TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2119 - 2069

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting reedzone:


Even more proof that shear is not an issue! That patch of decreasing shear is moving along with Bonnie. We don't have visible so we don't know for sure if it's decoupled. It is however gewtting squashed under the high, but I dont think that will stop it from growing more later. 10 knots of shear doesn't tear apart systems and that's what Bonnies center is under per the LATEST CIMMS shear map.


Either way, I'm not impressed. Hostile conditions surround this system. I'd be shocked if this system intensifies to even 60 mph winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys the CIMMS shear maps may be 10% off in other words the wind shear may not be that high
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
Grothar, US old guys need to go to bed "Danger Will Robinson" I am well prepared for two days of rain and a slight blow. X forming LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2116. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IAmRooot:
Is this an eye forming?



Na... Not tonight.. The reverend Jessie Jackson would tell you this storm is Disenfranchised... COC's going everywhich way..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Even more proof that shear is not an issue! That patch of decreasing shear is moving along with Bonnie. We don't have visible so we don't know for sure if it's decoupled. It is however gewtting squashed under the high, but I dont think that will stop it from growing more later. 10 knots of shear doesn't tear apart systems and that's what Bonnies center is under per the LATEST CIMMS shear map.
Look at the outflow and banding features, that alone should tell you that Bonnie is under favorable upper level conditions.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting btwntx08:


dont quote trolls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IAmRooot:
Is this an eye forming?



That's just the jelly in the doughnut.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2110. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IAmRooot:
Is this an eye forming?




eye caster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
Quoting btwntx08:



Even more proof that shear is not an issue! That patch of decreasing shear is moving along with Bonnie. We don't have visible so we don't know for sure if it's decoupled. It is however gewtting squashed under the high, but I dont think that will stop it from growing more later. 10 knots of shear doesn't tear apart systems and that's what Bonnies center is under per the LATEST CIMMS shear map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are going to go from the Florida doom-casters to the GOM-casters. Gotta love it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


Looks like a squashed doughnut.


Krispy Kreme??? mmmmmmmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2105. Grothar
Quoting IAmRooot:
Is this an eye forming?



No an X
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
Quoting ssmate:
The Radar.


Which radar. Out of Miami? I'd like to look for myself. thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


psychiatry. most people just need to get over it, but instead they are told they are bipolar etc. they are wrong 90% of the time and keep their jobs.


A US Congressman
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Is this an eye forming? Well i tried to post a pic so let me try again. sorry for the mistake.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


well, spell the beans man..... what did he say about Bonnie??
and spill em too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canehater1:


All non-essential vessels were sent in yesterday. (I'm on one of them) The remaining vessels and personnel are coming in tonight and tomorrow. Shoreside support personnel in Port Fourchon and Grand Isle will be evacuating tomorrow as well.


Yep, I posted earlier that my husbands boat was evacuated this afternoon. They are on their way inland as we speak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2099. Levi32
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
yo levi. great update.


Thank you.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting reedzone:
Hostile conditions?? Where are you all getting this? CIMMS shear map shows 10 knots of wind shear over Bonnie. It's ragged, but a good DMAX should get it going tonight.


agreed, if the shear maps are correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update!

July 22, 2010 - 8:35 PM EDT - Tropical Storm Bonnie Develops
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Shear is 10 - 20 knots.


from the looks of the Satt. presentation, I would say I believe 20 knots much more than 10 knots........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


nite
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
next recon flight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Does Bonnie look good to you? In your oppinion.


Looks like a squashed doughnut.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


Night Storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Norm!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2086. ssmate
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
I was just looking at channel 7 weather guy is a idiot he is telling people that bonnie is not looking to good what is this idiot looking at
The Radar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2084. jeebsa
Quoting StormW:


Should be starting to head WNW very soon.

It's possible they could shift them tomorrow.
Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hostile conditions?? Where are you all getting this? CIMMS shear map shows 10 knots of wind shear over Bonnie. It's ragged, but a good DMAX should get it going tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not sure if its fair to say its decoupled without visible imagery. It's possible the center could be on the southern edge of the convection. I don't believe it's as lame as people make it out to be. Shear is relaxing and conditions appear more favorable than 12 hours ago. Just wait till then next recon gets in there and we'll know for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB at 2.5.


Consensus would be 40kts, but they will probably wanna wait for recon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canehater1:


All non-essential vessels were sent in yesterday. (I'm on one of them) The remaining vessels and personnel are coming in tonight and tomorrow. Shoreside support personnel in Port Fourchon and Grand Isle will be evacuating tomorrow as well.


interesting. glad you are safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Bonnie of 1980 to me is the PERFECT HURRICANE:
Strong, so beautiful but affects no land! yay=)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2078. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


Excellent stuff.


Thanks.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
2076. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


Night Storm!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta love Dr. Lyons! I was just Chatting with him on FB....good man he is and always there for me!



What did he say?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
I was just looking at channel 7 weather guy is a idiot he is telling people that bonnie is not looking to good what is this idiot looking at
Does Bonnie look good to you? In your oppinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!
Night Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave Bonnie a T3.0/45kt intensity estimate.




hmmmm may be they are seeing some in where not
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
2071. centex
That high will only put it back on WNW track. For some reason even the models are making same mistake casual observers make, they extraplopate current track too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2070. A4Guy
storm - do you agree that the system is decoupling?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave Bonnie a T3.0/45kt intensity estimate.
SAB at 2.5.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

Viewing: 2119 - 2069

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
63 °F
Overcast