TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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1719. shawn26
Quoting TheRealJackSparrow:
I have been reading this blog for about 5 years now. Ive learned alot, its always intresting. I guess I will join in on all the fun.
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Just got home from work. Are the HH's still out in Bonnie?
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
hey gang...we've been in FL...a local mentioned TD3 and now I see we have Bonnie. We're heading home to Lafayette, LA Saturday late...any reason to head home earlier? TIA
Saturday shouldn't be tough, if GFDL's timing is to be believed...unless there are substantial evacuations going on. (doubtful, atm, but who knows?)
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Quoting jonelu:


No I would stay....Wind and rain on Friday with possible airline delays. But Sat SHOULD be business as usual.

THanks for the info!
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looks like it might actauly hit the 2nd trop pt. any thoughts? it might be starting that wnw turn we have been waiting for...
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Heck, at the pace Bonnie is moving, it may move inland overnight.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting muddertracker:

Yeah, if you were here before 2006 you got a pitch fork, 2007, a torch, and well, 2008 or later...you just got a toaster (be careful not to use near bathtub in times of crisis)
I've been here since 06 and all I got was a rock.
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1704. jonelu
Quoting hurricanehanna:
hey gang...we've been in FL...a local mentioned TD3 and now I see we have Bonnie. We're heading home to Lafayette, LA Saturday late...any reason to head home earlier? TIA


No I would stay....Wind and rain on Friday with possible airline delays. But Sat SHOULD be business as usual.
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I will be on the Tropics Chat soon.
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Didn't somebody ask earlier if a depression got in the gulf and made it to a hurricane?



Lol. Irony.
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I am sorry for all of you in the path of 97L/TD3/Bonnie. We have been affected by this system for the past week in Puerto Rico. It produced (and continues to produce) tons of rain. Pay attention to any flash flood warnings that are posted for your area.
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**REPOST** - Let's get back on topic.
----------------------------------------------
National Hurricane Center - 8:00 pm Advisory
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
*Graphics Update
STORM TRACKER

ADVISORIES
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be back later looks to be an intresting night ahead of us, would not be surprised with a 60 MPH tropical storm approaching the Miami area .
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
I still have my toaster...it takes a little longer than normal to work, but it's reliable :-D
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Newby question, why can't I see some of the posts even if I say show?

Thanks
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1686. Detrina
ok back to weather:)

so should I put my furniture back in the pool yet?
Palm Harbor Fl

hugs to taz:)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys i did not mean too Quote i did not even not it would do some in like that so am vary sorry


all so if your going too pooof some one do it too skip
just relax and focus on weather before we all get into trouble ,Bonnie continues to improve more and more
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Link
PLeAse look how far north Bonnie is going compared to points
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1677. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
1669. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.