking this may take a more northern track, I live close to Pensacola, anybody here think this may still come this way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1535. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133448
i tihnk are TS is a little less organized
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116122
Quoting txag91met:


You have to be kidding...Where was this? This system is a joke...come back when there is a real threat.


Good thinking, people should wait until the last possible minute to be prepared for an emergency *snark off*

Seriously, people that live in Hurricane prone areas need to be prepared, the sooner the better. Waiting until a warning is issued means you waited too long. Do not listen to the clowns on here that insist on downplaying the danger of these storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1532. Dakster
Actually. For those in Miami-Dade County that need to use metro-mover. Here is a cut and and paste from the miamidade.gov website:

Transit to reopen partial Metromover service

The Inner Loop and Omni segment of the Outer Loop, will resume regular service beginning at 5 a.m. on Friday, July 23. The Brickell segment of the Outer Loop will remain closed until further notice.

Shuttle buses will continue to provide free rides for patrons going to stations on the Brickell segment of the Outer Loop. Updates to this information are available on Transit’s website.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question for any expert or knowledgeable figure on tropical weather; is the NHC being way too conservative on Bonnie's intensity? In my opinion they are...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:
So, looks like Bonnie wants to try out some gumbo!!

As far as intensity, nothing suprises me. I always remember Katrina how she blew up unexpectantly. Not saying this will be anything like Katrina but you just never can predict these storms to the tee.

It won't be Katrina. There were many models (UKMET/ECMWF) that nailed Katrina well before it made it into the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RainyEyes:
opsman, I have my book ready, a blanky and my air on high ;) Will have m window cracked, tv off and no please to go. What about you? Got plans?
Do NOT crack ur windows open
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1527. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133448
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
Guys i steped away a few hours and the pressure went up to 1007 whats going this should be getting lower can somebody explain please ??


I would wait on the next recon flight to get a better understanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting shawn26:
I live in Cape Coral too


Well, the next time we get a hurricane, we can all get together and have a hurricane party I suppose. Never lived in Florida during a hurricane yet...but I guess it will eventually happen. Not sure WHAT a hurricane party is, but I hear it is the "in" thing :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1523. FFEMTRQ
My blackberry keeps reposting the same comment. I'm sorry. Darn technology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree.....we might just see a very strong TS or even possibly a Hurricane late Tomorrow evening....Tonites DMAX will be a big pop for Bonnie..WATCH!

come on Tampa well I would like Friday off....cat 1?...lol..btw I live in Lauderdale
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
Guys i steped away a few hours and the pressure went up to 1007 whats going this should be getting lower can somebody explain please ??




i think are storm may b even be falling a part
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116122
WEll the bloggers here must be very excited. They finally have something to look at. I dropped in yesterday and bloggers where so down sadden by the lack of tropical activity.
Everyone was so sure 97l was a wash out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1519. Dakster
Quoting gator23:

take the metromover, or is it still shut down.


Supposed to go back online tomorrow...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1569 - 1519

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto