TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2269 - 2219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting Clearwater1:
If you can, stay at home. Better safe than sorry.


99.9% positive I'll be doing that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
There are too many downcasters on here tonight, I'll be back on later. Frustrated a bit after showing maps and facts that conditions are not hostile to back up my statement and I still get pointed out wrong. You guys got wayy too much of hurrikat (stormtop) this evening.
lol
We're not being Hurrikated. lol. Look at the satellite. Listen to those that know more. Bonnie's getting choked like Luca Brasi. But she's a fighter. She'll probably maintain 40-50MPH. That's it for now. Hopefully over the Gulf she'll stay lean. She's surrounded by trouble from 3 sides, but she won't meet the same result that Luca did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez.. LSU's certainly a negative Nancy. Grothar are you out there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2266. Patrap
Quoting sammywammybamy:



PAT that radar is wrong .. so far no rain here in south florida


Thats Verga..

the radar is fine..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting BahaHurican:
On changing blog moods, that has to do with different PEOPLE being on the blog at different times more than anything else.


I disagree. It seems to follow exactly with the satellite presentation of the storm. If it has a lot of convection, regardless of low-level organization, people get all "OMG rapid intensification." As soon as the convection dies down, again despite organization structure, people switch to "it's dying."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


Convection is good, but convection without good outflow is NOT good. Outlow will need to reestablish itself or that T-Storm complex will eventually collapse.

but i has out flow all it needs is a good d-max with all that 85 degree water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LSU:


CCHS was widely known as one of the biggest wishcasters on the site last year, which is what led to his mental breakdown and "retirement." Therefore, to answer your question, "yes."


Can we please keep the personal attacks to yourself! No place for that on this bog!

Thanks in advance! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
Quoting hurrkat05:
LOL I BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU PEOPLE WHAT BONNIE HAD TO GO THROUGH BUT SOME OF YOU INCLUDING DR MASTER WAS PREDICTING A HURRICANE...NO WAY BONNIES REACHES HURRICANE STATUS...NHC REALLY SCREWED UP THIS TIME SHUTTING DOWN OIL OPERATIONS IN THE GOM...

can u shut it im asking to plz get out man u r so bad be prepared to eat 100000 lbs of raw crow


It's just his opinion. He is entitled just like everyone on this site is. He might be right the way things are going for Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I really don't appreciate someone bringing up my past troubles on here.
Don't worry about it, that's what we categorize as a troll. Just ignore him, you'll be better off that way.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Homesteadfl74:
Back in Oct 1999, SoFla got Hurricane Irene. Local government and mets were saying: 'oh, it's a minimal Cat 1, everyone go about your daily routine. Nothing is cancelled...blah, blah, etc.' Well, around mid day, everyone was sent home in a rush because winds were much higher than expected and flooding was everywhere. I was one of those in traffic on the xpressway, terrified as my car was shaking so bad and visibility down to zero. With Bonnie now, it's kind of like the same attitude: 'oh, it will just be some heavy rain, some gusts of wind, blah, etc.". I know it's just a TS, but sometimes intesity is worse than expected. I hope it's as benign as they are saying for i don't want to get caught in traffic on the expressway again and experience what I did that day in 1999. This time I'm in a minivan with precious cargo on board...
If you can, stay at home. Better safe than sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Anyone see this tonight?

I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters


I did at 6:30 CST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Great.
cchs a sham?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sometimes like to step outside of the Tropical zones for a better look at the overall synoptics. Interesting take on the ridge from the Little Rock AFD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG
PERIOD. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. THURSDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2254. ssmate
Quoting FLdewey:
Reading twitter this is the best Cantore tweet:

Jim Cantore is least likely weatherman ever. Looks like Ed Hochuli's little brother :)

10 points for the NFL reference!
refereecaster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RainyEyes:
NHC is suppose to be changing the forecasted models in 15 mins but not much. In the meantime, I think that she has convection blowing up BUT becoming disorganized and elongated. Perhaps that is why SOME look at it and think that it is strengthening and some say it is weakening.


Convection is good, but convection without good outflow is NOT good. Outlow will need to reestablish itself or that T-Storm complex will eventually collapse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2252. Levi32
Quoting hurricaster:


Have you had a chance to view the latest Euro model on the "Pro" site. Seems to definitely agree with your assumption. Bonnie may be the decoy for Colin.


Well I'm not forecasting development but I'm watching it. Ya the 12z ECMWF seems to develop more the southern end of the wave in the Caribbean and take it up into the west gulf in 5 days. We'll see how it goes. It's a sneaky little thing that doesn't stand out much right now, but it may start making noise on the weather map in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off with her head!!! It looks like a possibility if Bonnie doesn't outrun the ULL. Then, to her west, a wall of heavy shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LSU:


CCHS was widely known as one of the biggest wishcasters on the site last year, which is what led to his mental breakdown and "retirement." Therefore, to answer your question, "yes."


I really don't appreciate someone bringing up my past troubles on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


Went out Brittany Spears style
LOL. CCHS was looking for work no "mental breakdown" (laughs) happened.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
LOL LSU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Howdy WUbes.
Looks like that ULL is out of Bonnie's way now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2243. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
so is it still suppose to take a wnw track eventually or not?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2240. bappit
Quoting weatherguy03:


No they arent that hostile or we wouldnt have a TS right now, but I believe people are pointing out the trend so far tonite and the trend is Bonnie is on the downturn because of the various factors that people are pointing out. Noone is downcasting, just pointing out what is happening now. Could she still be a major threat in the GOM down the road?? Sure. Have I seen much better conditions for a tropical system?? You bet!

Admirable statement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On changing blog moods, that has to do with different PEOPLE being on the blog at different times more than anything else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The guillotine, the ULL to the northeast, is coming down to cut Bonnie's throat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cone should shift to the right based on 00z model guidance. Guess I'm a wishcaster for following the models. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2234. angiest
Quoting hurricaster:


Have you had a chance to view the latest Euro model on the "Pro" site. Seems to definitely agree with your assumption. Bonnie may be the decoy for Colin.


Sucker punch. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2233. Patrap
501
fxus62 kmfl 230147 cca
afdmfl


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
945 PM EDT Thursday Jul 22 2010


Update...Tropical Storm Bonnie currently over the southern
Bahamas, is moving northwest towards the northern Keys. Looking at
the current CIRA tpw image, the pwat's north of the system are
above 2 Standard deviations of normal. The potential for very
heavy rainfall is very possible. The possibility of tornadoes or
waterspouts are still minimal. Have updated the zone forecast product to make some
adjustments for tonight and Friday. No changes expected except for any
updates coming from the NHC.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 757 PM EDT Thursday Jul 22 2010/


Aviation...
tropical depression 3 has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Bonnie. So far extreme outer rainbands are confined to outer
Atlantic waters. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail the remainder
of the evening hours into the early morning hours on Friday. Prob30 for
thunderstorms and rain assigned to East Coast terminals from 09z to 15z. Winds begin
to increase around 06z and continue to increase through 16z to
about 25 knots with thunderstorms in the vicinity assigned all terminals around that time.
Based on current forecast track...T.S. Bonnie approaches central
Florida Keys around 18z Friday.


60


Previous discussion... /issued 431 PM EDT Thursday Jul 22 2010/


Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for South
Florida for tonight into Friday...
Flood Watch in effect for all of South Florida late tonight
into Friday...


Discussion...
depression #3 over the southern Bahama Islands is forecast by the
National Hurricane Center to move to the west northwest tonight
and through the Florida Keys on Friday and into the southern Gulf
of Mexico Friday night. This will allow for the outer feeder bands
from depression #3 to start to effect South Florida around 6z
tonight and continue to increase over the County Warning Area on Friday...before
decreasing from east to west Friday night. So will keep the probability of precipitation
at 60 percent East Coast down to 30 percent West Coast for
tonight. For Friday...the probability of precipitation have been increased to 70 to 80
percent over the County Warning Area with 50 percent across the County Warning Area on Friday night.


As depression #3 continues to move through the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend fore casted by the National Hurricane Center...South
Florida will be in a deep southeast tropical air mass on Saturday
before decreasing on Sunday. So will raise the probability of precipitation to numerous for
Saturday over all of South Florida...and keep scattered probability of precipitation over
the area on Sunday.


For rainfall amounts across South Florida from this
system...please refer to the Hydro section below. For more weather
impacts and the watch/warning status over South Florida...please
see the latest local tropical cyclone statement.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
I can see you fine Buhdog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2231. bappit
Quoting pipelines:


where are you getting the information that a dry slot has existed at 500 mb for days? and if this was the case, how would the MLC even work it's way down to the surface earlier today and form an LLC?

500 mb is around 18000 feet roughly. Not much works its way down to the surface from that far up. The MLC was probably a fair bit lower. I don't think of 500 mb as mid level (though some on the board talk as if it were). Maybe some soundings from the vicinity could clear things up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC is suppose to be changing the forecasted models in 15 mins but not much. In the meantime, I think that she has convection blowing up BUT becoming disorganized and elongated. Perhaps that is why SOME look at it and think that it is strengthening and some say it is weakening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well that weak wave behind Bonnie, currently near the Dominican Republic, could try to be a sneaky little devil once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico after passing over all the Caribbean islands, but the models don't seem too enthused about it right now. I'll be keeping an eye on it. There are also some big fat tropical waves over Africa that should be watched as they come off next week. Cape Verde season is at hand, and it won't be long before these things start developing everywhere.


Have you had a chance to view the latest Euro model on the "Pro" site. Seems to definitely agree with your assumption. Bonnie may be the decoy for Colin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Can I be a wishcaster too?? :)
If ya' wanna join the party. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
With an upper level low to the west and an upper level low to the northeast right now, it appears that outflow for Tropical Storm Bonnie has become restricted once again. Definitely not the most favorable upper level environment and couple that (pun intended) with the decoupled mid and low level centers, conditions aren't that favorable for any real strengthening to occur. It really needs to pull something amazing to see anything beyond a weak tropical storm around 50 mph from Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Buhdog:
been a member since 2005 and finally used (show average)....amazing how many people get hidden Now I am hoping after rarely posting in 5 years if I am going to be hidden myself! :{ and since I am finally using + and -

SLU + for that bonnie history!
Hey there, compadre... u aren't the only one. I'm still using [show bad], but I may bump up to show average myself to see how bad it is.

What' ur view on Bonnie?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Great! I guess you could call CCHS a wishcaster too.


Can I be a wishcaster too?? :) Also by the way great update from Levi on his blog.. props.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
There are too many downcasters on here tonight, I'll be back on later. Frustrated a bit after showing maps and facts that conditions are not hostile to back up my statement and I still get pointed out wrong. You guys got wayy too much of hurrikat (stormtop) this evening.


No they arent that hostile or we wouldnt have a TS right now, but I believe people are pointing out the trend so far tonite and the trend is Bonnie is on the downturn because of the various factors that people are pointing out. Noone is downcasting, just pointing out what is happening now. Could she still be a major threat in the GOM down the road?? Sure. Have I seen much better conditions for a tropical system?? You bet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Not because of strength but I'm impressed how it fights off adverse conditions and takes advantage of every little opportunity.


so... no future in the GOM??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Cool pic earthly


TY Gambler
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683

Viewing: 2269 - 2219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
72 °F
Scattered Clouds