TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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boats and barges will come in, the ships are safer out in open water than in docks or ports
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.... why are people putting up shutters?(only saw shutters, not boards) ...... but really, seriously?
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National Hurricane Center - 8:00 pm Advisory
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
*Graphics Update
STORM TRACKER

ADVISORIES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1965. scott39
Quoting hurrkat05:
JEFF THE BLOG HAS SLOWED BECAUSE THERE IS NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT BONNIE DUDE...
I knew something was getting on my nerves! POOF POOF POOF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting myway:
south florida is safe. That is where Cantore is.
lol...wake up Dave Schwartz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1963. Patrap
Quoting DestinJeff:


i dare say that is garbage at this point.


No itsa from here..

cira.colostate.edu

Why folks get a crunk in dey drawers over a Map is usually Humorous.

Chuckle,..snicker
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting floridaT:
i stand corrected i looked it up and they are going to leave it closed. thats good news i read a story earlier that they were goin to open it
No problem.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
are y'all proud of me...I just placed my 1st ignore.... 3 yrs.... it was hurikat.... annoying little troll go away... I enjoy people of difference but enough was enough
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CIMMS shear map shows that Bonnie is now under 10 knots of wind shear, it's a fact, here's my evidence.



Expect Bonnie to organize some more tonight.
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Quoting Patrap:
Just a quick update on where we're at regarding what's going on at the well. As you know the projected storm track of the tropical depression that was originally yesterday forecasted to come ashore somewhere around Miami is going further south now.

There is a variety of tracks that would take it near or over the well site itself. We're under the assumption that somewhere very early in the morning on Saturday we could see storm force winds at the well site.

And we think the storm passing over will probably be about 24 hours in duration. During that time it's very possible we could have wave heights that would exceed the operational envelop for all platforms. So while this is not a hurricane it's a storm that will have probably some significant impact so we're taking appropriate cautions related to that.

And we are in constant contact with BP and their subcontractors who are operating vessels out there, our science team met with BP this morning and we had a principle's discussion at 1:30 among the administration on our way forward.


so does everyone out there on the ships and platforms evacuate? do they dock the ships? just curious.
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1956. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
1954. scott39
How do we Know how fast Bonnie will go once in the GOM to project landfall, on the Gulf Coast in a specific amount of time? Ive watched alot of hurricanes over 30 years and they always speed up and slow down!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Lord have mercy Taz made a mistake let iy go. Cause I imagine u all have made a few ur self. Is the upper winds gonna keep Bonnie as a tropical storm.sheri
WHAT? I never make mistakes. Boo Boo's yes, flat out Screw-Up's all the time....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1952. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting RescueAFR:
Good Evening from South Fla..
Based on the NHC IR loop the convection approx location 15 / 65 is that part of Bonnie or something new to watch? Thanks... Steve


I noticed this, too. The radar echos out of PR show some twisting to the south of the island. But, it does not look particularly impressive at the moment.
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Quoting msgambler:
No they are not.
i stand corrected i looked it up and they are going to leave it closed. thats good news i read a story earlier that they were goin to open it
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Quoting hurrkat05:
KINGZFAN I DONT THINK YOU SHOULD SAY ANYTHING I HAVE BEEN DEAD ON ALL DAY ON BONNIE...LOL NOW 40MPH WINDS ..I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ULL HANGS AROUND THEY DROP BONNIE BACK TO A DEPRESSION...I WANT TO KNOW WHATS YOUR PROBLEM DUDE..
no you havent at all. all you have done all day is say that it wont develop and blah blah blah. you have not said anything that has come true.
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1946. Patrap
Quoting DestinJeff:


not too shabby, eh?


Not too shabby atall Homie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting atmosweather:


Yep, between midnight and 6AM Saturday, but the outer rainbands will start to impact the central and southern FL counties starting tomorrow afternoon. Looks like even my area will get 30-35 mph gusts in some of the bands.


I'm pretty sure that the storm will leave through Florida tomorrow night into early Saturday (2AM). It's moving quickly and S.FL should start feelings some effects tonight, but getting worse tomorrow in the late morning going into the afternoon hours.
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1943. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
9:00 AM JST July 23 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chanthu (996 hPa) located at 23.1N 107.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.0N 106.5E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
redwagon what are you talking about ??????? I have said nothing about Kenedy Co, Tx landfall
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Lord have mercy Taz made a mistake let iy go. Cause I imagine u all have made a few ur self. Is the upper winds gonna keep Bonnie as a tropical storm.sheri
Quoting sammywammybamy:






Tazmanian
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1938. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Miami NWS Tropical Cyclone Impacts all risks are rated very low or low.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1936. centex
Meant to post this image, my clip board full of stuff.

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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Ohh I know Texascoast, your good.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep. Convection is wrapping around nicely.

what your take on this
Tropical Depression 03L




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2010 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 23:10:07 N Lon : 76:05:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 2.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -38.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Oh ya I suppose he was considering that he lives there. Yeah landfall looks to be in about 18 hours, overnight Friday night, with the worst of the weather moving in during the day tomorrow.


Yep, between midnight and 6AM Saturday, but the outer rainbands will start to impact the central and southern FL counties starting tomorrow afternoon. Looks like even my area will get 30-35 mph gusts in some of the bands.
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That wasn't at you msgambler is was to floridaT
and yes that is what you said
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1929. palmpt
Quoting alaina1085:

In prairieville, LA. Between baton rouge and nola.

Guys my computer is still running weird from the post earlier. Anyone else?


I am in Biloxi. W went to Cabelas recently. Good luck to you guys...
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Quoting texascoastres:
Tropicalnonsense where are you getting the time frame of a week out. it is thursday and the storm will be in sunday or monday, which is 3 days out not a week. thats false information and not appreciated


Oh please. You will see it is many days out. proably longer.

it still has to go into the Gulf and turn Northward so
the timeline of 4 days you are seeing now will likely be extended.

I still think it's silly to panic with EMO this early.

But again it's important to note this is only my opinion.
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1927. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
1926. centex
Once it starts back WNW or just N of W everything will shift back to TX/LA border. I think SE TX still should be in cone. Can't really trust cone that many days out.

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Quoting texascoastres:
They are not going to open the valves. They have already made that decision. BP and the feds made that call


Wow. From a Kenedy Co., TX landfall to an ATL fish storm in one afternoon.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Early model runs on this had Bonnie crossing extreme SE FL as a TS according to NHC's OFCI track. So far, it seems that early run has been on. Especially if it crosses S Andros tonight, it's IMO going to end up just a tad north of Florida Bay. I don't think it will make huge amounts of difference to the people from Homestead north, though.


I would say anywhere from Miami S-ward with regards to a landfall...possibly just brushing the S coast and going through the Bay and the Keys. And that's exactly right, the rain and gusty winds are on the north side of this system and will impact the lower half of the state, especially the gusty winds because of the tight pressure gradient with the strong high to the N.
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1922. scott39
Quoting FMTXWMAN:
wow only 39 pages.. figured it would be more of a madhouse in here.
Traffic has slowed because of intensity forecast!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1920. Levi32
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I think he was talking about FLA, FYI.


Oh ya I suppose he was considering that he lives there. Yeah landfall looks to be in about 18 hours, overnight Friday night, with the worst of the weather moving in during the day tomorrow.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
1919. Patrap
Just a quick update on where we're at regarding what's going on at the well. As you know the projected storm track of the tropical depression that was originally yesterday forecasted to come ashore somewhere around Miami is going further south now.

There is a variety of tracks that would take it near or over the well site itself. We're under the assumption that somewhere very early in the morning on Saturday we could see storm force winds at the well site.

And we think the storm passing over will probably be about 24 hours in duration. During that time it's very possible we could have wave heights that would exceed the operational envelop for all platforms. So while this is not a hurricane it's a storm that will have probably some significant impact so we're taking appropriate cautions related to that.

And we are in constant contact with BP and their subcontractors who are operating vessels out there, our science team met with BP this morning and we had a principle's discussion at 1:30 among the administration on our way forward.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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